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Tampa Bay Rays Reportedly Interested In Roy Halladay; Wade Davis and B.J. Upton Possible Return?

Update: The godfather, Peter Gammons reports the Rays have denied interest in swapping Davis + Upton for Halladay. However, his report doesn't deny the Rays did some tire kicking. which we would all expect them to do. It is fun to think about Halladay in a Rays uniform, but it remains highly unlikely that anything goes past the feeling out stage.

UPDATE: ESPN's Peter Gammons quips via the Hot Stove that "The Rays have flatly denied their interest in discussing Wade Davis and B.J. Upton for Roy Halladay."

In another Fox Sports report, The Rays are actively shopping Dioner Navarro and are likely to non-tender him if a deal isn't reached by Friday's deadline to tender a contract. Neither scenario, trade or non-tender, is a surprise.

Foxsports

The Rayshave asked Toronto officials about Halladay, according to one major league source, and might be willing to offer star pitching prospect Wade Davis and outfielder B.J. Upton.

Toronto could then flip Upton to a third team.

This isn't the first time that the Rays have shown interest in the Toronto ace. They made a strong push in July, sources said.

Halladay would need to waive his no-trade clause in order for the deal to happen, and it's not clear if he would be willing to do so. But he resides in the Tampa Bay area, so spending one season with the Rays could appeal to him.



So much for ragtag catchers and recycled relievers. While this report seems to come out of nowhere, it seems entirely possible that the Rays would show interest. As the report states, the Rays made a play for Halladay this summer, so it's natural that they would try again. As is the case with 99% of these scenarios it probably won't play out, but stranger things have happened.

For such a trade to take place, it would be a clear indication of the Rays ditching their "thinking long-term" efforts in order to hit big right now. This type of move would be very uncharacteristic of the Rays. Andrew Friedman has yet to acquire an established big name via trade, and it would be really hard to see him doing so within the division. A year of Roy Halladay would be great, but at the cost of three years of B.J. Upton and six years of Wade Davis, I just don't see him doing that.

The Rays could very well have interest in Halladay, but could also be doing their do diligence and seeing exactly what Toronto is asking just to keep tabs on the other teams vying for his services or try and raise the market for one of their competitors.

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So let's see...

1 year of Halladay>9 years of Davis and Upton…. No thanks.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:28 PM EST reply actions  

???

And Kaz had a big contract, EJ was in line for a big raise, and Brignac isnt an elite prospect. Upton is still relatively cost controlled, and Davis is obviously cost controlled. I dont see any similarities.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

yea that would've been awesome

--Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
--Someone should slap Larry Brown and bring him back to reality..

by raysfan81 on Dec 7, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed...

I dont see this trade even being an option, unless the Rays feel like Upton wont rebound and Davis will never become anything more then a #4. Like I said, I dont see it.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I agree; They have the depth to cover losing Upton, but I don't see them trading 6 years of Davis for 1 year of Halladay

With the exception of EITHER extending CC or Halladay.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

My guess...

if the Rays are even discussing this, it is probably just to raise the cost for a team like the Sox or Yanks.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:30 PM EST reply actions  

That would be one hell of a rotation.

But I wouldn’t possibly do this without being able to secure Halladay to a functional, cost-effective extension. It’ll never happen.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 5:31 PM EST reply actions  

This. It would be great to have Halladay, Shields, Garza, Price

But not at the cost of 3 yrs of Upton and 6 of Davis. Even with the additional draft picks from Halladay.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, lol at Fox's poll:

Would the Rays be dumb enough to trade Upton for Doc?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions  

This line sums up my feelings
try and raise the market for one of their competitors.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 5:37 PM EST reply actions  

N-O

1 year of Halladay for 6 of Davis…in no way is that a good deal on any level.

by raysfaninminnesota on Dec 7, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't

You still have to pay him $15.75 for the one year, Beej is going to get 2ish maybe more, Davis is making 400K. There is no way you could sell this to me.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel the same way...

Unless the Rays dont see Davis being a legit #3 or better.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I could see him having a Garza-type season next year

He’s paid his dues in the minors and learned a lot of lessons to go with his formidable stuff. I expect big things for Wade.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm still skeptical

His numbers were almost pedestrian in AA and AAA, especially compared to how he dominated the lower levels.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Absolutely

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

In a heartbeat

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Keeping in mind

that if we trade Davis and bring nobody else new up this year, we still have a steady pipeline of SP prospects coming up.

