OTTOTD: Is USF actually putting a good basketball team on the court?
by kericr on Dec 3, 2009 11:17 AM EST
Email
PrintI'll be perfectly clear that Basketball is not a sport of mine. Basketball ranks just above soccer as a sport that I would actually follow, and this goes for both college and the pros. That being said, I couldn't help but notice that USF has gotten off to a 7-1 start, with their only loss against South Carolina on the road, in their tournament. USF has looked like they might possibly be better then awful the last couple of years, but oddly enough, their victories this year have been universally decisive, and their loss was a close one. So I did some digging around and found a couple of statistical predictors.
First, USA Today's Jeff Sagarin has a conference and team analyzer which gives every 1A team a rating based on percieved quality; the higher being better, lower, worse. The Big East is the most powerful conference in this predictor, with USF ranking 50th in the country. This is countered a bit by the fact that USF is 12th in the conference.
Also, Ken Pomeroy has been featured in the WSJ around bracket time and hosted a chat on Baseball Prospectus and is considered to be a quality basketball numbers guy. His current analysis ranks USF 40th in the nation (Pomeroy doesn't have a confrence strength predictor).
Now, if these numbers heald up, would that mean USF might make the NCAA tournament? Probably not; taking 12 teams from the Big East would be downright absurd, and getting beat up by your conference opponents would probably take that possibility out of the equation. But an NIT berth might not be out of the question. Here's to hoping we're number 66!
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
109 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Anything that says Cuse is the 4th best team in the country and the BEast is the best conference is cool with me
The question isn’t so much when they will lose, but if. It’s a tough conference, but they don’t start heavily playing conference teams until late December-most of January. I could see them pissing away a game like their next one, coming off a long stretch of not playing is always tough.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:30 AM EST reply actions
Now, bring some fans
I heard attendance has been awful. We (UCF) have been drawing some great crowds this year – 4500 for D-II Newberry, the other night and we’re the 2nd youngest team in the entire nation with only 1 senior (coach’s son, walk-on) 2 upper classmen (starting power forward, backup shooting guard) and the rest freshman or sophs.
Should be a fun game at the Sun Dome on the 16th, but we haven’t played terribly well on the road except when we beat Auburn up in Daytona Beach last month which was like a home game because we had over 1,000 fans there.
I never even had a chance to check out the new arena
Is Jordan playing at all?
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
UCF is very image-oriented
Anything that gets them more exposure, they will do. Anything. He doesn’t even have to play, but they can use his name to market the program for the next couple of years.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Wasn't Jordan's fault
That whole thing was all on some bad communication within the Addidas management. Expect Nike or Under Armour to pick up UCF very soon
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
New arena is amazing
Jordan sometimes starts at the 2 guard and gets around 15-17 minutes a contest. Shot looks pretty good but the best phase of his game right now is his defense. He really smothers the defenders with pressure and position.
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
I wish Jermain had stuck around another year.
Give him 4 elite defenders and just let him do it all on offense, that team still might have made it to the big dance. Then who knows, Gary Johnson almost single-handedly slayed the dreaded UCONN Pusskies.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Yea, he was awesome to watch last year as a senior
One thing about Kirk’s teams – they always over-achieve and are fundamentally sound.
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
He's a great guy
I worked at the Fazoli’s on University across from campus for my first 3 years of school, and 2-3 times a week during the season Kirk would bring the team in for lunch. His teams were always humble, said please and thank you, and cleaned up after themselves. No ego’s that I could see in the bunch. He’s a hell of a coach, I hope they don’t replace him with some name guy in order to get more recognition of the program. Dexter Lyons might have been my favorite to come in, that guy was awesome.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Don't ask, don't tell
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Dexter was terrific
I worked at the BK across the street from that Fazoli’s from 93 to 95 when I graduated. I worked 60 hrs a week through school so I rarely had a chance to go to games. I would get to peek into games at the old gym in the ed building before they built the 1st UCF Arena. My first full game was back in Dexter’s 1st year at UCF and I’ve been a season ticket holder since.
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
People don't come out to USF games, that's just a fact of life.
Part of it is because the team has been pretty bad the last several years, part of it is because the Sundome looks and feels like a stadium that belongs in an 80s movie about high-school basketball, and part of it is because nobody cares about basketball in the Tampa Bay Area.
I’m sure if they suddenly start winning then they’ll fill the place up, but even then, that’s a max capacity of about 10k.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
USF attendance has always sucked before second semester starts
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Oh My God. You're UCFKnights from RaysBB
The vigilante broke out a stained window, snaked a garden hose in, turned the water on, & let it sit... all fucking night, niiiiice! Even i've never thought ov that one before! Hundreds ov gallons ov water flooded the chapel & basment, resulting in thousands ov dollars in damage - or improvement, depending upon how you look at it. And with weathering being the way it is here in the NorthWest, such exstensive water damage will [no doubt] result in some much-needed toxic black mold. That's what you've gotta do with these filthy goddamn christian cockroaches, you gotta flood 'em out!
In short the answer is "no."
Once they get into league play they will get destroyed.
