New York Yankees Acquire Curtis Granderson; Detroit Tigers Acquire Max Scherzer; Arizona Diamondbacks Acquire Brain Damage

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 3:11 PM EST

I don't want to bemoan the point too much, but this deal makes no sense for Arizona. Like, Josh Byrnes can tell everyone that King Zafuriack of the Hyereteian Empire forced him into it and even that would be more logical than the trade itself. Take a look at their part of this trade:

Going out: Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth

Coming in: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy

Schlereth is a reliever. He's a former first round pick who struggles with walks but has bat-missing ability. Kennedy is a former "top" prospect. He throws a fastball in the low-90s and profiles as aback-end starter. Maybe more if everything breaks correctly.

Jackson is coming off the best season of his career. He posted a 4.39 xFIP (his previous three years were 5.03, 4.95, and 5.20 ... yeah.) but he only has two years of team control remaining and the pretty standard statistics will drive his arbitration costs up. Now, he's going to be in the NL West, which means a lower level of competition than say, the AL East, that should help with his numbers a little, but he's not a front of the line starter, and he's not better than Scherzer. No way, no how.

Scherzer is younger and has something like five cost controlled seasons left. His career xFIP is 3.71 and most people agree he's got room to improve. Potentially Arizona knows something the rest of us don't about his health habits or personal life, but even then, with that asymmetric knowledge you have to get something better than these cats named after dead presidents. But maybe I'm being too hard, maybe getting older, worse, and more expensive is totally undervalued on today's trade market.

This deal makes no sense for them. Detroit's side, I can understand. They need money and youth. They got money and youth. Good for them. New York, I get it. Granderson is something like a 3.5-4.5 win player most likely. Depends on what you think of his defense. He has a skill set that should age well, and while I'm thrilled Austin Jackson is gone, this definitely makes the Yankees better for the 2010 season.

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Arizona loses this trade, NYY and Tigers both came out with what they wanted

Yankees get better with Granderson :( and the Tigers get younger and possibly better with Scherzer

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions

Again, grading the trade today is nice and all, but it is pure conjecture.

All trades must be given a few years to see how it fleshes out. It’s nice to have something to talk about, but it’s meaningless until it plays out.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

We can grade the trade based on what we know right now.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

Sure, but that should be stated somewhere

I.E. Right now, this looks…

If Granderson runs into a wall and separates his shoulder and is never the player he was again, the Yanks gave up something to get virtually nothing. If Scherzer ruptures an ulna nerve, all of a sudden it looks pretty decent for Detroit whether Kennedy does anything or not. BTW I loved your line about cats named after dead presidents.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

FTFM

If Scherzer ruptures an ulna nerve, all of a sudden it looks pretty decent for ~~Detroit~~ Arizona whether Kennedy does anything or not. BTW I loved your line about cats named after dead presidents.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

What do FTFM and FTFY mean?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Dec 8, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Fixed That For Me/You

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

That's results-based analysis my brotha.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know how many tards I had to tell that it is probably a good move to trade an excess OF for a young, cost-controlled arm

and a decent enough SS. Evaluate the process all you want, but you can’t make a judgment one way or another.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

This is a large stone in what was a placid pond

What are, if any, the ramifications as the ripples spread over 27 other cities?
- Boston just got a fire lit under their ass to get Holliday and probably Lackey
- Who else will feel the need to make a knee-jerk signing to keep pace?
- What happens with Bay, Damon, Matsui?
- How does this affect the Halladay rumors?
- Will other teams go into copycat mode and start looking to trade prospects for proven talent?
- If so, whom?

These are just a few questions I have.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:24 PM EST reply actions

also the Mets might think they have to make a big move to stay in the headlines

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Omar just needs to throw his checkbook into a dumpster right now and light that bitch on fire

For the good of all Mets fans. Hilarious

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Granderson improves the team assuming Jeter, Cano, Posada, Rivera continue to fend off age/crappyness.

Mira Sorvino...Paul Walker...T-Pain...Fall 2010...HEADSTONE MAFIA, A LOVE STORY OF REVENGE. "5/5 stars!!!" - DRB User "Andy Hellicksonstine"

by PlayOnWords on Dec 8, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

that is how the Yankees are still beatable

even Pettitte he might pitch his age

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

HGH is a hell of a drug.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 8, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

OT

It shouldn’t have been hard to see this coming:
The 19-year-old son of home run king Barry Bonds was arrested Saturday in Menlo Park for allegedly spitting in his mother’s face and throwing a metal doorknob at her during an argument, police said.