Here’s the rationale, BTW. Forget about the whole 1 year versus 9 year thing.

- Assuming he’s healthy, it’s quite possible that Jennings is an upgrade over Upton right this minute. Maybe he’s not, but at worst indications seem to be that he’s a better defender than Upton. I’m pretty confident that Jennings could outperform BJ’s 2009 in 2010.

- Halliday is a big one-year upgrade over Davis Probably 2 – 3 wins.

- Depth is good, but we probably won’t miss Upton or Davis that much. Even if Halladay leaves and all we get back is draft picks in 2010, there’s still a steady stream of pitching prospects in the pipeline. No Davis means there’s room for Hellickson.

The team is in better position to know our players than we are. As Kevin said above, there are some question marks with Davis. We love Upton here, but maybe the team knows something about his makeup that makes them think that 2009 is the norm and 2007 was the aberration?

I guess my point is that making the deal could be viewed as getting the best team possible on the field now, and not compromising the future more than we’re increasing the chances for a championship in 2010.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

What if we are out of the playoff race in July?

We could package Halladay back up if he is not signing for a friendly deal and ship him off to some NL team like LA or something then too.

by raysrule44 on Dec 7, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Upton is one of the three best defensive centerfielders in baseball.

Let’s not make proclamations that have slim chances of being true.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably

But upgrading the rotation like this and likely remaining at least even in CF while not really killing our future that much is a deal that should be made.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Is he really?

His UZR was great this last year, but SSS, and he was mediocre the year before (albeit while still learning a bit on the job).

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Lets be real....

How often does THIS Rays FO let rumors out like this. This is someone just posturing and increasing the market. The Yanks and Sox know they would be in a lot of trouble next season if Halladay were a Ray.

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions  

Increasing Boston and New York package is a great idea.

This trade won’t happen, but Wade Davis showed a very good final month and his value is pretty high right now. Same with Niemann

by raysrule44 on Dec 7, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Poor B.J Upton

Just when we thought he was going to regress.

Why do you kill threads????

by Some other guy who does not care on Dec 7, 2009 6:04 PM EST reply actions  

I don't think it's only to have a ace for at the least this year

its for competiting in the AL East again

Wade Davis can be replaced by Jeremy Hellickson
B.J Upton by Desmond Jennings

A SP and a CF being dealt wont kill them

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 6:12 PM EST reply actions  

And when Halladay leaves

Toronto would have Davis for 5 years and either Upton for 2 or the prospects they get for him in a trade. That doesn’t help the Rays at all beyond this year.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 6:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

They'll have someone's good young players

Halladay’s getting traded either way.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

this

and Yankees are already great, if the Sox add Doc, we screwed

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

And he likely ends up with the Red Sox or Yanks as a FA

Rather not have him go to one of those teams anyway in 2011 and lose Davis and Upton to the Jays in the process. That’s not the good business.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 6:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

The Angels and Dodgers both have the financial muscle to bid with the Red Sox.

The Yankees are going to sign whoever the hell they want no matter what; I don’t like using them in these types of comparisons anymore.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I feel like the 'trading in division' excuse is a cop out for bad GMs

If you’re getting the better half of the trade, then it shouldn’t matter who the partner is. Just if you screw up and get the worse half of it, then it’s easier for the owner to point the finger at the GM. If part of the reason you’re trading these guys is because you think the league is overvaluing them and you have better options to step into their spots (which is what I think would be the case if they’re serious about this trade), then we shouldn’t be too worried about the team trading away a couple of guys they think aren’t going to peak that high.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

It raises the question of whether we want to help stock another team in the division so that the Yanks and Red Sox (and us) can't just roll them over?

It’s bad enough with 3 really good teams, how much harder would this division be if all 5 could win just about any other division? This is more hypothetical than real so don’t think I’m saying it’s the case.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

*fantastic potential talent

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe the talent isn't as fantastic as we think it is

The front office is in a better position to evaluate them than we are.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

That too

And even I don’t think Upton + Davis for Halladay is a fair deal without something else involved. Halladay for Upton straight I’d take without thinking though. Even without overvaluation, it’s probably somewhere in the middle.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Ryan Howard?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah...

