Comparing James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnastine

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 18, 2009 7:00 AM EST

One of my favorite baseball analysts, Rich Lederer, has been giving us a lot of material lately on how to categorize pitchers. He started out with the strikeout and ground ball rates, and has now added walks into the equation. The reason we measure pitchers this way is simple.

As Lederer states:

The best pitchers miss bats (K), keep batted balls in the park (GB), and command and control the strike zone (BB).

He took the 135 pitchers, who qualified by his standards (100 or more innings with 33% of appearances being starts), and got the average K per Batter Faced, average BB per Batter Faced and average ground ball percentage. From here he classified the 135 pitchers into eight categories.

K+ BB+ GB+ > K+ BB+ GB- > K+ BB- GB+ > K+ BB- GB- > K- BB+ GB+ > K- BB+ GB- > K- BB- GB+ > K- BB- GB-

The first category features names like CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, Cliff lee and Brandon Webb. Your typical every day ace types. The next group also features many ace types like Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels and Ervin Santana, but features some surprises like Wandy Rodriguez and Ted Lilly. The third group still features an ace in Tim Lincecum and many other good names like A.J. Burnett, Felix Hernandez, Clayon Kershaw, but also has Jorge De La Rosa, Brett Myers and Doug Davis. As you go down the lists you'll see the quality of the pitcher drop. Once you hit the K- BB- GB- or last group, you find names like: Brandon Backe, Barry Zito, Adam Eaton and of course Edwin Jackson.

My main interest was to see where the Rays pitchers fell. Excluding Jackson, the Rays pitchers that qualified were James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine.

James Shields, again, shows up as the true ace of the staff. With above average marks in each category, Shields is in group one with the Sabathias and Halladays. At age 27, Shields should be breaking into his physcial prime meaning he should only get better and better. I'd like to mention Shields will make $1.5 million in 2009 and $2.5 million in 2010. Andrew Friedman, you are a bad, bad man for this one.

There is a bit of a drop off from Sheilds to the next Rays pitcher. Kazmir is next, but falls in the K+ BB- GB- group. Kazmir always has a high walk rate, but because of the decrease in slider usage, his GB% plummeted down to 30.79% in 2008. This was 13% lower than 2007 and roughly 10% lower than his career. Hopefully, when he gets that slider feel back, his GB% will move closer to the average rate.

Our final two Rays, Sonnanstine and Garza, appear in the sixth table or K- BB+ GB-. For Sonnanstine this is no surprise. He was never confused for a big strike out guy, but doesn’t walk many and is just under league average in GB%. For all the hype surrounding Garza, this may seem as a disappointing landing spot, but if you look at the raw numbers it's not. Garza’s K/BF was 0.32 below the average and his GB% is within two percent of being above average. Garza faced 772 batters in 2008. If he would’ve had three, yes three, more strike outs he would’ve been in the K+ BB+ GB- category with Hamels and Beckett. If you go a step further and have just 15 more ground balls out of the 772 batters faced, then Garza would be in the +,+,+ category with Shields.

Here are the Rays pitchers in chart form compared to each other and league average:

Kbf_medium

Bbbf_medium

Gb_medium

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I did the same story two week ago

but used K/9 over K/BF and WHIP over BB/F

(click graphic to enlarge)

link to article

Data from 2004-2008

Group Total Skill Lowest ERA Highest ERA Mean ERA
A 12 GB >=50; K/9 >=7.0; WHIP <=1.25 1.87 4.08 3.23
B 12 GB>=50; K/9>=7.0 3.41 5.55 4.07
C 17 GB>=50; WHIP <=1.25 2.39 5.00 3.51
D 62 WHIP <=1.25; K/9 >=7.0 2.27 4.28 3.35
E 38 Only WHIP <=1.25 2.54 4.42 3.67
F 46 Only GB>=50% 3.52 6.02 4.30
G 65 Only K/9>=7.0 2.90 5.80 4.20
H 160 No skills 3.03 6.99 4.60

In 2008, here are the members of each group form the table above:

Group A: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb

Group B: Ubaldo Jimenez, Manny Parra, Andy Pettitte

Group C: Hiroki Kuroda, Derek Lowe

Group D: Ted Lilly, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Scott Baker, John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Ryan Dempster, John Danks, Ben Sheets, Ricky Nolasco, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, Josh Beckett

Group E: Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Wakefield, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Matt Garza, James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jesse Litsch, Mike Mussina, Armando Galarraga, Dave Bush

Group F: John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, Jair Jurrjens, Paul Maholm, Aaron Cook, Zach Duke, Jason Marquis, Carlos Zambrano

Group G: Ian Snell, Oliver Perez, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Gil Meche, A.J. Burnett, Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Zack Greinke, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Edinson Volquez, Javier Vazquez, Brett Myers, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo

Group H: Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Dana Eveland, Tim Redding, Brian Bannister, Brandon Backe, Nate Robertson, Jamie Moyer, Jon Garland, Daniel Cabrera, Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Suppan, Scott Olsen, Braden Looper, Andy Sonnanstine, Jon Lester, Barry Zito, Gavin Floyd, Greg Smith, Nick Blackburn, Mark Buehrle

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Feb 18, 2009 7:22 AM EST reply actions

So what you're saying is Tommys a theif

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 18, 2009 9:30 AM EST up reply actions

No

Lederer’s a thief.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 18, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Yea, Tommy stole my beer at a game too

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Feb 18, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

That's interesting because he never drinks

Maybe he gave it to me instead.

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 18, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

I was about to link to this article.

I am glad he added BB/BF, and I think your point about how close Garza and Sonnanstine were to league averages in a couple of cases is important.

I think this quotation from Rich Lederer’s article relates to a discussion in another thread about the link between K rates and pitcher success:
________________________________________________________________________
“As a rule of thumb, pitchers with plus strikeout rates will have a better-than-average ERA and RA. Conversely, pitchers with minus strikeout rates will have a worse-than-average ERA and RA. Both of these general principles apply irrespective of the other variables with one exception: pitchers with minus K rates combined with plus BB and GB rates will typically sport average ERA and RA.”

by bobr on Feb 18, 2009 7:35 AM EST reply actions