Nikolai Bonds was booked into San Mateo County jail on suspicion of assault with a deadly weapon and other crimes after he was arrested at his mother’s home in the 1000 block of Valparaiso Avenue, Menlo Park police spokeswoman Nicole Acker said.

~~-snip~~-

In addition to allegedly assaulting his mother during the argument, Bonds smashed picture frames and vases, destroying $400 worth of property, Acker said. He also blocked the door so his mother couldn’t leave, she added.

At one point, he threw a metal doorknob at her “so hard that it embedded itself into the wall, but it missed her,” Acker said. Sun Bonds was uninjured.

Acker said police are still investigating what the argument was about.

Police arrested Bonds on suspicion of assault with a deadly weapon, assault and battery, vandalism, false imprisonment and obstructing and resisting an officer, Acker said.

Source

I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 8, 2009 3:37 PM EST reply actions

wow i didnt realize he was only a year younger than me

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Kid has got a hell of an arm

It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee

by RaysnNoles on Dec 8, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

so says Sid Bream

by ValricoBrian on Dec 8, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

there is a rumor out there that the Nats traded the #1 pick in the rule 5 for Bruney

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions

I miss George Steinbrenner. He's what made the Yankee teams competitive. :(

I can't wait until we trade him for a reliever.

by kericr on Dec 8, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

also were in on Escobar

Kelvimh
ttp://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/yankees-mets-inquire-on-kelvim-escobar.html

Vikings 4 the superbowl

by RaysOfHope on Dec 8, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Always a shame to see the Yankees get better

Dave Cameron didn’t seem too enthused about Austin Jackson, calling what they gave up “a variety pack of role players”. Is he projected to be a starter?

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 8, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions

Yes, but his star had dimmed a bit

He was a top 20 prospect in baseball at the end of 2008. Now, more like 50-75 range.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Dec 8, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

by ChiBurbRaysFan on Dec 8, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

Disagree here

Can’t see that his star dimmed so. He still hasn’t delivered more hoped for power, and K rate is still an issue. But he had a solid season in AAA at age 22 – slash line of .300/.354/.405. But he wasn’t a past top 20 prospect – A Jax was #41 in BA prior to 2008, #36 for 2009. BP had him at #46 for 2009. Actually mlb.com had him as #23 in their latest ranking – big boys lists for 2010 aren’t out yet.

That said, I’m not upset by the deal, though Granderson’s problems vs lefties is troubling. Speculation that Melky would go next, but they may keep him to play against lefties, leaving Gardner out in the cold or back in AAA.

And there might be more to Kennedy than meets the eye. He’s had some injury struggles and misfortune (aneurism wiped out this year), but his MILB performances were outstanding – had he been in your org you’d likely have a significantly different take on him. Performance numbers are far from everything, but flash back to 2008 and compare his performance to Wade Davis’.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Dec 8, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

Granderson is something like a 3.5-4.5 win player most likely.

At least. Over the last three years he’s averaged 4.93 wins. Even if you do a 5/4/3 with his win values over the last 3 seasons you get him as 4.53 wins. This may be splitting hairs, but I think you undervalued him a bit. I’d be more suprised if he put up a 2.5 win season than a 7 win season.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 5:52 PM EST reply actions

we need to throw some lefties at him this year

--Gerald Wallace is the best player the Bobcats will have..... EVER
--Someone should slap Larry Brown and bring him back to reality..

by raysfan81 on Dec 8, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions

My first reaction on hearing of this trade

was that Detroit did great, NY did very well and Arizona got snookered. My second reaction was that NY did great and Detroit did very well while Arizona screwed up.

I still think it is a terrific deal for NY. Even if you are lukewarm about Granderson, he is almost certainly an upgrade in their outfield for a very modest contract-and that does mean something even to the Yankees-and I don’t think they gave up anything they will regret. Coke has his uses but is replaceable. Kennedy’s ceiling is likely as a decent #4 or 5, not insignificant I know, but also not more likely to reach that level than Joba or Hughes who are ahead of him right now.

And I am dubious about Jackson. Apparently a terrific athlete with a strong work ethic, he does not seem to have made much progress as he has moved up. For the past 3 years, his K rate has gone up every year. Except for a blip in 2008, his BB rate has gotten worse each step. And his power numbers have gotten worse at each level. I would say the odds are pretty good that Granderson is the better player for the next 4 years, with a good chance that he is well above average while about equal odds that Jackson is no more than adequate.