That was a rumor several years ago. I think the Rays are the one’s that turned it down if I remember correctly. It was when Thome was in Philly and blocking Howard. Nice job old regime…

by td32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

CHUCK LAMAR BUILT THIS TEAM

FOR ROCK AND ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

No, it was Baldelli for Howard and Myers

Before Baldelli started getting hurt and when Howard was blocked by Thome in the minors. I was peeved when it didn’t happen.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, I mean next season

CC, Pena, Burrell and Wheeler (mostly) come off the books so they would have the money and they have plenty of in house talent to replace those guys

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 6:33 PM EST reply actions  

Okay, I'll bite

assuming Upton and Davis are traded for Halladay, who could eat 2/3 of that saved $30 MM himself, who are these org guys ready to replace CC, Pena, and Burrell? Maybe there’s a replacement for Wheeler. But where are the 1B, LF and DH in the upper org levels ready to step in? Perhaps LF could be covered by using an asset at 2b and moving Zobrist. The rest – and the plenty, which means more than 1 option to me anyway?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Dec 8, 2009 1:42 AM EST up reply actions  

playing Devil's Advocate...

I actually think this will be a great trade. We haven’t sufficiently replaced Kaz yet..You can speculate all you want about how “great you think Wade Davis will be”. But reality is he had two bad games last season: Against the Yankees, and against the Red Sox…We’ ve got to change the FO culture if we want to be perinneal winner in this division and a trade like this will speak volumes for us

by Luva on Dec 7, 2009 6:35 PM EST reply actions  

Still counts

 IP H BB SO HR HBP BF 2B 3B 1B FIP wOBA
 7.00 3 1 9 1 0 25 1 0 1 2.86 0.192
 2.67 6 4 3 0 0 18 1 0 5 5.40 0.479
 9.00 4 2 10 0 0 31 2 0 2 1.59 0.185
 5.67 7 1 6 0 0 24 0 0 7 1.56 0.293
 7.00 7 3 3 0 0 28 1 0 6 3.58 0.314
 5.00 6 2 5 1 0 24 1 0 4 4.95 0.343

Here’s his FIP/wOBA by start with the components

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

You're correct

Roy Halladay has this line for every game in his career
9.00 2 0 15 0 0 29 0 0 2 (0.18) 0.062

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Sarcasm?

What do you know of sarcasm?

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Not that we can do better in the short term than Halladay

but with a package of Davis and BJ, how far off could that be from getting another ace (Josh Johnson?) or a guy like Adrian Gonzalez (add a B level spect). I just don’t see one year of Halladay as beneficial in the long term plans of this club regardless of how effectively we can replace BJ and Wade internally.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 7, 2009 6:37 PM EST reply actions  

Does it have to be beneficial in the long term

It really helps us in 2010, we have the depth to absorb losing BJ and Wade, and Halladay nets us a 1st rounder and a supplemental pick.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Do we have that depth?

Sure Hellickson is ready to go, but then what? Moore and Barnese are both far away and have some things to work on. Heath Rollins is far away. Talbot doesn’t impress me.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Alex Torres, Alex Cobb, David Newmann

No superstars but those are three back-end types that will start 2010 at AA or higher.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

None have the upside of Davis

Davis’s biggest weaknesses is the walk and lefties and these go hand-in-hand. He is lights out against righties.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Look, I get wanting to have depth

But right now Hellickson is blocked. Yes, someone will (probably) get injured, but I think in this scenario trading Davis for Halladay and letting Hellickson start is a better use of resources than letting Hellickson sit in AAA just in case.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Hellickson is only blocked until Hellickson is deemed ready

Jeff Niemann isn’t blocking someone with Hellicksons talent

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 6:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He was just thinking about the fans, making sure that in this economy, they got maximum value for their baseball ticket dollar.

Freaking Halladay on the other hand, he’s a heartless bastard with the shortest average game time of all starting pitchers in his starts.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Jeff Niemann was heartless...some people had work to go to in the morning!

Halladay had a shorter game-time than Buehrle? That guy doesn’t even blink between pitches.

by ReasonableDoubt on Dec 7, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh I don't really know, I don't even know if that stat is recorded anywhere.

