David Price the Reliever Versus David Price the Starter

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 18, 2009 11:42 AM EST

We've done this a few times before, but may as well do it again.

Let's say Price is a league average starter and a run better than your league average reliever, and that he theoretically is placed in situations that mirror Grant Balfour's last season. Simply, we'll use Balfour's leverage index and assume Price will be called upon in almost exactly the same scenarios.

That gives us:

~150 innings (assuming he makes ~30 starts, that's five innings per outing) with a 4.48 run average. That's about 17 leveraged runs saved.

~75 innings (half of his starting work) with a ~1.3 leverage and a 3.13 run average. That's 16.4 leveraged runs saved.

So an average starter gives you more value in 150 innings than an above average set-up man does in 75 innings. Of course that's assuming Price is league average as a starter, only goes 5 innings per start, ect., but he's going to have to be extremely good out of the bullpen to match a league average starter's value.

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No no and no

Price as the SP, Niemann as the late inning RP. I know Maddon and co wouldn’t make such a stupid mistake so I am not worried.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 18, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for a very good explanation

by Raymondo on Feb 18, 2009 12:31 PM EST reply actions

Once again

It really depends on who he’s pushing out of the rotation and who he’s pushing out of the bullpen. If the answer to that question is Niemann in both cases, and he turns out to be one of those guys who’s better as a starter than as a reliever (because of the warm-up issue), then it turns out to be a net gain for the Rays, especially if that increases Niemann’s value enough that we can trade him for a decent part at a position of greater need.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 18, 2009 1:32 PM EST reply actions