2009 AL Previews: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 7:00 AM EST

Team Name: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2008 W-L Record: 100-62
Place In Division: 1st

Projected Lineup
Player	Pos
Mike Napoli	C
Kendry Morales	1B
Howie Kendrick	2B
Erick Aybar	SS
Chone Figgins	3B
Juan Rivera	LF
Torii Hunter	CF
Vlad Guerrero	RF
Gary Matthews	DH

Key Bench Players
Player	Pos
Brandon Wood	IF
Reggie Willits	OF
Jeff Mathis	C

2009 Projected Rotation
Player	Pos
John Lackey	SP1
Ervin Santana	SP2
John Saunders	SP3
Jered Weaver	SP4
Dustin Moseley	SP5

Key Relievers
Player	Pos
Brian Fuentes	Closer
Scot Shields	Setup
Jose Arredondo	Setup
Darren Oliver	Specialist

2009 Outlook: The Angels are coming off a season in which they outperformed their projected records based on run differential. That means regression is going to be very unkind to the American League West champions. If you ever want to remind yourself what a weak outfield defense is, watch the Angels next season, over the last three years their projected starting outfielders have combined to average roughly -20 runs. That's...um, awful. The Angels should have a good bullpen with Brian Fuentes, Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, and the guy you'll know about soon enough, Jason Bulger. The fifth starters slot is going to be an open competition between Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux, and top prospect Nick Adenhart. When you combine an overrated rotation (only Ervin Santana had a FIP sub 3.9, and only one other starter had one below 4.35) and seemingly average offensive team, and what do you get? A 80-something win team unless luck strikes twice.

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That makes me laugh…

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Feb 2, 2009 9:33 AM EST reply actions

Dumb question

Wouldn’t GMJ be a better LF option than Rivera, if both will be in the lineup anyway?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 2, 2009 11:18 AM EST reply actions

Yep, GMJ can't hit for shit but he can field, he would be bad for DH

He is the type who will have a awesome season……..when its the last year of the contract

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 2, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Probably.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

You cannot be serious.

“When you combine an overrated rotation (only Ervin Santana had a FIP sub 3.9, and only one other starter had one below 4.35) and seemingly average offensive team, and what do you get?”

Lackey was VERY unlucky. That explains the high FIP. Look at his tRA* from 2005-2008. He has been one of the best in baseball from 2005-2008. Check his tRA* and compare him to other AL starters. You can compapre him to the rest of MLB, too. His tRA* (from 2005-2008) ranked in the top 20% in all of baseball for SPers. That makes him a legit #1 starter.

Santana had a legit breakout. He’s an elite starter. Top 10 tRA* in baseball. Top 3 in the AL.

Jered Weaver has been a legit #2 starter if you look at his tRA*. Every year, his tRA* is awesome.

Saunders had a good tRA* in 2008.

For you to sit there and say our rotation is overrated and make it sound less than it is, is simply wrong.

The Angels legitimately have one of the best rotations in baseball.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions

Overrated was probably too harsh.

I’m not sold on Santana being that good, for the same reasons nobody should buy Lackey being poor all the sudden. Saunders, again, most likely not that good.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions

Lackey

Lackey was VERY unlucky. That explains the high FIP.

FIP The pitcher can control three things: walks, strikeouts, and homeruns allowed. Hence, FIP takes each of those into account and puts it on a scale so that league average FIP is equal to league average ERA.

How was he unlucky? His BABIP was a career low. The high FIP is due to the amount of home runs he gave up. His HR9/ doubled from 07 to 08 and that doesn’t have to do with luck.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

I would say:

Lackey 4-4.5 wins
Weaver 3 wins
Santana 3 wins
Saunders ~2.5 wins

That’s about 135 starter runs, throw in an average starter, that’s 155. Last year that ranks them in the top 10, 7th last year, which is what I previously stated.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Well

There is nothing in Santana’s numbers to suggest a decline. He’s legit. In fact, if you judge him by his second half performance, all signs point to him having an even bigger season this year. Keep in mind he was only 25 last year. There is a lot of room for improvement. He’s a strike-throwing machine (particularly in the second half) with some of the best stuff in the game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6280 For his monthly splits

That K/BB ratio since around July 1 is, simply put, sick. For a fireballer to have that kind of command is ridiculous.