I was just trying to think of someone who was efficient and hoping you wouldn’t call me out on it.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

A guy who sucks against lefties

generally would be better off elsewhere rather than the AL East. Because of the dimensions of the fields in the AL East, there’s always going to be a predominance of good lefty hitters there.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

That something he can work on, though.

A good change would be priority 1. Though it didn’t seem to help Price or Kazmir.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Replace Wade Davis with Talbot and ???

S-Rod?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd think so

when you’re giving up players of that caliber, not to mention how do we afford Halladay? My point is more based around we could get a hell of a lot by giving up those two players and by adding another guy we could get 2-3 more years from an ace (a lesser ace), but that potential ace could give us three tries with him leading our staff instead of one.

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 7, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Thats the whole "long term" thinking..

All we’re going to be is a team with a great farm system and a “great future”.But when is that future going to come? Upton honestly hasn’t been himself for 2 seasons. And Davis is an unknown…We dont know what we’re going to get with him. I just think its about time for the FO to make some big big moves and not just planning for the future..B/C if all you do is “plan for the future” you’re not going to go anywhere in the present..When is the “future”

by Luva on Dec 7, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions  

You've got to avoid falling into that 'future is now' trap.

There’s a difference between taking a calculated risk while slightly expensing your future and literally throwing talent away. A straight up trade for one year of Halladay for Upton and Davis is throwing away talent, and it’s even worse since it’s going to a divisional foe. The Rays need to get more out of it with an extra player from the Jays. Halladay is extremely expensive and realistically, this team wouldn’t sign him to an extension. The draft picks that would come from his Type A status are also expensive, and refer to that ‘planning for the future’, that you’re currently hating on. They can’t afford to throw away talent.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes it's throwing away talent

But it’s throwing it away because you have a lot more and because when you throw it away Roy Halladay is popping out of the garbage can for a year.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Rays aren't going to sign the picks

then that would be just pisspoor management. I’m sorry.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, no

But if a smaller-market team isn’t consistently signing draft picks then that’s a problem. 2009 was bad, but it’s not a pattern(like it is for the Blue Jays).

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Dec 7, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

If the Rays don't make the playoffs then that deal looks extremely poor on our half.

As mentioned below, Upton/Halladay are almost equal in surplus value, even with the picks thrown in, and that’s being conservative on Upton.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

This is pretty much where I'm coming from

I like BJ as much as the next guy (and I’ve never been as high on David as Hellickson, although Davis is still a very good prospect), but if the front office thinks he’s never going to reach his potential because of motivational issues, then better off trading him now before he’s established a track record of mediocrity.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

This.

We could win 95 game with Halladay and still finish in 3rd place. Void of a guarantee playoff birth coming with Halladay, the risk is huge. Very cool to dream about a fantasy baseball type rotation for 2010, but that’s about the extent of it for me.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Davis is the one who makes this lopsided.

In any other division this is a playoff team. In this one, it’s rough. I think I’d say we’d be around a 94-96 true talent team, which SHOULD get us in, but you can’t guarantee Boston doesn’t turn around and grab Haren.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

But if the Rays don't make the playoffs

Then they can always re-flip Halladay at the deadline

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:22 PM EST up reply actions  

That's a bit more complicated.

1. You have to assume they will be in the race.
2. Say they’re back like this year. Do you go for it all in that second half, knowing your team is well-equipped to go on a hot streak, or sell the ace? Plus draft picks versus the half year of Halladay.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

They could very easily get Altanta Brave'd

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Technically, they did get one.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

This is true, but if anything, I think Cleveland were bigger failures in the 90s.

All those playoff appearances, and the 2 WS they make? They give the Braves their one championship, and they get strong-armed by a Marlins team that bought it. That’s getting fucked.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Look back at those teams

Manny, Thome, Lofton, Alomar, Vizquel, Alomar, Belle, more than I can remember off the top of my head, they were sick and the Jake was packed, them were the days for Sternfan1

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Please, it's hard enough thinking about Joe Table.

You don’t have to mention it aloud.

Sign lady must die.

by EminenceFront on Dec 7, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions  

How many times has Friedman or another FO guy

Said the Rays can’t operate in a vacuum? Sure it makes the team better in 2010, but they wouldn’t make such a big move based on that.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 6:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I agree

Davis and Beej is a little much for one year of Halladay. If we’re gonna trade both of them I’d rather get something more long term.

