The 2009 DRaysBay Season Preview
Now available for download.
(Right click -- save target as -- ect.)
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We were not planning on doing another edition after how poorly the last one turned out, but SeanDubb's fanpost and additional comments pushed us towards it. I'm proud of the staff for cranking out enough quality and original content to fill 80 pages in less than a month's time. To answer some questions:
Who is this guide for?
Rays fans or baseball fans who want to know more about the team collectively than they can find elsewhere. Warning: if you're not a Rays fan, a sabermetrically inclined baseball fan, or someone who generally hates the content on this site, odds are you will not like most of the stuff inside. As a measure to provide some entertainment for as many as possible, we've enlisted a number of guest writers, each with a particular set of skills and information to share.
Why should I read this guide?
Um.
LOL teh guide suckz!
Thanks, but that's neither creative or constructive. Some examples of what I would consider worthwhile criticism:
"I think you put too much value on the various defensive metrics."
"I disagree with your take on Kazmir because it's possible he's all ready passed his prime."
Ect., simply saying "You guys suck, I hate you, and your [sic] wrong about everything, just admit it." Is dumb.
Plus, even I hate us.
Ugh. Graphs/Stats.
Welcome to DRaysBay, we provide means of intelligent baseball discussion through words and images such as PitchF/x charts, Win Expectancy Graphs, and your general data graphs. Some people take to graphics better than words and some data is easier to present in a graph than a table. Deal with it.
As for the stats, we've included the stats guide in the back. If you have further questions about any of the charts or graphs there's always asking. Nobody is going to think less of you for asking what "X-Break" means or why we use tRA instead of ERA. People will think less of you if you continue to use ERA in place of tRA or FIP even after having the advantages of defensive independent stats explained.
Is there fantasy baseball talk?
Yes, we made that request a priority.
Are there projections?
Yes, the ones compiled through the community are included.
Why weren't names assigned to each player write-up? Why are you hiding?
We aren't. The staff doesn't agree on everything, but we're willing to stand by the others' opinions thanks to a history of showing logic and competency. Odds are, not everything projected is going to be correct. You know this, we know this, if you don't know this then you should know this. Saying a 19-year-old in A-ball could be a number three starter is risky. That's nothing new. We don't claim to see the future, we simply use measures with historic predictive values to make our best guess and assumptions.
2 recs |
51 comments
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Comments
cool
I apprecaite the reading material, it will help keep me busy until the season gets rolling.
by Rays4242 on Feb 23, 2009 6:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You guys want spelling and grammer feedback?
No slight, just wondering.
by plasticman on Feb 23, 2009 7:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is the 2009 projected win total?
85?
by plasticman on Feb 23, 2009 7:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well according to the chart and the community projections
the Rays have a likelihood of around 100% of winning 85 games, close to 80% chance of 90 wins, 60% of 100 wins. According to the community projections alone, it had the Rays at 106 wins, which we felt was screwed a bit by all our homerism.
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 23, 2009 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever, they're going to win 107
/sarcasm
by Erik Hahmann on Feb 23, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
107 is lowballing it
116 FTMFW
by Jason Collette on Feb 23, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So my lunch bet with a coworker taking the OVER on 85 Rays wins is nearly 100%?
Ship my sandwich.
I love preying on those less informed baseball fans wrt betting.
Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's. For further statistical analysis, Beyond the Box Score.
by iamawesomer on Feb 23, 2009 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
s usual--well done
lots of great material
by Raymondo on Feb 23, 2009 8:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hope you all enjoy the guide
I think I can speak for everyone at DRB when I say I had a really fun time working on it.
by Erik Hahmann on Feb 23, 2009 8:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
rather, what website does he own?
by walkoffwalk on Feb 23, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's at Baseball Prospectus now
But he’s also the founder of Beyond the Boxscore
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 23, 2009 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A note on the magnificent 10
Just skimming through the guide, noticed this. Game #2, Garza’s one-hitter. It states “Matt Garza was so close, so, so, so close to the first no hitter in Rays history, but one pitch got away from him.”
Now if memory serves me correctly, that pitch didn’t ‘get away from him.’ Hanley Ramirez hit that thing off the top of his shoes. In a magnificently-pitched game, it was a magnificent piece of hitting that Garza barely could do anything about.
by kericr on Feb 23, 2009 10:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I though the same, but then I looked at the pitch.
