2009 Projected Standings

by BurGi on Feb 13, 2009 10:28 AM EST Comment 16 comments

The last 3 days I've worked on a formula to project the standings of 2009 and now I have my results!

- What have I done?

1. I've given the teams values (the higher the better) for how strong I see them in 4 areas (Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense, Defense) ... using mostly stats from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and combining it with my own intuition/opinion on player performances in 2009!

2. I've weighed these values [1,25*(2/3 * SP + 1/3 * RP) + 1,1 * OFF + 0,45 * DEF + 0,2] and got "team values" or "team strength"!

3. I've looked up the schedules and noted how often every team plays against every team!

4. Then I calculated my projected wins in the following way (example: Rays against AL East):

- "average_al_east_strength" = [Games against Yankees * "yankees_strength" + games against Boston * "red_sox_strength" + ...] / Games against AL East teams overall

- "rays_projected_wins_division" = (Games against AL East teams)/2 + (Games against AL East teams)/2 * ["rays_strength" / "average_al_east_strength" - 1]

5. I summed up the projected wins in the division, in IL - play and in games against the other divisions in the league and had my results:

- Agenda:

W ... projected wins

% ... projected winning percentage

W_original ... projected wins just according to "team strength" (omitting the opponents according to schedule)

W_Div ... projected wins in division

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in division

W_Lea ... projected wins against the other 2 divisions in the same league

%_Lea ... projected winning percentage against the other 2 divisions in the same league

W_IL ... projected wins in interleague play

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in interleague play

SP ... value for starting pitching (strength of the SP)

RP ... value for relief pitching (strength of the BP)

OFF ... value for offense (offensive strength)

DEF ... value for defense (defensive strength)

OVERALL ... Overall "team strength" index

OPP ... Average opponent team strength

- Projected Standings:

AL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Boston Red Sox	98	0,603	100	41,2	0,573	45,8	0,636	10,9	0,605	0,70	0,70	0,65	0,50	2,015	1,676
New York Yankees	97	0,600	99	40,9	0,568	45,7	0,635	10,7	0,596	0,75	0,60	0,70	0,35	2,003	1,676
Tampa Bay Rays	97	0,598	99	40,5	0,563	45,8	0,636	10,8	0,601	0,70	0,55	0,60	0,70	1,988	1,668
Toronto Blue Jays	76	0,472	80	31,1	0,432	36,7	0,510	8,8	0,486	0,50	0,65	0,45	0,50	1,608	1,717
Baltimore Orioles	68	0,420	71	27,2	0,378	32,9	0,458	8,1	0,447	0,30	0,30	0,60	0,45	1,438	1,728
AVERAGE	87	0,539	90	36,0	0,500	41,4	0,575	9,8	0,547	0,59	0,56	0,60	0,50	1,810	1,693
AL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Cleveland Indians	87	0,537	88	39,0	0,541	37,8	0,524	10,4	0,579	0,55	0,60	0,60	0,45	1,771	1,615
Minnesota Twins	81	0,501	81	36,4	0,505	35,2	0,488	9,8	0,542	0,60	0,45	0,53	0,35	1,628	1,618
Chicago White Sox	79	0,490	80	36,3	0,504	34,3	0,476	9,0	0,499	0,50	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,607	1,642
Detroit Tigers	77	0,475	76	34,8	0,484	33,2	0,461	9,1	0,506	0,45	0,40	0,60	0,30	1,537	1,631
Kansas City Royals	72	0,446	71	33,3	0,463	30,4	0,423	8,7	0,482	0,55	0,40	0,40	0,38	1,436	1,652
AVERAGE	79	0,490	79	36,0	0,500	34,2	0,474	9,4	0,522	0,53	0,49	0,54	0,36	1,596	1,632
AL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Angels	91	0,564	89	34,9	0,613	46,3	0,532	10,4	0,575	0,65	0,70	0,55	0,35	1,796	1,601
Oakland Athletics	77	0,476	77	28,7	0,503	39,3	0,452	9,3	0,516	0,50	0,60	0,40	0,50	1,554	1,640
Texas Rangers	73	0,452	73	26,9	0,373	37,6	0,433	8,9	0,496	0,30	0,30	0,70	0,30	1,480	1,642
Seattle Mariners	67	0,414	68	24,1	0,335	34,9	0,402	8,2	0,458	0,55	0,30	0,30	0,55	1,361	1,647
AVERAGE	77	0,477	77	28,5	0,500	39,5	0,455	9,2	0,511	0,50	0,48	0,49	0,44	1,548	1,632
NL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Philadelphia Phillies	93	0,575	93	40,6	0,565	43,5	0,604	9,3	0,515	0,58	0,60	0,57	0,72	1,884	1,633
New York Mets	90	0,554	90	39,0	0,541	43,9	0,585	7,0	0,468	0,60	0,65	0,57	0,50	1,823	1,644
Florida Marlins	85	0,527	87	37,1	0,515	40,2	0,558	8,3	0,463	0,60	0,35	0,60	0,55	1,753	1,658
Atlanta Braves	85	0,523	86	36,5	0,507	41,4	0,552	6,9	0,463	0,70	0,50	0,50	0,42	1,731	1,652
Washington Nationals	66	0,406	68	27,4	0,381	31,6	0,440	6,8	0,380	0,30	0,40	0,50	0,45	1,369	1,686
AVERAGE	84	0,517	85	36,0	0,500	40,1	0,548	7,7	0,457	0,56	0,50	0,55	0,53	1,712	1,655
NL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Chicago Cubs	98	0,603	94	50,6	0,632	38,3	0,579	8,4	0,562	0,65	0,55	0,65	0,45	1,888	1,562
Cincinnati Reds	81	0,500	79	41,5	0,518	32,6	0,486	7,1	0,473	0,60	0,55	0,45	0,38	1,595	1,590
St. Louis Cardinals	80	0,491	78	40,3	0,504	32,1	0,479	7,3	0,488	0,50	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,570	1,591
Milwaukee Brewers	77	0,474	76	38,3	0,485	31,8	0,468	6,8	0,454	0,45	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,528	1,604
Houston Astros	75	0,463	74	36,8	0,472	31,2	0,452	7,2	0,479	0,40	0,55	0,45	0,52	1,492	1,603
Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0,389	63	30,3	0,393	27,1	0,388	5,8	0,386	0,35	0,30	0,45	0,35	1,269	1,623
AVERAGE	79	0,487	77	39,5	0,500	32,3	0,475	7,1	0,474	0,49	0,44	0,52	0,43	1,557	1,596
NL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Dodgers	90	0,558	88	41,9	0,582	39,0	0,542	9,7	0,538	0,70	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,773	1,582
Arizona Diamondbacks	87	0,536	84	39,7	0,551	39,3	0,524	8,1	0,541	0,70	0,45	0,50	0,40	1,701	1,578
Colorado Rockies	83	0,511	81	37,8	0,525	38,0	0,507	7,2	0,482	0,60	0,55	0,50	0,35	1,637	1,593
San Francisco Giants	72	0,444	72	32,3	0,448	33,1	0,441	6,8	0,452	0,65	0,40	0,30	0,45	1,441	1,614
San Diego Padres	65	0,404	65	29,0	0,402	30,2	0,403	6,4	0,424	0,40	0,45	0,40	0,35	1,318	1,625
AVERAGE	79	0,491	78	36,0	0,500	35,9	0,483	7,7	0,489	0,61	0,49	0,45	0,37	1,574	1,599
AMERICAN LEAGUE	82	0,503	82						0,528	0,54	0,51	0,55	0,43	1,659
NATIONAL LEAGUE	81	0,497	80						0,473	0,55	0,48	0,51	0,44	1,611
MLB OVERALL	81	0,500	81							0,55	0,49	0,52	0,44	1,633	1,633