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

If you assume Halladay leaves after next season, but has a 7 WAR year ($4.5/WAR)

Then he + the two picks carries a surplus value of nearly 24 mil (value – salary).

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions  

If you assume B.J. is a 3 WAR player for each of the next three seasons.

With him being paid this year 40% of last year’s value, then 60%, then 80%, he holds a surplus value of 21.37 million.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis is really the tipping point.

I love three of the Jays relievers, but if Davis is just average he’s got them trumped in surplus value.

But … a 7 WAR addition to this team (and assume Jennings is a league average or slightly below player, you get a ~2 WAR difference from B.J. to D.J., so it’s not exactly 7 WAR) really raises the playoff probabilities. The $40M from a playoff appearance could really help out.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 7, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Also getting into the playoffs

could always lead to that Super Happy Time.

by SRQman on Dec 7, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Edwin*

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

That's because gingers don;t have souls

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

* don't

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

At least I don't like twilight.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

That would be a bannable offense.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Gravity's Rainbow?

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Either have I, but this is about the 3rd time you've raised it to defend your credibility

You should expand your horizons. Especially if you’re just dropping titles and not actually, you know, reading them.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Remember he said the Dark Knight sucked and hadn't seen it

Also that one show TGN1 likes and he has never seen it.

by SRQman on Dec 7, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I watched TDK and it was mediocre.

The Wire has a shitty premise and is shitty.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Wilma's Rainbow?

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

or the two generations a head of us

the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 7, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

So True.

I saw a ginger walking on the highway and I wanted to run him over.

by SRQman on Dec 7, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Make this green plz

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Threw my rec in

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Ah, why the hell not

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Everyone loves gyro's

I can almost forgive the centuries of boy-loving.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Dude, Baby lambs. :(

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Are you some sort of lamb pedophile?

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Umm no

I’m no record in this thread as admitting to loving the sweet taste of them, not of having sex with them. Those that have had sex know this distinction.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 7, 2009 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you fuck the meat before eating?

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Shit dude, no wonder gyros are slathered in mayo.

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions  

You got a problem with Mayo?

What, are you black now? Does everything have to have Tabasco sauce with it?

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably

It’s fun to speculate though

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Especially that fatass SRQ

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Everyone does that, though

2009 Rays Baseball: Welp.....we'll try again in 2010
2009 FSU Football: Thanks for the memories, Bobby Bowden

by JMB on Dec 7, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Me @6: Ok, time to head to the gym

Me Now: I fucking hate you Roy Halladay.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 7, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions  

HALLADAY'S HAREM IS HURTING THE RAYS

DRB fanpost when Halladay’s woods style affair comes to light

Officially now the head of the Lobstein bandwagon.

by P Brady on Dec 7, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions  

And when I first read it, I thought to myself I wouldnt think about it

because of the 5,000 to 1 odds it happens and now I can’t get the damn Doc off my mind.

If there is any truth to this, it gives me more hope that they will pay CC what he wants.

Give me a CC long term deal, please!

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions  

Pretty sure they've asked and that's the extent

Would be extremely shocked if anything else comes of it.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 7, 2009 8:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

FG adding xFIP is very exciting

Counting down the days to statcorner and FG merging it up, we can dream right?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 7, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions  

My signature is fucking gay and I listen to rumors too much

Remember Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez that got us hopeful and nothing happened?

I need to talk about something else, Jake McGee for 2010 bullpen!

Who do we want? Roy Halladay! When do we want him? NOW

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 8:31 PM EST reply actions  

Homo

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 7, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

It's not like you'll live to see it.

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 8, 2009 1:40 AM EST up reply actions  

This is not a good idea at all.

I don’t like the shortsighted thinking here. I hope its just speculation.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 7, 2009 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

Teams interested in Navi

Giants, Mariners, Rockies, Mets and Blue Jays

they all have some interesting pieces, I would want to find out what we have to add for Scott Downs

Who do we want? Roy Halladay! When do we want him? NOW

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 10:30 PM EST reply actions  

now dont be silly

why would you want that without Bumgarner?

