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Defending Pat Burrell's Decade Value

We don't do this often, but sometimes I feel like some of these things need to be addressed. I've always said at DRaysBay we cover the Rays and not the media surrounding them. However, the Rays aren't doing much right now and some of these statements are a bit egregious.

First, we had Ken Rosenthal saying the Rays (along with the Blue Jays and Orioles) should just give up on 2010 because, in his opinion, the Yankees and Red Sox had a superior front-four starting rotations. In a less offensible article, Jayson Stark has released his Least Valuable player for the 00s or Aught's.

The list in general isn't a problem. Without giving specifics about his reasoning behind the list, he named Juan Gonzalez the LVP of the decade. He does mention that production, salary and expectations are all variables among other things, but again nothing specific about how the actual order was selected. Without examining every player's case, it's hard to argue with the pick of Gonzalez. Despite missing half the decade, he earned a ton of money for basically nothing. WAR only dates back to 2002, but from 2002-2005 he made nearly $50 million dollars and was worth less than two and a half wins above replacement level combined. That's pretty un-valuable.

The problem I have with the list come at: #8 Pat Burrell. Without any explanation, I'm really not sure how Stark came to this conclusion, especially when Sidney Ponson ranked #9. This means to Stark, Ponson was somehow more valuable than PtB all things considered. Honestly, If Burrell had still been with the Phillies there is a good chance that I see the list and don't think twice. However, since he's with the Rays, and I, as well as all of you, have become very familiar with his career, I don't see how he was the eight least valuable player in the decade.

Star-divide

Pat Burrell made a lot of money in the 2000s; somewhere in the neighborhood of $65 million dollars give or take with incentives and bonuses. Again going back to the WAR genesis of 2002, Burrell has given his teams $70 million dollars in "production" meaning that he was been worth his contracts overall. The value in dollars also doesn't count 2000 and 2001 in which he posted wOBA's of .358 and .348 over nearly 1,000 PAs. He wasn't overpaid nor was he underpaid by much. With that being said, I don't see how he wasn't valuable for an entire decade in which he hit .254/.363/.475 and averaged 26 home runs, 26 doubles and a wOBA of .362. He was also a member of world championship team, which should probably count.

This raises the subject of falling short of expectations. Here are the words straight from Stark:

"No, friends, to win an LVP requires a certain level of expectation, of building up hopes and then squashing them, like a tractor running over a cantaloupe."

Ok, then.

In 1998, Pat Burrell was the "1/1" a.k.a. first overall selection MLB Amateur Draft. That alone comes along with a ton of expectations. Add in the city to which he was drafted, Philadelphia, and you can imagine the build up for The Bat. The problem with expectations is rarely do players live up to them; especially ones drafted at the top of the board. Looking at the two players to preceded Burrell at number one, neither Kris Benson nor Matt Anderson live up to hype, and currently, neither is on a 25-man roster in the Majors. The two players who superseded Burrell have both had MLB success, but there is one that definitely fell well short of the type.

Drafted in 2000 by the Florida Marlins, Adrian Gonzalez has lived up to the billings of a top pick and is now one of the most underappreciated players in the game. However, the player right before Gonzalez and right after Burrell was...Josh Hamilton.

Whatever the expectations for Burrell were, right or wrong, the expectations for Hamilton were 10 times that. He was the can't miss kid. THE Tampa Bay Devil Rays franchise. He was the Natural, damn it! The story doesn't need to be re-hashed, but  for a variety of reasons Hamilton never did and never will come close to fulfilling the hype.

No doubt, Hamilton had a monster 2008 season, but even if he has five more seasons just like that it still falls sort of the sure first ballot hall of fame career many expected. Outside of that 2008 season, Hamilton has two other seasons in which he's failed to accumulate 400 plate appearances due to injury. For what it's worth, Hamilton been worth 8.2 WAR in his three seasons that fall within the decade in which he was expected to dominate. That, to borrow a phrase from Carson Cistulli, is the "proverbial" tractor squashing the cantaloupe.

Then there is the expectations of living up to a contract. Once more without looking at every eligible player, one name sticks out to me that is nowhere on Stark's list. I'm sure most of you remember that in 2001 Mike Hampton signed a ridiculous eight-year $121 million dollar contract with the Rockies. I think it's fair to say Hampton didn't live up to the contract. In the 2000s combined (including 2000 before he signed the contract) he pitched just over 1,000 innings with just 259 of them coming in the last five seasons. It wasn't Hampton's fault he was built out of glass, but that shouldn't exclude him from the list nor make him more valuable than Burrell, who fulfilled his deal with adequate production (at least with Philadelphia).

In the end, it's a subjective list and much to do about nothing on a slow news day. Nonetheless, I think it's pretty unfair to label a player, who has produced for the better par tof the decade, and has lived up to the hype a lot closer than others, as one of the least valuable of the past 10 seasons.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments |

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I am glad you posted this

as I was thinking of linking to it with a similar criticism. As you say, were he not a Ray I might not have reacted much, but he is, so I do. In any case, I think including him was silly and probably based entirely on his disappointing 2009. For the rest of the decade, even if he did not live up to the super-stardom often expected (unfairly) of #1 picks, he was certainly a productive player.

By the way, another suggestion for his list is Darren Dreifort. He signed his big contract with LA in 2000, and he was the #2 pick in 1993, a pitcher who had great expectations attached to him. After signing the contract, he provided the Dodgers 204.6 IP of sub-par pitching between 2001 and 2004 and that was it.

by bobr on Dec 24, 2009 2:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I browsed through that list and caught a few names, no one got me riled up.

Your point on Pat is right on. Somehow missed Mike Hampton not being on there, he has to be the most disappointing pitcher of this decade, perhaps alongside a few other big contract guys (Park, Dreifort).

by SFiercex4 on Dec 24, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I felt the same way after reading this article

If we’re going to talk about players who were disapointments and never lived up to expectations, what about Griffey Jr? According to fg, he has been worth 5.1 WAR, or $16.1 million since 2002, but paid $97.1 million over that time span. This was a player going home who was supposed to bring the Reds back to the top of the National League. Talk about disappointments.

by ReyL on Dec 24, 2009 3:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

B..But Josh Hamilton love Jesus and is a Christian and a feel good story!

Honestly Tommy, you bring these horrible articles to the attention to us and it just fills me with hate. Please stop.

I miss George Steinbrenner. He was the man responsible for keeping the Yankees competitive.

by kericr on Dec 24, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Trading Burrell

Point taken re his decade value. But as to 2010, is there ANY trade of Burrell that makes sense for the Rays and any other team. I wondered about Burrell for Carmona but Hafner probably has a lock on the DH spot if healthy. Perhaps Burrell to the Royals for Cruz or Farnsworth (not a big proponent – but either trade would open up a few dollars to possibly sign someone like Guerrero, Dye, DeRosa, Cust, or even Sheffield or Gomes). The thought of sitting at the Trop in 2010 through another barrage of pathetic Burrell “slider away x3” ABs is devastating my holiday psyche.

by crawdelli on Dec 24, 2009 9:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Would any of those trades lead to the Rays having better value?

Burrell was terrible in ‘09, but would the Rays be in any better position with Cust, Sheff, or Gomes? (I left out the others due to a much higher cost). If you weigh predicted outcomes, I just don’t see the others presenting more potential value than Burrell.

Burrell would be just the type of players we’d want the Rays to take a chance on if he wasn’t a Ray in ’09.

by tallyray on Dec 25, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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