Their sched. so far with the RPI (which doesn’t mean much) of the opponent:
SMU (250)
UVA (148)
Davidson (268)
USC (53)
UNCW (230)
Kent. St (118)
FAU (246)
Hampton (249)
Who did Wake lose too?
How do you guys already have 2 losses?
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
William and fucking Larry and Purdue
The W&M loss was the worst home loss since 1987. I think the entire fanbase is ready to kill the staff. We are awful. Worst coached team in America.
Home OOC losses since 1987:
-Siena 1987
- Furman 1987
- Coastal 1987 (wow, the 1987-8 Deacs were bad!)
- Richmond 1988
-Colorado 1991
- Cal 1993
- Utah 1997
- Arkansas 1998
- Cincy 2002
- Depaul 2005
- UGA 2006
W&M may be worse than Siena, Coastal and Furman, but at best, this is WF worst home loss in 22 years. In fact the only loss, home or away, that is comparable over that period was the loss @ Alaska(Anchorage) in1993. FWIW, that WF team (the 1993-4 Deacs) made the NCAAs.
It's karma for not fighting that guy
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
You said that Purdue game would be a toughie, apparently they can ball
W&M is a dreadful loss on the other hand. Might as well cancel the program, there’s always money in the women’s swim team.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
I know... I know.
I just can’t fathom losing to W&M at home… by 10.
The conference looks terrible right now. Absolutely dreadful.
That USA Today article has every team above 100 with most floating in the 30-50 range
We’re a week in, not counting Tourneys, anything can happen.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Oh I know, but the talent just seems drained and our coach sucks.
The only teams with NBA talent are us, UNC, and GaTech. 2 of the three have awful coaching staffs.
FWIW, that article has Duke #2 in the land
I haven’t seen them play yet, but I’m sure CBS will make sure that I get a game a week.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
They got beatdown by Wiscy last night.
They have one legit NBA talent (that isn’t a frosh because I don’t know much about this year’s class).
Awesome
I hope I see the Duke fans at the bar that a week ago were rooting for UNC to beat Cuse.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
I won't disagree with the week schedule, or finishing with a losing conference record
But I think ‘destroyed’ might be a bit too strong of a word for this team. The last five years they’ve sent out a variety of teams that have played similar non-conference schedules, struggle against those teams, then proceed to get summarily destroyed in conference play with a variety of 2 and 3 win seasons. I wouldn’t put any hope of them competing in the Big East this year, but if they went 7-11 or 8-10 and just missed the divisional tourney, that’s a massive step up from the last several years.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
False.
Playoff participants vs. maximum number eligible:
NHL: 16 of 30: 53.3%
NBA: 16 of 30: 53.3%
NFL: 12 of 32: 37.5%
MLB: 8 of 30: 26.7%
NCAA Basketball: 64 of 340: 18.8%
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
And if you want to count the NIT as 'postseason' basketball, that raises it to 28.2%, and you can add another quarter of a point if you want to count the 65th playoff team.
My point is, Plenty of good teams don’t make the tournament, it’s the most exclusive playoff tornament in major sports.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Yup
Don’t really know how they’re doing, but I expected them to be pretty mediocre this year. Probably the third best team in an awful SEC. I was just talking with my coworker, and outside of the Big East’s 1,327 teams we couldn’t come up with another good conference this year. The ACC sucks, UCLA sucking kills the PAC10, the SEC West is awful, etc.
That UF-SU on the 10th should be a barn-burner. Lots of points me thinks.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Gators are playing much better D than last year
I haven’t seen Cuse yet, so not sure what to expect. College sports outside UF were largely a marital sacrifice.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Were other women part of the marital sacrifice also
or are you going to pull a Lee Caz?
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Lee Kaz has gone ghost
I hope he isn’t laying in a neighbor’s yard after being beaten with a wedge
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I heard 3 iron as opposed to wedge
Seriously
Signature space available for rent - Got to pay the bills somehow
Lee Kazmir doesn't play on long enough courses to use anything but wedges and putter
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
I can tell you that Cuse can do it at both ends.
Bring your artillery because the inside of the zone has looked nasty so far. Cal jacked a ton of 3’s and made a lot of them too, while UNC tried to bang inside and shoot jumpers and mostly found that hard to do. As always, if a team can jack from deep (Fucking Vermont Catamounts can lick my chode) then Cuse will have to outscore them. Big Wes Johnson can do it all while Rautins has in the gym range. Triche is a nice little quick PG while Arinze has really stepped up his footwork inside. He’s a hoss, so you better have a big post defender with quicks. I really like this Orange team after not knowing what to expect when Devenjerk, Flynn, and Harris left.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Good. They needed a platoon at 2B.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Yeah Utley's OPS drops to .995 against lefties.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
He's a liability.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
You have to think that he will be a Feliz clone over there
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Way better with the stick though.
He’s averaged 3.8 WAR over the last 3 years, and Feliz only 1.8. If it really is 3/18 I like that deal for them a lot.
Oh me too
I’d say he’s around a +8 defender at 2nd, but his bat has been trending down for 3 straight years now. He has never walked so he may not age so gracefully. I’m just glad he didn’t end up in Boston. Dude would put holes in the monster.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Please accept arb Beltre.
