Where Will Price Begin The Season?

Rob Neyer

8 months ago PriceMultiCyYoungs 28 comments 0 recs |

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This will be interesting to watch play out.

I see both sides of this argument and I’m torn on which side to fall on.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 20, 2009 7:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why do we have to fall on one side or the other?

Why not simply wait to discover what the Rays decide to do?

I do not mean by that that they will make the right decision. They may not. But at this point, how is it possible for us to have enough information to even hazard a guess?

Do we know how much work Price needs on his off-speed stuff? Do we know how promising Niemann or Talbot or Hammel (well, maybe Hammel) look in the spring? Are we privy to the evaluations of Hickey and Maddon about what is best for the team and for Price?

I think those answers are no, and as they are critical questions that must be answered before deciding the best course, it seems to me premature to be proposing, let alone asserting, an answer.

I can say what I hope for, in the sense that I hope that Price proves himself ready to be the star we think he will be, but that is quite different from saying I think he should be in the rotation come April, or even that I hope he will be. Neyer is making a lot of assumptions he is no position to make and evaluating the specific case based on general propositions, not on the actual circumstances of the Rays and Price.

by bobr on Feb 20, 2009 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well there is statstical evidence to go on

Which is typically every bit as reliable as scouting in determining future performance.

That said, most projections I’ve seen on Price have him at a 4ish ERA, with a good, but not great K/BB ratio…hardly enough to make a firm decision either way.

by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 20, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No question that the statistical information is useful,

but at this point it is still incomplete. And additionally, while the statistics might give us some idea about what to expect, it can’t tell us specifics about what Price needs to work on. Nor is there enough yet to tell us what the Rays should do about Niemann or Talbot.

As you say, hardly enough to make a firm decision either way, so apparently we agree. I don’t know that observations this spring will add enough data to make any decision definitely correct, but it seems to me foolish to draw conclusions about the best course even before spring training begins.

I agree with Tommy Rancel; I too trust the Rays’ judgment and think that the development of Price trumps other concerns despite the fact that we expect to be in a pennant race. I am not even sure that Price is the best option in the rotation to help us win the division, at least not now. That does not mean I know the Rays will make the right decision, just that they will make one based on information and thoughtful analysis.

by bobr on Feb 20, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

That Niemann was up near the top of the International League in FIP and Ks last year, his first full healthy season since college, and he did this while pitching in a relative hitter’s park. I’m not convinced that Price is a better MLB starter next year than Niemann, and I’m also not convinced that in the long term Niemann isn’t a better MLB starter than Sonnanstine. Still, if the FO thinks Price is ready and that Niemann can work out of the pen effectively, then Niemann’s stuff and past performance indicates that he should be a very good reliever. It’s a good problem to have.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Because that's the fun of baseball!

It’s fun guessing what guys will do, and what teams will do.

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 20, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes,

Guessing is fun. Nothing wrong with that. As long as we realize it is guessing only, and not even informed guessing.

by bobr on Feb 20, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Frankly

I don’t think there’s a wrong decision here, as long as the person who gets waived if a trade can’t be worked out is Hammel.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with this...

Last year the Rays, to save money, left Evan Longoria in Durham for a month. I supported the move, and of course they got away with it. But if I were them, I wouldn’t go to that well again. Last year a lot of things went right for the Rays. This year some things will go wrong. This isn’t the time to station one of your best units where nobody is trying to win a war.

Positiion players are not equal to starting pitchers. Just because we did this last year with Longoria doesn’t mean we can’t or shouldn’t do it with Price this year. Ultimately, I trust the judgement of Friedman and Co. to determine what is best for the development of Price. I’ll quote Friedman on this “Development is king.”