Ervin Santana is our best starter, barring some kind of injury or collapse.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions

Okay, and yes he had an awesome year.

But was there any indication prior to 2008 — other than blind optimism — that he was going to break out? Outside of a poor BABIP I see his strikeouts finally reaching his minor league totals, but a steep decline in walk rates unseen since prior to 2005, his second lowest HR9, and really nothing else (e.g. pitch usage) to explain this sudden breakout.

Could it be legit? Sure, but it’s better to be conservative.Plus pitchers don’t age like hitters.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

Nobody could've predicted that

But he had a legit breakout. He started throwing strikes. His command and control greatly improved. He started trusting his stuff and challenged hitters with his great stuff. His velocity improved. He stopped throwing his curve (it gave him problems) and started using his slider a lot more.

Santana throws strikes. He has great stuff. He generates a lot of swinging strikes. He has great command and control.

He has a chance to have an even bigger season this year if his second of last year was an indication of what is to come.

Will he? We’ll see….all signs point to it.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions

I'm obviously a bit skeptical.

We’ll see, but that seems to be where we disagree the most, and if Santana is a ~5-6 win pitcher that obviously affects my outlook on them.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 2, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

started trusting his stuff...and stopped throwing his curveball

no point in there, I think RJ is a little bit pessimistic about the Halos too, on a side note can you get Willits on the cream or the clear and ship him over here ASAP…

'talkin 'bout practice?

by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

His curve

Was/is terrible. I’m glad he stopped throwing that. He completely abandoned that pitch. His curve was killing him. It’s his other pitches that are awesome.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

Were I an Angels fan,

I would be a lot more concerned with that offense. An awful lot of things need to go right for it to be good, and it has a chance to be really bad.

by bobr on Feb 2, 2009 1:42 PM EST reply actions

They obviously don't care about payroll size, so sign Manny already.

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 2, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Hah, yeah!

Our offense (or lack thereof) has been haunting us for years, but we are optimistic about this year.

Vlad/Hunter/Rivera should be a fine outfield (offensively, anyway). Although Rivera will DH over half the time, since his defense is bad. Rivera has a chance to hit something like .300/.350/.500 this year. Obviously, we can’t expect it (the recent injuries + he doesn’t really have that kind of track record, besides 2006) However, he rarely got playing time. Sometimes, he would only get 4-5 ABs per week. With consistent playing time and a full season, I think he’ll shine. He is capable of putting up those numbers, though. He is that kind of skillset.

Napoli is awesome.

I like Figgins, though he’ll get really expensive soon.

Kendrick is Kendrick. He needs to stay healthy and start hitting some HRs. His numbers (BA/OBP/SLG) will improve across the board if he does. He was quoted as saying he never approaches and AB looking to hit it out. He said he never tries to hit a HR. He should be able to hit 15-18 HRs per year if he changes his approach, maybe more. He certainly had power in the minors, and if we use his translated numbers (taking the park he played into consideration) he should hit around 15-18. He needs to change his approach, though. He’ll never reach his potential if he doesn’t. He shouldn’t be happy with an empty batting average. I’ve seen Kendrick hit monster shots before. He hit two 410+ foot HRs to center field in one game.

Morales…eh. It’s so hard to tell with minor leaguers. You just never know. I think he is capable of putting up nice offensive numbers, but we’ll see. He does play solid defense, though.

Aybar is excellent defensively. His offense is suspect, though.

Wood…love his potential. He really broke out in a big way since June in the minors. He started taking a ton of pitches and walks. He had 48 strikeouts and 35 walks since June 28 in the minors. And only struck out 23% of the time. And hit .335/.432/.663 in those 205 ABs (395 total) So…if his second half is any indication of what is to come, watch out. The reason I’m optimistic is because he NEVER displayed that kind of plate discipline before. He never had that kind of K:BB ratio before. He never took that many walks. And the reduced strikeout rate is the icing on the cake. He was actually taking a ton of pitches. He changed his approach for the better. I think he really turned the corner. Angels fans are excited about Wood’s potential and future.

So, if things go right, our offense won’t be a problem. We could have a good offense. We’re just depending on a lot of question marks, though. It’s going to be fun, since we don’t know what to expect.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

anyone else see irony here

bobr gives the shortest reply in his history, and it is followed by a several paragraph response. Sorry for the lack of insight in this thread just had to point that out.