But as for Detroit and Arizona, the only hesitation in my mind is that the D-Backs may value durability more than ceiling right now, especially with Webb returning from an injury. There has been a lot of talk since he was drafted that Scherzer’s violent mechanics forbode serious injury, while Jackson has been injury free since his call-up as a regular major leaguer. I don’t know that the move to the NL is that important, especially as Edwin is going to a hitter’s park and will probably start some games in Coors as well, but given what we know now, we can be more confident that he will start his full quota of games and probably be at least average as a #3 starter while Scherzer is more likely to break down. So it is a gamble that each takes with an eye to a different priority.

And I am not so sure we can be too harsh on Arizona for giving up Schlereth. Right now he is simply an intriguing prospect who can’t find the plate. I don’t think Arizona should be hanging onto relievers if they think the starter(s) they are receiving are worthwhile. So in the end, they gave up a high upside starter about whom there are serious health concerns and an unproven reliever with control issues for a durable inning eater starter and another starter with solid AAA numbers and a modest ceiling but also health concerns.

On balance, I still think Arizona is likely to be the big loser, but I am not so certain of it as I was initially. And I think Detroit did very well, but also think they are taking more than the ordinary risks we associate with any trade. Still, especially when you factor in the costs and the years of control, Arizona seems to out on a longer and thinner limb.

by bobr on Dec 8, 2009 9:09 PM EST reply actions

I don't really mind giving up Schlereth.

And while the durability point is a good one, at the same time, is Arizona in position to sacrifice upside for longevity when that longevity is only under contact for two additional seasons and not essentially free?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

No, it isn't.

I think it is a bad trade for Arizona. I am just trying to find some logic to it, and that was the best I could do. I suppose my view is that occasionally there is a deal made that is incomprehensible, like some recent Royals’ deals. Even if you stretch your imagination to the limit, you can’t find a justification or a reasoning process that you can respect.

There are other deals that you conclude are bad, but with a little “good will” you can at least make some sense out of the thinking that went into it even if you still disagree. Too often we do not distinguish between those two different types of deals and so our “WTF were they thinking” loses its impact when applied willy-nilly. In this case, my first reaction was “WTF?” but then I thought I could at least see some rational thinking in it, however weak it might seem. So I will save my WTF for something more outrageous.

by bobr on Dec 8, 2009 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

With that in mind ... any thoughts on the Teahen extension?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 8, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

Bob I hope your travels find you well, we miss you.

Great posts.

by rglass44 on Dec 8, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions

Same.

I stop what I’m doing to read his thoughts. I skim with the rest of us jokers.

I'm a Brett Favre honk so FUCK YOU!

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 9, 2009 8:20 AM EST up reply actions

HEY, FUCK YOU, MAN.

I GIVE YOU ALL GOLD AND YOU GIVE ME NOTHING.

But yes, praise be to Bob.

by Suttree on Dec 9, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

I appreciate the kind words,

but trust me, there is no false modesty when I say that I learn more from this site than I contribute.

In any case, as to the Teahen extension, I really have not thought much about it but wonder why the White Sox would feel it necessary to buy out his arbitration years and one year of free agency. He does not strike me as the sort of player a team would want to commit to for 3 years if they already have the option to keep control for two anyway. Teahen strikes me as a complementary piece, not a core player, so why lock yourself into him for longer than you have to?

by bobr on Dec 9, 2009 11:06 AM EST reply actions

PLEASE USE THE REPLY BUTTON, DRAYS BAY USER "bobr"!

by Suttree on Dec 9, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

From Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/12/ok_in_arizona.php#comments

I think this is an example of how priorities influence different team’s decisions so that in some cases it is less a matter of right or wrong and more a matter of which legitimate concerns have the most force in the thinking.

Of course, Byrnes may still be overrating Jackson and Kennedy.

by bobr on Dec 9, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions

I share your mindset that they are most likely looking for what they think is a sure #2 (in the NLW) vs a potential #1 with question marks

One can question the merits of whether a sure 2 WAR pitcher for 2 years outweighs the contributions of a guy that could be anywhere from 0-5 WAR over the next 4 years, but clearly they were stung a little bit by Webb’s injury last year, and the utter collapse of their team following that. The outrage poured on Byrnes seems to be looking at solely the best-case scenario of Scherzer.

At worst, Kennedy would appear to be a viable high-leverage bullpen option, with the potential to be a solid 3-4 for the next 6 years. As always, his true value is somewhere in between.

I'm a writer.

by Andy Hellicksonstine on Dec 9, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

But, wasn't Webb one of those uber-reliable arms?

Only he also was very, very good. Jackson isn’t as good and while so far he has shown to be reliable, that hasn’t stopped injuries from occurring in the past.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 9, 2009 1:56 PM EST up reply actions