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 20, 2009 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also, the saving money with Longoria was made a non issue after 6 days.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 20, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I’d have to think money was a non issue with Longoria as they had to be very deep into contract talk with him when he was sent down. Hard to believe that contact was thrown together in six days.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 20, 2009 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think they had the contract ready well in advance of 6 days

And that they were anticipating sending him down all along. Sending him down certainly effected the balance of power in the contract negotiations, but it appears both sides to the deal were negotiating with the understanding that it was a possibility all along.

by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 20, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but the rays had an advantage in negotiating his contract because of those six days.

by walkoffwalk on Feb 20, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Being what?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 20, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pray tell

I’m confused too. The six days would seem to hurt the Rays’ case.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Will Carrolls opinion

From his chat yesterday

birkem3 (Dayton, OH): It looks like the Rays will need a 5 three times in April – the 12th at Baltimore, the 25th at Oakland, and the 30th vs Boston. In May, it looks like they’ll need him at least the next two times through the rotation, so Price call-up for the 25th?

Will Carroll: Seems reasonable. I’d give Hammel or Niemann that start on the 12th, assuming the Rays haven’t traded one by then. Ha, you know, the Rays have so much brainpower right now that the last thing they need is second-guessing from me.

by Sveet on Feb 20, 2009 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes plz

Giving Niemann that start and then Price being called up is fine with me……unless he can fix his change and make it out of Spring. Another small thing to realize is if Price gets the #5 spot then Kazmir goes #2 if Niemann wins it then he may go Opening Day.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 20, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Ha, you know, the Rays have so much brainpower right now that the last thing they need is second-guessing from me."

I dig this quote. I don’t necessarily agree with the rationale, but it looks like Friedman is getting to that Beane/Epstein level of mythology.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there is plenty of precedence for this

At nearly every opportunity, if a guy has options, and there is a viable alternative without options, the optionable player has been sent down. We have seen this coming into last year where Ruggiano had a decent spring and RF was a glaring hole. We have seen this with guys like Talbot last year, choosing Hammel to stay up due to his lack of flexibility. This team is not going to give away something for nothing, and it makes a lot of sense to keep Price down on the farm for up to 2 months while they showcase the guys that are less flexible.

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 20, 2009 10:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Will all due respect, senator

Justin Ruggiano is no David Price

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 20, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 20, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't always work that way

Examples in the Rays history include trading Bobby Seay and Jorge Sosa in favor of keeping other guys up.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the number of starts for the 5 guys is a huge point

this reminds of the Hamels/Shileds article a month or so ago. He talked about how Cole is making more money now partly because his clock started running a couple weeks before shileds. So if you wait till the 25th to call him up you miss out on 2 starts (12 innings?). I think it is a no brainer. Start him in the minnors to save money and his arm for the future.

by JRays on Feb 20, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What is he talking about?

Maddon is already on the record that he intends to put Price in the rotation. And if they re-sign him like they re-signed Longoria, putting him through what Evan experienced last year will be pointless.

Unless Price screws the pooch during spring training, he will be with the big club from the start.

Lay off the stadium, Iwamura

by Orlando Rays on Feb 20, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

looks like long break from the #5 starter

If Price gets called up before that start on the 25th, he will get rusty

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 20, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that is what he said.

As I remember, he was talking about Price’s ultimate role on the team, not on his role coming out of spring training. I may indeed be wrong about that, so you may have the quotation to demonstrate I am wrong, but I think the point was that the Rays did not see Price as a closer as some were suggesting. It was not that he would start the season in the rotation.

by bobr on Feb 20, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Maddon gets to make that call

Ever since the Cormier signing, I’ve been of the opinion that the only thing that makes sense is to start Price in AAA if you can’t work out a trade.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 20, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

AAA is the smart move

The only real reason to start him in the majors is to appease the fans. The inconsistent work as the #5 starter doesn’t justify him being up given the money angle.

I’m more interest in what the Rays are going to do about their depth at starting pitching. We have some guys that could compete as SP on other teams that really have little chance here and we have guys that could certainly be part of the rotations of other teams while having little chance here. Might as well trade them.

Mid-season Price is in the rotation. The leave one spot for Davis, Neimann, and Sonny. Davis and/or Neimann could very well be better than Sonny. Although it is far more likely that Sonny will be very undervalued in trade talks by the other not so smart GMs around the league. Either way we have a ton of depth and something has to give somewhere.

by matthan on Feb 23, 2009 9:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs