Stu Sternberg Says Rays Have No Payroll Flexibility
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 24, 2009 1:43 PM EST
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PrintAndrew Friedman has been telling us the Rays have been close to the limit in terms of payroll, but Stu Sternberg confirmed it this morning by telling reporters the following:
In past talks I've had in spring training, I've responded and said we'll have that flexibility. We don't have that flexibility,'' he said. "At some point, you put your back to the wall, and I think that's where we are right now. We, quite frankly, can't really afford what we've got on the field this year. At least we were able to spend the money on a lot of value, we think, and pieces that will give us the opportunity to grow the franchise over the long haul that gives us the best opportunity for success this year. This was one where somewhat of my competitiveness came out in this. I think we have a real opportunity to win.''Heater
Sternberg also added that the lack of flexibility would limit the team's ablity to makes moves mid season, but added:
"you never say never" and his answer could be "a little different" in June or July.
This makes the signings of Jason Isringhausen, Adam Kennedy and Morgan Ensberg all that more important. With lack of flexiblity to go and get another player from other teams, each could serve as a mid season acquisition in their own right. Also, Chad Bradford could be a shot in the arm(no pun intended) when he returns in May or June.
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I am not too worried
We have enough where we don’t need to add players and I think if they see a perfect trade for their team come July, they will go for it.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
I want the Doc
Matt Holliday is yet another OF that needs a spot but imagine Halladay – Shields – Kazmir – Garza – Price
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
I have a feeling attendance will be surprisingly very good if we are competitive
Average 30k+ quite easily IMO if we are competitive. People are kind of disenchanted with the Bucs and the Bolts stink. Plus we have some interesting and good personalities on the team. Plus people really do like the way the team is run. People will be very pleasantly surprised at the attendance IMO. Thatll give them a bit more revenue.
If they want more money they should just come out with a jersey with Tampa Bay on it. They’d sell an aircraft carriers worth of those.
Sometime people underestimate the value of a season ticket base.
Look at the Lightning, when they became winners ~03’ the season ticket base began to grow, and during and after the cup year they were selling out the 2nd largest arena in hockey on a nightly basis, in a “non hockey market”.
I’m guessing the season ticket base will grow significantly this year, to say the least, thats garaunteed revenue for the team, more attendence, etc.
It has grown
But at this point, they already pretty much know what the season ticket base is, and Stu is making these statements based on where things are right now. Unless walk-ups are greater than anticipated, or a new revenue stream comes into play, or there’s a huge turnaround in the general economy, don’t expect to see too much more by the way of taking on additional payroll.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Agreed
The deadline for final payment on renewals has already passed. I don’t think there will be a huge influx of season-ticket holders at this point. Maybe some 20 game plans and whatnot.
by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 24, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly, I expect good attendance
I think their problem is that the team can’t raise prices right now. They’ll have good attendance figures but game tickets are still rediculously cheap; the Rays are probably still near the bottom of the league in the total cost to go to the game between ticket prices, parking, and concessions.
Personally, I wouldn’t have minded if the Rays increased their ticket prices a little more; as long as they don’t go all Lightning on us and let ticketmaster start raping the fanbase. Paying a $7 surcharge on a $19 ticket chapped my ass enough to keep me away from more games last year; and it’s encouraged me to go to no games this year.
I think attendence this year will be head over heals better then in past years.
I would be greatly surprised if the Rays did not, at the very least, threaten to break the attendence record set in ’98. I say this based on the public show of support around the area. I see Rays apparel every day I go out. In years past I would be luck to see a Devil Rays hat once, maybe twice a week. I think the Tampa/ St. Pete area will show up. And if the Rays are winning, you will see close to sell-outs on a nightly bases.
In the name of Shinji Mori, we shall win!
by thebaddancingraysfan on Feb 24, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions
I'm gonna go out on a limb
and say that there’s a probability of .99 that the Rays break the attendance record this year. especially considering the season ticket sales and the good points brought up by everyone above. the only thing that would prevent that from happening is if they have an absolute collapse this year, which seems highly unlikely.
That's 31k a night on average
Umm….yeah
by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 24, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions
40% increase in attendance would be amazing
and extremely rare.
NCAA Baseball Opening Day - Feb. 20th
Should we ask Hank for more money?
I mean, he did graciously give us this fantastic team.
9=2 apparently
or...
is this the prelude to not being able to afford Mr. Ray himself Carl Crawford ? C.C. has only an option year left, with Sternberg crying poverty it gives him an out to not re-sign or pick up C.C.’s contract for next season.
We have at least Bradford and Percival coming off the books next year...
…Plus probably a few other moves should free up some $$$ to sign CC to an extension, if they want to.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Feb 24, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
There's absolutely no way the Rays decline Crawford's option.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
If they were even thinking of going that way they’d still pick up his option, and then trade him.
by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 24, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
What if..
his performance and the economy fail to rebound?
His option could be for $11.5 MM in ‘10 if he hits his escalators – which have to be based on AB’s / PA’s and/or games played. He missed time last year, so maybe / maybe not on reaching them.