'talkin 'bout practice?

by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 2, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Bobr speaks softly yet carries a big stick

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 2, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

I will be honest, before today, I would have never compared Bobr

to Teddy Roosevelt…

In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!

by thebaddancingraysfan on Feb 2, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

We'll now you'll know better.

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 2, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

You have kind of made my point.

A lot of questions have to be answered positively. They might be, and there may be indications they will be, but with a few exceptions there is little major league performance to be confident in the optimism. And if a few do not meet the hoped for improvement, the offense is really in trouble.

Every team can say the same thing about their players and prospects as you have about Kendrick, Wood & Rivera. (I think Hunter’s offense is on the decline.) If Nick Johnson is healthy, he is awesome. If Zimmerman fulfills his offensive potential, combined with his great defense, he is a superstar. If Dukes maintains his cool and Milledge becomes the player he can be as he demonstrated in the second half of 2008 etc., etc, etc., the Nationals will have a terrific offense.

by bobr on Feb 2, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Yep

That’s why I’m a little upset the Angels are standing pat. They could explore trades. Maybe for Nick Swisher? We might be able to get him for cheap. Either way, we could be in big trouble if our question marks don’t pan out or at least don’t provide adequate production.

We can’t expect to over-perform this year like we did in 2008. Plus, the division is going to be much tighter. I think the Angels are still slightly favored to win it, but anything can happen. Injuries, decline, etcetera.

I can’t even begin to imagine what a disaster it’d be if one of our offensive pieces went down, like Hunter, Guerrero, etc. Because, right now, we’re relying on a ton of question marks as is. We don’t need to rely on more.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

"Kendrick is Kendrick"

Which means you shouldn’t be expecting too many home runs. He has the potential to hit .350, but I wouldn’t expect more than about 10 HRs a season. Translated numbers for the Angels’ minor league system don’t mean much, as I’m sure you know. More than any other team their minor league parks are all severe hitters’ parks that greatly inflate home run numbers.

Wood should be better than he has been. Morales probably isn’t improving much on where he is right now. He was a relatively finished product when the Angels signed him out of Cuba, and it just turns out he wasn’t actually as good as people thought he was.

I wouldn’t count on Napoli continuing to be awesome either. Still good, but he’s probably closer to a .250/.350/.500 hitter than what he did last year.

Also, you’re still missing the fact that the team’s record was actually much better than its performance last year. Teams don’t tend to repeat that from year to year – a little of it is the manager, but most of it is just luck of run distribution. In order to repeat their performance from last year, in all likelihood they’ll need to have a much better team.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 2, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

Except

The calculator I am using accounts for the league and park. Either way, MLEs aren’t indicative of how a minor leaguer will do in the majors. Chone Smith wrote a nice article about that and how his projection system failed big time for minor leaguers (using MLEs). That’s why minor leaguers are so unpredictable. You just never know what will happen. Some need time to adjust, some don’t. Some hit instantly, some don’t. Some do better in the majors than in the minors, some don’t. Some do the same, some don’t. Some just don’t hit at all. It’s really unpredictable.

We don’t know how Morales will do. He’ll get a full season this year. We’ll see what happens. He could end up surprising a lot of people.

.250/.350/.500 is about what I expect from Napoli. If he does better, great.

I know that. I never implied otherwise. I know the Angels overachieved. I made that point when I typed, “We can’t expect to over-perform this year like we did in 2008. Plus, the division is going to be much tighter. I think the Angels are still slightly favored to win it, but anything can happen.”

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Gotcha

Missed that last quote.

I realize minor leaguers are unpredictable, but minor league park factors don’t work right for MLEs. For whatever reason, a disproportionate number of guys do worse than would be expected on translation coming out of the biggest hitter’s parks in the minors (Albequerque, Las Vegas, SLC, Asheville, Rancho Cucomonga, Colorado Springs, Calgary back in the day, etc.), at least observationally. I think it’s much easier and more reliable to predict guys who come from relatively neutral parks (relative to MLB, rather than relative to their league; i.e., places like Iowa, Rochester, etc.).

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 2, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

The Angels' new AA park

Is pitcher-friendly. I think Dickey-Stephens Park is the most pitcher-friendly park in the Texas League, although I can’t confirm that. I’ll need to check.

It’ll be a nice test for some of our hitting prospects, like Conger.

by halofans on Feb 2, 2009 3:59 PM EST up reply actions