- Assumptions for my ratings/values:

Manny Ramirez is a Dodger in 2009

- Some conclusions:

The three best teams in all of baseball play in the AL East.

AL Playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, LA Angels, NY Yankees (WC)

NL Playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, NY Mets (WC)

AL East and NL East are by far the best divisions in each league

The Rays have a slightly easier schedule in comparison to the Yankees and Red Sox (Not like last year!)

So ... that was a lot! What do you think? Any suggestions, ideas, complaints, ...?

5 recs | Comment 16 comments |

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Comments

Good work..

by tbmd on Feb 13, 2009 10:50 AM EST reply actions

Complaint

Rays don’t make the playoffs!

by rays_world_champs on Feb 13, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions

Irrelevant

If we had 97 wins each and were both going for the Wild Card, there would be a playoff.

Lay off the stadium, Iwamura

by Orlando Rays on Feb 13, 2009 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

that would be the saddest day ever

by davidsmarch on Feb 13, 2009 1:27 PM EST reply actions

Blue Jays have gone back this winter...

but still won’t take my Orioles out of 5th until i’m shown otherwise. Predictions look good, well done!

by wiggitywhales on Feb 13, 2009 1:28 PM EST reply actions

you forgot to add one win to TB for BOSSMAN's healed shoulder

and subtract 2 from NYY for the announcement of Arod and Madonna’s pregnancy.

by daveh33 on Feb 13, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions

A-RoId miss a month for some reason would be enough I guess!

by BurGi on Feb 13, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

All 3 teams in the AL East are that good

but, they will beat each other up a ton over the course of the season and there is no way they could all win more than 95

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Feb 15, 2009 8:43 PM EST reply actions

You're likely right

95 wins for all 3 teams is crazy; but it is possible if the other two division winners are struggling to reach 90 wins. I’d guess that a scenario like last year is more likely; 2 teams clearing 95 and the third team around 90 wins. Regardless of what happens, the AL East is completely ridiculous.

by kericr on Feb 15, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions

I have taken that into account!

They would have 100, 99 and 99 wins regarding their “team strength”, but as they have more difficult schedules they land on predicted 98,97 and 97 wins respectively!

I already have changed a constant a bit (I’ve changed the +0,2 in the first formula to +0,25) and now they have 97, 96 and 96 projected wins!