It was knee high, but still a great job by Hanley to go out there and put it where it he did.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 23, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
I just went back and viewed the video, my recollection was way wrong, I remembered the pitch was low and in. It was a tough pitch to hit, but yeah it could have broken quite a bit more.
by kericr on Feb 23, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought the same. It was still a good pitch and some good hitting.
He had thrown some nasty sliders to Ramirez in the 1st inning, but this one wasn’t quite as nasty.
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 23, 2009 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think gameday is wrong. that pitch was nearly in the dirt
by walkoffwalk on Feb 23, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look it up on MLB.com
It’s on there. The pitch isn’t in the dirt; it’s knee-high outside just in the strike zone. Ramirez bucked his knees to get to it, but I think it was so he could put the center of the bat on it, not merely to make contact. The Gameday image has it about right.
by kericr on Feb 23, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
I was looking for a reason not to go to class today
by Roc on Feb 23, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Mass Communication law or.....
sit in bed, eat sammichs and read the preview. Not a tough decision
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Feb 23, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Favorite Part so far
Is the win breakdown by how the player was acquired (i.e. draft round, free agency, trade, etc). Nice to see everyone is wrong and that the Rays didn’t just win because they had lots of early first round picks. Most, if not all, of us already knew this, but now we have facts!
by RaysTheRoof on Feb 23, 2009 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Trading first rounders for other pieces should still be considered getting value from first rounders, but yeah.
Delmon for Garza and Bartlett, for example.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
This should be factored in. That would probably make the numbers a lot closer than they currently appear.
by RaysTheRoof on Feb 23, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but
you have to include Brendan Harris as part of that deal which likely would not have been made without him. (I don’t know how important the minor leaguers were to either side). So while it is true that Delmon Young was the critical piece, it was not really a simple trade of a first round pick but an exchange of Young plus Harris who was himself picked up in a very minor deal and allowed to demonstrate his value with the Rays.
I really doubt that Minnesota gives up both Garza and Bartlett just for Young or even for Young and Pridie. And without Harris it is possible there is no deal at all because I am not sure the Rays would have dealt Young for just Garza.
by bobr on Feb 23, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Great work ...
… especially as I know how MUCH work this must have been!
by BurGi on Feb 23, 2009 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I read like 40 pages
Awesome so far but the information is making my head explode……I will read the rest later
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Feb 23, 2009 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great job, Kaz piece was worth waiting for
love the quote from Normandin “(No one saw the Rays coming)…your everyday, average
fan did not see this. Especially not the pompous drunks in the Fenway bleachers.”
And thanks for including my favorite srq picture of all time on pg66, Zimmer with box of popeyes,
'talkin 'bout practice?
by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 23, 2009 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
LOL teh guide suckz!
You guys suck, I hate you, and your [sic] wrong about everything, just admit it.
Also, ERA, ERA, ERA, and….ERA
by Patrick L. Kennedy on Feb 23, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PLK comes from the myst, and slowly retreats back....
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on Feb 23, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot to mention
that we are all bandwagon fans.
by bobr on Feb 23, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait to hound you guys for another one next season.
Kudos to everyone that contributed for not only getting this out quickly, but listening to your readers’ requests and making it a reality. No one is going to completely agree with the content, but everyone should appreciate the effort that was put forth first and foremost. Great job!
I want Baldelli to be healthy enough to play in 150 games, I just hope he sucks. Like Greg Vaughn suck.
by SeanDubbs on Feb 23, 2009 3:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Awesome.
Thanks for putting in the time and effort on this – great job!
by fogelberg on Feb 23, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My last act as an active blogger (for the time being)...
seems to be well-received. Much thanks should go out to the guests and of course YOU the reader. Why would we waste our time if no one was going to read it?
New jobs with work suck! Especially without a home laptop. :(
by rglass44 on Feb 23, 2009 10:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
WHAT THE!! WHAT THE!!
BULLSHIT!!
Swav or Die.
by SRQman on Feb 24, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just finished and Kudos to all those involved.
Great read!
Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 23, 2009 11:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Great Work and thumbs up to all those who were involved.
The more I read about this 09’ team, the more excited I get.
by twenty5psi on Feb 24, 2009 2:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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