Please don’t go to Boston.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 3, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
If any of you guys like Larry David or Woody Allen, or more specifically Evan Rachel Wood
I watched Whatever Works last night and thought it was a pretty good flick.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions
I like woody allen
Larry David is “so-so” w/ me. I haven’t seen the movie that you are talking about, I have heard good things and will probably take a look at it.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 3, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
College hoops talk<<<soccer talk
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Scintillating take.
Season’s done. If the CL group wasn’t so easy, this team might be out of 3 competitions.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
They've been liable defensively from go.
Undersized everywhere on the pitch. Lacking in depth. Perpetually crippled by injury. It’s the same song and dance every year.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
I was trying to make you feel better, but, yeah, they may not even finish Top 4 this year.
‘pool and City are sleeping dogs and it’s going to take mass injuries to keep Spurs out.
I reserve true heartbreak only for the Rays and Bucs.
While it would be nice to see Arsenal win something, the structure of the sport prohibits me from ever getting my hopes up for anything.
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
scratching my nuts with sandpaper >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> anything soccer
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
boom, headshot
FREE SPEACH is a myth. There is no such thing as 100% free speech. You cannot go into a movie theater and say "FIRE"!…"What? I have freedom of speach!" Bull. Doesnt work that way. Any real lawyer will tell you that.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Dec 3, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
AFL closure
From Chastain:
“Mitch did everything we asked of him,” Lukevics said. "He went out there, he made his starts, and he got innings that he sorely needed after missing over two months of the season for Durham.
“So he went out there with the intent to prove that he was healthy and to prove that he can compete, and he did that. So we accomplished our goals with Mitch Talbot in the Arizona Fall League.”
“Nevin did a nice job out there,” Lukevics said. “Nevin went out there with the intent of improving his bat, and he showed what he’s capable of doing. It was good to see Nevin competing out there and improving his bat. We hope that carries into next season.”
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
We hope that carries into next season.
It probably won’t since nothing matters from AFL.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
I believe Nevin will be the starter in Montgomery
and if he plays well, could beat out Jaso in mid-season for Durham.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 3, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
USF is an "alright" team in a great conference.
I think they could make a run at an Sun-Belt conference championship, but they are w/ a bunch of heavy weights and first-class middle weights. Once conference play starts they will wilt like they always do. don’t get me wrong, I love me some Bulls, but this is not going to be their time nor anytime in the near future.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 3, 2009 1:23 PM EST reply actions
Actually, this team now would probably wreck the sun belt; but if USF were in the sun belt confrence, there's no way they could put together a team this good.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
It takes time to recruit - plus facilities
UCF finally got a great class this past year with Clanton (#68th nationally), Jordan, Garcia, and Scott. 2 years ago, we’re never getting a Top 100 guy to even return a phone call. The new arena plus getting an all-conference invite has made a world of difference. We haven’t had a juco guy in 2 seasons and in the past, half our team would be juco transfers.
by Jason Collette on Dec 3, 2009 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Losing the Graham boys was a tough blow
They wanted to leave because we didn’t have all the things you mentioned. They could have gone down in the ranks of Daunte and Assante.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I saw that on the front page just now.
I get the move, but I was looking forward to seeing what he could do in spring training.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 3, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
No idea, roll with 3.2 for now and you can always update the reference later.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Well its important for what I'm doing
I’m trying to remove the defensive bias from FIP so I need apples to apples
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Go to B-Ref, get the AL numbers, figure out the AL FIP, then subtract that number from the AL ERA, that's your constant.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 3, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
We're number two
2. Rays: Talk about top-heavy. Every system would love to have two big league-ready right-handers like Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson, who both have stuff, command and success at the upper levels. And neither of them is even the Rays’ top prospect — that honor goes to five-tool center fielder Desmond Jennings, whose only issue is durability. In between Triple-A and low Class A, the Rays are a bit thin, but they have a bevy of power arms at the lower levels, led by left-hander Matt Moore.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/index.html?eref=twitter_feed#ixzz0YeXvmcQH
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription
You need a disclosure stating that you are only advertising that link because they gave you a free NFl team jacket and tee
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
SI sucks, and so does this blog. You're a fucking tool RJ, blow it out your ass.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
A FREE NFL TEAM JACKET?
Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"
Lingire Football League opener for the Tampa Breeze tomorrow at the Forum.
It’s like football and mud wrestling all put into one!
Sign lady must die.
the girl's put fear into me.
I am still trying to figure out if that is a bad thing or a good thing.
Blah!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 3, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
And the local team's website:
http://www.lflus.com/tampabreeze/
Also, they’re out of their god damn mind if they think I’d consider going at $27.50 a ticket, especially with $11.50 of that going to ticketraper.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Oh, and that's for the cheap seats. Prices rack up to over $100 if you want to get up close.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
But at the front row
you’re so close you can smell the silicone
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I can get that close to women who are naked for as little as $1.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
McDonald's Value Menu strikes again
It’s an aphrodisiac.
I'm a writer.
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 3, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I suppose that would work, but I don't think the strippers would be too thrilled about me trying to stuff a double-cheeseburger into their thong.
I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