If anybody has his/her own values (SP, RP, OFF, DEF) he/she can send it to me and I’ll insert it in the formula and make the projections based on your subjective values instead of mine! (Mail: WolfgangBurgholzer@hotmail.com)

By the way: Which values do you think that I rated complitelly wrong? Which team has way too much / not enough wins?

by BurGi on Feb 16, 2009 10:09 AM EST reply actions

I would maybe get some peer reviewed values

I think they could use some tweaking across the board for the most part. They seem like good ballparks but this is the integral part of your formula. Perhaps something similar to what Tango does with his fan-fielding data. With only 4 categories you could probably get most blogs to rate out the teams and over a large enough sample I think you would get pretty close to reality. With spring training just starting there could be enough time to finish before 4/5/09.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

A few added points..

Regarding the East: With an imbalanced schedule, one of the now “BIG – 3” of the East should and will falter in 2009 as they continue to beat on one another. While the Yankees are the slowest and poorest fielders of the 3, they have done the most to improve their ballclub and improve their pitching staff. The Yanks bullpen of Chamberlain setting up Rivera is the best in the business. Tampa Bay has also improved it’s offense and with the addition of Price and key relievers has improved pitching. TB will be a better all around team in 2009 with their additions and added maturity to it’s younger players. Which leads to the discussion of the Red Sox. How can Boston be rated that highas far as wins are concerned? For opinions sake only the Red Sox are “hoping” in the signings of Penny and Smoltz. Boston will also partake this season without arguably the best clutch Right handed hitting bat in all of baseball in Manny Ramirez. Overall NYY, and TB have improved while Boston has regressed.

The West: To not include the Angels as possibly the best team in baseball would be, and is hard to do. I cannot see another West Division team competing with the Angels in 2009. Anahiem is strong in all areas, and are a tremendously disciplined and coached team.

The Central: Cleveland has lost CC Sabathia, Paul Byrd. Jake Westbrook is sidelined until at least the A.S. break with TJ surgery a season ago. Replacing 3/5’s of a rotation with minor leaguers? Again, only for opinion sakes, the Tribe has NO shot at winning the Central. I fully expect the underachieving Tigers with added defense and speed to run the gauntlet in the A.L. Central.

by ConnorManning on Feb 18, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions

Reply

I just want to give you my opinion on the points you mentioned!

AL East:
I already have taken the VERY DIFFICULT schedule of all AL East teams in consideration as you can see when you compare the W_original predictions with the W predictions.

Y’s:
Yes, they got better and they are great (quality and depht wise) in the rotation (where Joba will be playing) and good in the BP (where Joba won’t play unless he can’t handle a starting role)! They are the best offensive team (with maybe the Rangers), but they still are mediocre defense – wise (maybe I should give them 0,37 or 0,38 there which would nearly equal the Y’s and Red Sox “team_strength” index)

Red Sox:
The pitching staff improved in my opinion very much as they have lots of quality depth in the rotation (take into account that Masterson can start in ’09 as the BP is very much improved compared to ’08) … in fact “only” 1 or 2 of their 4 upside players (Buchholz, Smoltz, Penny, Bowden) have to pan out in ’09 in order to form a very good rotation! The BP is (with the Angels pen) the best in the MLB in my opinion with the quality addition of Ramirez and Saito! The lineup remains very good despite losing Manny and has lots of good depth with the bench and AAA players!

Rays:
They improved as well: The offense is now above average! The SP – corps is very good! The BP is above average despite I think that it will regress a bit compared to last year (despite the very good acquisitions) and the defense is the best in the league!

AL West:
I like the Angels, but if they want to be as good as the 3 AL East teams a lots of things have to fall in place (the young infielders have to show their potential at the MLB level; The old outfielder are not allowed to regress; Napoli has to prove his great ‘08) despite their great pitching corps! In addition to that the AL West will be a bit better in ’09 than in ’08 (especially thanks to the improvement of the A’s), but still … the Angels are the clear frontrunner!

AL Central:
A lot of things have to fall in place if the Tigers want to win the AL Central (especially regarding the pitching) … and despite their addition of Everett and Laird their defense still is mediocre!
The Indians on the other side now have a great BP and a starting rotation with (yes) some question marks behing Lee but also with lots of upside and depth! And I think that at least 2 of the minor leaguers (as u say) and Pavano will be good in ’09. Their offense was good in ’08 and will improve with DeRosa (and Martinez and maybe Hafner) in ’09 (despite maybe some regressions from players like Schoppach and Choo)! So … I see them as the frontrunner in the moment with the Twins as their first persecutor!

by BurGi on Feb 19, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions

One thing.

I think the Rays and Red Sox have a good chace of both outperforming the Yankee’s offensively.

by twenty5psi on Feb 19, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

The Red Sox

They were the one team that really had no holes going into the offseason. They made a push for Texiera as he was the only player (besides Manny) who could provide a substantial upgrade over there current players. Only one of there 4 upside acquisitions (Baldelli, Smoltz, Penny, Saito) needs to pan out for them to improve on paper from last year. They also have a pretty solid bunch of high level prospects (Anderson, Bowden, Buckholtz) who could provide depth to an already deep team.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 20, 2009 3:44 AM EST up reply actions