A Deeper Look at the Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen: Post-Isringhausen Edition
We've talked a lot about preventing bullpen regression next season on an individual and staff-wide basis. Naturally, Andrew Friedman and staff have put those concerns to rest with a number of reliever additions, all baring some usefulness. It might be time to bury any concerns we had about the pen regressing to hell.
Left-handed specialist
Last year the Rays signed Trever Miller and claimed Kurt Birkins off waivers as their LOOGY additions. Miller did a decent enough job when called upon, and Birkins has an abbreviated run for the Rays early in the season, although most of his time would be spent in Durham. Both are now out of the organization, with Miller signing in St. Louis and Birkins going to Colorado on a minor league deal. In their places are Brian Shouse and Randy Choate. The only similarities the pairs feature are contract types and dexterity. It's not stretch to say the Rays have improved in talent while spending less money.
Below you will see a chart with labels such as "L3YFIP", don't be confused, that simply means the last three seasons of the players career have been weighted (on a 5-3-2 scale) and the number is a representation of that statistic. I've included FIP, tRA, and pLI, but it's important to note that pitchers have next to no control over their pLI. The inclusion is simply to show how previous teams have used them, not necessarily how the Rays will use them.
| Name | Shouse | Miller |
| L3YFIP | 3.87 | 3.95 |
| L3YtRA | 4.44 | 4.47 |
| L3YpLI | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Salary | 1.55 | 1.6 |
First up, the major league lefty specialist:
Shouse appears to be a better pitcher despite being used in tougher situations. In equal innings the differences are quite marginal, however we should factor in Shouse's usage in Milwaukee as questionable, given Ned Yost's poor bullpen management. Miller will be guaranteed a third of Shouse in 2009 and yet might earn 2 mil based on appearances, but Shouse is actually making less than Miller did in 2008 and less than Miller's option called for.
Now we move on to Choate and Birkins.
| Name | Choate | Birkins |
| L3YFIP | 3.54 | 4.61 |
| L3YtRA | 3.54 | 4.74 |
With a lack of consistent major league spots, the above numbers are a mixture of major league and minor league performances, I'm not aware of a readily available pLI measure for minor leaguers otherwise I would list it. Regardless, Choate shows a clear advantage of Birkins. Add in a funky throwing motion and the run advantage is all the sweeter.
Groundballer
| Name | Cormier | Bradford |
| L3YFIP | 4.26 | 3.61 |
| L3YtRA | 4.85 | 3.68 |
| L3YpLI | 0.78 | 1.46 |
| Salary | 0.65 | 3.5 |
Necessitated by injury, Cormier's numbers look poor thanks to being a failed starter. The Rays added a number of additional groundball minor league relievers, here they are:
| Name | Childers | Day | Rodriguez | DePaula |
| L3YFIP | 3.49 | 3.18 | 3.93 | 4.52 |
| L3YtRA | 3.59 | 4.69 | 3.57 | 4.3 |
Late innings
A wild Isringhausen appears!
| Name | Izzy | Percival | Balfour | Howell | Wheeler | Nelson |
| L3YFIP | 4.7 | 4.7 | 3 | 3.34 | 4.09 | 3.79 |
| L3YtRA | 5.3 | 4.35 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.19 | 4.2 |
| L3YpLI | 1.94 | 1.4 | 0.89 | 1.15 | 1.66 | 1.14 |
| Salary | ~2 | 4.55 | 1 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
Summary
The bullpen will most likely look like this:
Percival/Isringhausen
Wheeler
Howell
Balfour
Nelson
Shouse
Cormier
That's at a cost of ~13 million. Which isn't too bad, although that's without Bradford's 3+ mil and Izzy's potential salary. Next year the cost should drop which is good, considering most relievers are either really good or really replaceable. The Rays have a stable of arms capable of filling in given injury or other incapacity. They also have one excellent reliever in Grant Balfour and a handful of decent types.
I'm impressed.
*For players missing a year (Nelson, Percival, ect.) I assumed a league average performance.
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13 comments
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Comments
ridiculous talent
great write up, looks like even with the expected regression of Balfour and Howell the rest of the team should pick up the slack to at least get us back to last years performance. Also I was wondering if the More from Draysbay/SB nation links are going to be a regular feature at the end of posts from now on (wondering if I have to adblock it or not lol).
'talkin 'bout practice?
by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 21, 2009 4:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The network is about to undergo a "transformation" of types.
The tags/“around SBN” thing is still in feedback mode, so I can’t really say either way.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The 'More from DRaysBay/SB Nation' thing is nice, except
It’s a little large on the page; maybe if they moved it to the bottom underneath the comments it would look nicer to me. Also, those links need to have original posting dates in addition to author and comments.
by kericr on Feb 21, 2009 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I didn’t notice the sidebar comment below; if moving it to the side-bar is suggested, it makes the "Related on " box near the top somewhat redundant.
by kericr on Feb 21, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
At least it’s actually using the keywords now though.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 21, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The algorithm for related posts hasn't changed.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 21, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure if you'll be able to adblock it, frankly
It’s part of sbnation, and if you block assets.sbnation.com, you’ll probably block the whole site. It’s on all of their pages now though. I can’t say I’m a huge fan. I’d prefer if it showed up on the sidebar.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 21, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Complain on blog huddle
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 21, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is why i like Andrew so
much. It was obvious to him that a pen regression was very likely and still could happen but not for lack of addition
He has my utmost respect
I love what he said about being complacecent. He states that by doing more than a 20% TO you should prevent that
by Raymondo on Feb 21, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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