Who do you want to see as the Rays fulltime closer in 2009?
by Price14 on Feb 20, 2009 10:15 PM EST
29 comments
I picked Izzy because I still think he has the ability to get batters out late. He was good all the way up until he got his surgery. He might be old, but he can still get the job done.
Balfour Has the stuff to be a closer, but I don't think Maddon agrees with me.
Wheeler should stick to being a set up man he is good at it.
Percy should split saves with Izzy because they will both be hurt at some point.
0 recs |
29 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Balfour.
I’d be willing to give Isringhausen a shot if he has anything left in the tank.
Agreed
I would like to see Chad Bradford, but I think he is out. So I guess the next best option would be Joe Nelson.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 21, 2009 12:24 AM EST up reply actions
I concur.
IF there has to be a “closer”, it should be the best pitcher, which has a 80% chance of being Balfour. Howell’s probably the number two choice.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 21, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
I disagree that the closer should be the best pitcher
The best pitchers, like Howell and Balfour, are better served to be used situationally. Whether it is getting out of jam or facing the oppenants best hitters. Using them as The Closer will often waste them in the 9th, or not use them in the 7th.
The guy who I think should be closer is Chad Bradford (If he was healthy) because while he gives up some hits and doesn’t strikeout anyone, he rarely walks hitters. That is what you want for a closer starting the inning.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 21, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
They are NOT better served to be used situationally, that's my point. And the data backs me.
Take a look at this: http://skyking162.com/2008/08/do-closers-or-setup-men-face-more-fire/
In summary: Of the 25 relievers with the highest pLIs (which measures the average importance of their appearances), only three had fewer than 14 saves. Heath Bell appears, who had a lower pLI than Trevor Hoffman. Hideki Okajima appears, who had a lower pLI than Papelbon. Tyler Walker apears, who had a lower pLI Brian Wilson.
On the Rays last year, here are the pLIs of the big names (higher is more important):
1.80 Percival (closer)
1.72 Wheeler (backup closer)
1.65 Bradford
1.26 Balfour
1.26 Howell
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Wouldn't that be because closers are almost always used in high leverage situations
while setup men are often used low leverage situations. I know that kind of proves your point, but what I am trying to say is that your best pitcher should always be used in the highest leverage situation of each games.
For example, if a reliever is pitching with a 3 run lead in the bottom of the 8th with the bases loaded and nobody out, wouldn’t that be a higher leverage situation than the next inning which could be a 3 run lead with nobody on and nobody out? Most teams however (the Yankees not withstanding) wouldn’t bring in there closer with nobody out in the 8th because the wouldn’t want to “waste them”. However it is likely that that situation will have the highest LI of the game, so wouldn’t you want your best reliever in there?
That is why I am so encouraged by Tony La Russa saying that he would treat each inning situationally instead of a direct pecking order.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Feb 24, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
Yes!
And I’m totally in favor of using a “relief ace” model where high-leverage situations are king instead of a “closer” model where saves are king.
But my point is that given that a team is going to use a closer model, you want your best reliever to be the closer. The closer role in that system sees the more important situations, on average.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Isn't the real debate over
which model to use rather than who presently gets into the most high leverage situations? I think it likely that designated closers see more high leverage situations simply because a tie or one run game in the 9th inning is always a higher leverage situation than one in the 6th. The question really is whether the relief ace, the best pitcher, should be reserved for the 9th regardless or whether he should be inserted earlier if the situation calls for the best pitcher.
I don’t know how anyone could disagree with you that IF the closer model is in place, it should be the best pitcher. The issue is SHOULD the closer model be in place or should the best pitchers be used more flexibly. If Maddon retains a closer model, it should probably be Balfour, but that would limit his impact as his big K rate would be unavailable in a tie game in the 7th inning and a runner on 3B with no outs. Sure he would see more high leverage situations than anyone else, but he would also be missing some while relieving when his particular excellence is least valuable.
Yes, that should be the real debate. And I'm 100% in favor of a relief ace.
There does seem to be people who disagree with “IF the closer model is in place, it should be the best pitcher”, though.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
group hug
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 24, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah.
If I had to choose, it would be Percy/Wheeler/Izzy.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 20, 2009 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
Mich Talbot!
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Feb 20, 2009 11:41 PM EST reply actions
Jeff Niemann
if not, then I think Izzy will be good this year.
But please Niemann as soon as Price gets his change fixed.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
Went with Wheeler
Balfour is too valuable to be limited to one spot. Percy will take over once he’s off the DL. I dont think Izzy will make the team out of spring training. I think they will want to let him rest up in Durham and make sure he’s 100% before bringing him back. Might as well take advantage of the minor league contract…
im leaning towards izzy
when healthy he is still good, him and percy can switch off when they go on and off the DL
TB Rays in 09!!!
I've said this before and I'll say it again...
In the types of bullpens that most managers use these days, the closer ends up pitching in more of the important situations than any other role. In saber-geek speak, closers see the highest leverage over the course of the season. So you want your best pitcher to close. While a set-up guy is certainly important and will see many high-leverage 7th and 8th-inning situations, he also sees a lot of low-leverage situations, more than a closer.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Explanation
I’d rather have the best pitchers used in whatever situation they’re most valuable, but I’d still rather have a single-use closer who doesn’t suck and who won’t get ridiculously expensive just because he’s getting saves.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
You do realize that even though a closer does pitch in some dumb situations, he still pitches in a ton of important ones, right?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Yes
Which is why I want someone who’s actually good (I believe Niemann will be good, especially if he’s able to pitch in spurts) pitching in that role. Nelson’s the second or third best pitcher in the bullpen this year, did I lead you to believe something different?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I still don't see you addressing the demonstration that closers see more important situations than setup guys.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Grandstand: Crunch time in September arrives again
- Hello, Bourjos: Angels rookie plays it fast on both sides of ball
- An off-the-wall take on why the Twins will make the World Series
- John Lindsey couldn't have come any closer to his first at-bat
- The Juice: Swisher ends Orioles sweep dreams with timely homer
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
