PECOTA is Out

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 1, 2009 2:34 PM EST

Just from a scan it seems like WARP now matches up pretty close to FanGraphs Win Values. The change is on BP's part, moving the baseline for replacement player from "Corpse" to "Ray Olmedo". That's good. Some of the player comparisons:

Aybar

TBA

Luis Rodriguez, Scott Spiezio, Jose Vidro, Jeff Cirillo

Beckham

TBA

Mark Lewis, Jeff Blauser, Eddie Williams, Chris Nelson

Crawford

TBA

Deion Sanders, Darin Erstad, Terry Puhl, Johnny Damon

Longoria

TBA

Ron Hansen, Eric Chavez, Jeff Burroughs, Ryan Zimmerman

Upton

TBA

Steve Kemp, J.D. Drew, Shannon Stewart, Rickie Weeks

Balfour

TBA

Joe Nathan, Brendan Donnelly, Chad Fox, Francisco Cordero

Garza

TBA

Matt Keough, Brian Holman, Jay Tibbs, Ron Kline

Price

TBA

Mike Pelfrey, Paul Wilson, Justin Verlander, Mark Mulder

Niemann

TBA

Chris Carpenter, Roger Salkeld, Craig Mcmurtry, Tommy Greene

Kazmir

TBA

Juan Pizarro, Johan Santana, Don Gullett, Frank Tanana

Shields

TBA

Danny Haren, Curt Schilling, David Bush, Chris Bosio

Sonnanstine

TBA

Doug Drabek, Jose Lima, Ray Burris, Dick Drago

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Balfour as Nathan

makes me want to stop being drunk right now and become more religous to pray that this is the case. Nathan pops a mitt and is never hurt, he makes me wish I was him

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 1, 2009 3:01 PM EST reply actions

Icky

Based solely on comparisons, Pecota seems high on Shields, Sonnanstine and Balfour, not so much on anyone else.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 1, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Kazmir compared to Santana, wow

As for Price, I hope they mean the Cy Young type years from Verlander and Mulder

Also, CC is better than any of those guys

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 1, 2009 3:41 PM EST reply actions

thats not how it works

Its comparing them to verlander and Mulder and the other guys at the same ages, but it also compares players on up to 100 datapoints, including size, height, handedness, as well as stats and skills, etc.

Verlander spent his first year in the minors out of college at age 22 just like price, (also his only year),

What pecota does it grabs a list of comparable players at the same point in their careers, and then looks at how those players did the next year, and weights it based on the most comparable player getting the highest weighting, etc.

Pelfrey is another guy who was drafted out of college and started his first pro season at age 22 and was actually quite dominant, 96 ip 109ks 33bbs 2.44 era 1.19whip while jumping from A+, to AA, to AAA by the end of the season and seeing the majors in sept.

Price 109.2 ip 109 ks 32 bbs 2.30 era 1.13 whip.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Feb 2, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions