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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Why Talbot Is The New Hammel

A majority of focus from the Aubrey Huff trade has been centered on Ben Zobrist for the past year and a half, and rightfully so.  His hard swinging, OBP machine, super-utility man routine took baseball by storm in 2009; even going as far as getting him more than the token MVP vote (8th place!).   If Zobrist comes anywhere close to duplicating his 2009 numbers in the team-controlled seasons left on his contract then that will go down as one of the bigger trade coups in recent memory.  Getting lost in all of the Zobrist hoopla is the other player involved in that trade, Mitch Talbot.  
 
When the deal took place it was Talbot, not the light hitting shortstop Zobrist, who was the more prized ‘get’.  Here are Talbot's FIPs for each season in the Rays' minor league system:

2006(AA):  2.81

2007(AAA): 4.00

2008(AAA): 3.03

2009(AAA): 3.55 


The numbers are pretty good, but in an organization that was/is as pitching rich as the Rays there was never room for him.  He wasn’t polished enough to earn a shot with the 2007 rotation, 2008 saw the additions of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine to fill two vacancies, while David Price, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis filled the voids in 2009.  The 2010 rotation looks to be the Rays strongest yet.  In another organization with less pitching depth Talbot would surely have been given a substantial shot in the Major Leagues by now. 
 
With Spring Training approaching faster and faster the annual rosterbation games that we all play begin to creep up. What free agents are signed? Who gets traded? Who makes it? Who doesn’t?  In the case of Mitch Talbot, unfortunately the answer appears to be the latter.  Talbot is out of options, and will need to make the 25 man roster to avoid being put on waivers, where he would be plucked off rather quickly.  He’s not making the rotation, so we can skip that and move to the bullpen.  Since it appears the Rays will go with a four man bench that leaves them with a seven man bullpen.  Let’s take a look at the candidates:
 
Howell
Wheeler
Cormier
Balfour
Sonny
Chavez
Thayer
Talbot
LOOGY
 
 
The first four are virtual locks.  Cormier is arb1 eligible, so theoretically they could non-tender him, but he’s not likely to get a big raise in arb anyway (h/t Tommy).  There are some reverse split guys in that grouping, but Joe Maddon enjoys his LOOGYs, making R.J. Swindle or Brian Shouse (should he accept arbitration) prime candidates for that role.  After that you have five pitchers for two spots, and with Sonnanstine, Chavez, and Thayer having options remaining it makes Talbot look that much less attractive.  That’s without bringing into the equation the high likelihood of the Rays signing one or more free agent relievers, which they’re wont to do. 
 
If you add all of that up, barring some major injury, the forecast for Talbot being in a Rays’ uniform next season looks grim at best.  The team was in a similar situation last off-season with Jason Hammel, and ended up trading him to Colorado where he turned in a pretty decent season.  I would imagine Talbot will have the same fate.  Where Talbot and Hammel differ is their MLB experience.  At the time Hammel was dealt he had served over a year at the Major League level; Talbot has about ten innings.  Even though they’ll have no leverage, the front office will not let an asset walk away for nothing.  They don’t have that luxury.  They’ll move him for a low to mid-level prospect who will provide more organizational depth.  Then Talbot will merely be an answer to a trivia question, the "other guy" in the Aubrey Huff trade, a feint memory to most Rays fans.  I always liked Talbot and believe he still has a future in the league somewhere; that somewhere just doesn't appear to be here.

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Shapiro is an early bird

All things being equal, I’d probably rather lose Talbot at this point just to keep the waves of talent thing level. However, we are likely to lose Aneury in the Rule Five anyhow, possibly for good.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 4, 2009 8:33 AM EST up reply actions  

That's why it's better for the Indians and Rays if Shapiro selects Aneury

We only lose one player and the Indias don’t have to keep him on MLB roster all season

Watch, it ’ll probably be Johnson

by sternfan1 on Dec 4, 2009 8:37 AM EST up reply actions  

That would be excellent

Then there would be a chance Aneury would come home to roost at some point

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 4, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Confusing

but my interpretation is that if the Indians select Aneury in the Rule 5 draft, he could only be traded to the Indians after they had exposed him to waivers and the rest of the league passed on him. If the Indians select him and have to keep him on the 25 man all year then they effectively got nothing for Shoppach because they could have done that anyway. That’s why I don’t think it’s Aneury. I’m not an expert on this stuff so correct me if I’m wrong.

by MickS on Dec 4, 2009 9:39 AM EST reply actions  

Here's what i think. The reason Aneury

is eligible for the Rule 5 is because we didn’t place him on the 40 man. I’m suggesting that if the Indians before the Rule 5 draft select him and place him on their 40 man, they can option him to the minors

However, i’m not sure this is correct

by sternfan1 on Dec 4, 2009 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Not correct

He can’t be traded or taken off the Rule 5 selection list until after the Rule 5 Draft. Rule 5 players are frozen on the list now. And if he was selected by the Indians in the draft, the Tribe has to add him to the active (25 man) roster. To be able to send him down to the minors he has to clear waivers and then offered back to the Rays. Only then could the Rays use him to fulfill the PTBNL for Shoppach, an unlikely scenario.

by MickS on Dec 4, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe he could be optioned down and remain on the 40 without going through waivers

James Skelton was a rule 5 selection who was traded after the fact to the team that selected him.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 4, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

One difference between Hammel and Talbot...

Hammel brought his gastank with him every trip he made to the mound for the Rays in ‘08. That probably hurt his stock a bit and made the Rays less likely to keep him around in the BP. I’d prefer to keep Talbot and put him to use in the BP. Ideally, the BP will be constructed like this (from highest to lowest leverage):

Howell
Sonny
Balfour
Wheeler
Cormier
Chavez
Talbot

by rglass44 on Dec 4, 2009 9:52 AM EST reply actions  

That was such a crazy game

Percival walks em loaded and then unlikely hero prevails.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 4, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Yup

Almost mentioned it.

by rglass44 on Dec 4, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I almost think that was his turning point.

After that performance, Maddon started sending him out in higher-leverage situations where he didn’t pitch all that poorly outside of a game in Detroit. It was only about 8 performances, but he seemed like a different pitcher the rest of the season. I don’t miss him, but that’s still my favorite non-playoff memory from that season.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 5, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Tony Lastoria

The guy who originally posited that it could be Aybar, has been talking to someone and threw this out there on his message board:

No surprise, but got confirmation that Aybar is indeed not in consideration. In an attempt to clear the matter up more, I am now even more confused as I was told there is a reason December 20th was chosen and it ties in with arbitration somehow (but was told I cannot be told why). Also was told ANY player is available.

And added:

Yeah, definitely a mystery. Though I was pointed in the right direction and told that it is “likely” a prospect deal and for a pitcher. We’ll see where it goes from there.

As to my comment about anyone being available, I didn’t mean it that we could get any of their top prospects just that from what I was told anyone is available meaning there are no rule restrictions on who we can get (like the PTBNL rule). It wasn’t explained more since they did not want to get deeper into why and could not tell me….but I am puzzled by it. Maybe there is a way to circumvent some of the roster rules.

And finally, when I sent him an e-mail trying to flesh it out:

I know I am curious as to who the PTBNL ends up being, sounds like it could be for an interesting pitcher. There were several teams in on Shoppach, so the Indians settled for this deal because they had to like their two options they had to choose from. We’ll see.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 4, 2009 10:06 AM EST reply actions  

I really wouldn't like to see talbot moved like Hammel was

I felt that our depth made moving Hammel an obligation, because he wasn’t really a high-leverage reliever type (his pitching style lends him much more to starting). Talbot, I think, could be pretty good in the BP. I think it’s worth it to give him a realistic shot there, if for no other reason than to give the Rays some negotiation room with other teams about trading him.

by staplemaniac on Dec 4, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions  

Agreed

I think he could be very good out of the BP. I doubt anything we get for him right now provides the impact he will to this team. Short term returns are worth more than long-term.

by rglass44 on Dec 4, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure I buy Talbot as a 'worse' option by not having options.

I also don’t think that Sonny would have to pitch very well in spring training to earn a spot on this team. That’s how bad his last year was.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 5, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

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