Who do we want? Roy Halladay! When do we want him? NOW

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

They have an interest in the position of catcher

To assume that means Navi, is a reach. He is likely to be non-tendered. If they get gas money for him it would be a coup.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 7, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Rays 1 of 4 teams interested in Doumit

Unless we actually get Doc, Ryan Doumit would be nice target

Who do we want? Roy Halladay! When do we want him? NOW

by joeybw on Dec 7, 2009 11:00 PM EST reply actions  

Why would we trade 6 years of Davis

and BJ for 1 hear of potential, albeit likely, dominance?

Blah!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Dec 8, 2009 7:23 AM EST reply actions  

We're kicking the tires on Doumit.
MLBRumorCentral:
Jays, Rays, M’s and Giants in on Ryan Doumit?

No surprise, asking price will probably be to high.

And this gem:

keithlaw:
He can barely walk – he shouldn’t be that hard to catch. RT @mlbtraderumors Pirates Intensify Pursuit Of Bobby Crosby

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Dec 8, 2009 8:03 AM EST reply actions  

A point that nobody has mentioned yet is that James Shields was Roy Halladay for stretches last year, but was

routinely let down by the offense. Doc could not have pitched any better than James and still would have taken a bunch of frustrating L’s & ND’s.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 8:39 AM EST reply actions  

Huh what?

What games would that be? I see no CGs. I don’t see any CGSO. Last year Halladay had 9 and 4. Halladay was a top 5 pitcher last year (and the year before and the year before), and Shields wasn’t in the top 20. Come on, I mean Shields is a nice pitcher but he’s nowhere close to Halladay.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm putting a workbook together for him right now, but how many games did the Rays put up 0 or 1 run for James?

How many times did he get yanked with a lead, only to see the bullpen give it away. Granted in those instances, if he goes all 9 it’s a W, but if your team puts up a 0 you cannot win.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions  

OK so he had poor run support.

He also had a +4 FIP. Halladay’s FIP was 3.06. Halladay was more than 3 wins better.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 9:17 AM EST up reply actions  

The normalized offense workbook has him at 23.01 wins if he had our normalized offense behind him (Halladay)

Shields would have hypothetically had 19.41 wins if our offense was normalized. So yes, if we scored for both these guys the way they should have scored then Halladay is about 3.5 wins better. As we know, the offense didn’t perform at it’s normal pace for James and he would up with 11 “official” wins.

Looking at James starts, our offense gave opposition pitchers a 4.59 FIP, but only a .321 wOBA. I’ve got a correlation of .56 between FIP and Runs and a correlation of .78 between wOBA and Runs, for what that is worth. We scored at a mean of 4.64 , a median of 4, and a mode of 3 in his starts. James actual FIP (not game-to-game FIP) was 4.07, while Roy’s was 3.11. Yes, Roy is a marginally better pitcher, but the Rays scored 3 or fewer runs in 50% of Jamie’s starts.

My point was that James pitched mostly good for a long stretch (check out starts 6-20, good enough to win 80% of those, but was lucky to win half). Maybe Doc gives us just enough to win some of those closies, but if you don’t score you can’t win, it doesn’t matter who’s on the mound.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not arguing that he didn't recieve poor run support.

To call Halladay “marginally better” is the part I disagree with. Halladay is MUCH better than Shields. A run difference in FIP is massive. Is Shields “marginally better” than Joe Saunders?

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Halladay's B-Ref sponsor

Olaf Hong, to El Grande sponsor(s) this page.

At 40, El Grande was king. His advice to youth everywhere: remember Steve Dalkowski; Never get your finger stuck in a bottle; You can’t jack a deer from the Bookmobile. El Grande’s one question: Alex Rios, special player?

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 8:45 AM EST reply actions  

So Rafeal Soriano accepts arb.

His arb. figure will probably be b/w $6-7 mill. for one year. The Braves have to unload him. Anybody interested? I wonder what it would take.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 9:08 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah a bit.

2 things, though:
It’s a one-year deal.
He’ll almost definitely be type A next year.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, what's to keep him from accepting arb next year too?

Say he has the same year in 2010 as he did in 2009, then we’re looking at paying him 8-9 mil? No chance we can do that.

I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 8, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

The Braves didn't see this coming at all.

Last I heard they were 100% sure both of their guys were going.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

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