Are you willing to pay him $11.5 if he duplicates ’08’s numbers in 155 GP?
Looking at the 2010 payroll picture, contracted increases plus exercising the option on Aki (at the higher $5.25 MM number he’s likely to earn) offset the reductions from FA’s Percy, Bradford, Kapler and an option decline on Shouse. Then you’re looking at arb eligibles – Balfour, Bartlett, Navarro, and Gross again, and adding Nelson and Cormier (likely arb 2’s), arb 1’s in Upton and Howell, and likely S2’s in Garza and Riggans. Of course, some could be non-tendered, traded, extended, etc. But there’s some significant increases coming there – what do you think Upton and Garza’s increases will be like if they have good seasons?
If all this comes to pass (and it’s admittedly a lot of hypotheticals), attendance doesn’t move comparable to ’08’s top MLB increase, the Rays miss the playoffs, with Friedman saying the coffers are empty now, CC could be on the block.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
As poor as his offense was last season, he was still worth 12 million.
Again, there’s absolutely no way the Rays don’t pick up his option, even it’s just to trade him.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
That's sabermetric worth.
Actual worth is what teams will pay.
Not saying I don’t agree they’re likely to pick him up, just offering a set of possibilities that could run contrary to that. They could also trade him at the deadline – his value could be at its highest then – if the season goes south.
Keeping him could push the ‘10 payroll towards the $80 MM range. Sure, some arbs could be moved and/or replaced by prospects (Bartlett / Brignac, Gross / Joyce, Nelson / Niemann, Cormier / Talbot). But those aren’t huge savings (maybe $3.5 MM) – increases for Balfour, Navarro, Upton, Howell, and Garza will chew that up and then some. And with Friedman saying the budget is shot, despite a 5K attendance increase in ’08 and added revenue from 8 home playoff games, how can they increase payroll in ’10 without duplicating ’08 in ’09?
I’m not wishing this on TB – I’m a fan of keeping good org guys around so fans can relate.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Who's saying sabermetric worth and worth to the Rays isn't equal?
The odds of your dire scenario occurring seem rather bleak.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'd say the Rays themselves say it isn't
Did they pay Burrell his saber DH value? Or said value to Kapler, Cormier, Shouse, or Nelson?
I do expect CC to rebound, and the Rays to pick up the option, though his trade value could be lower after 2009 at the option price than at the July trade deadline. But an $11.5 MM option would be bumping up against that $12 MM “value”.
Frankly, as usual I think Friedman is blowing smoke (or slinging something a bit more odorous).
The Rays in 2008 had baseball’s largest attendance increase (5100 per), plus as many home playoff games as anybody. And are looking at a 20% season ticket increase in 2009. Their projected payroll increase in 2009 is no greater than that of 2008, which came off a much less positive revenue picture – attendance growth of 200 per game, certainly no playoff revenue.
Their ’ 08 payroll % of 2007 revenue was 3rd lowest in baseball at 31.7, way below average. Only 6 teams were below 38. And that’s a skewed view assuming payroll assumptions work off prior year’s revenue numbers, as opposed to a conventional accounting approach where costs are compared to the same year’s revenue – which was clearly much higher for the Rays in ‘08 than ’07. Plus the ’07 revenue numbers I’m using are likely understated – they come from an ESPN table where total franchise revenue of the 30 clubs came to about 5.5 billion, 1 billion less than MLB’s stated revenue for 2007.
Obviously they budgeted a number, and they’ve hit that number. But that doesn’t mean the money isn’t there to do more. It better be or things could start to get interesting after 2009. Their profitability could be taking a bit of a hit going forward, but that’s compared to recent franchise financial performance – which the numbers hint has been extremely good. Where do the org’s priorities lie?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, they did pay Burrell close to his saber value.
Same with Shouse and Nelson. Cormier has been pretty meh, so that’s close, and I don’t recall Kapler’s saber value.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Is that Burrell's value
including the negative defense component? Cause that ain’t likely to be an issue so much this season.
I’m surprised you didn’t show the numbers – but you don’t need to. I trust your accuracy and honesty.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
A quick lookup
suggested Burrell’s WARP in 2008 as 2.8.
Using $4.5 MM per win (am I correct there? This isn’t my strong suit) as the value measure, that calculates to a value of $12.6 MM. That’s quite a little bit more than his average contract value of $8MM, and it appears to include the negative D impact on his value which will be much less of a factor in Tampa. I could be misstating here, but this doesn’t tell me the Rays measure value, and more significantly contract offers, in this way.
Maybe I shouldn’t trust you so?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
They got Burrell for less money.
Three year average = ~2.6 wins, or 12 mil annually. Getting a player for less than his market value is something you obviously jump on.
Even the Yankees seem to be paying ~4.5 mil per win this off-season.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Agree wholeheartedly
Nothing wrong with paying less – I’m just pointing out that there might not be a correlation between saber value and market value going on here. Burrell’s saber value as strictly a DH is much higher than we’re talking.
Hope you know the trust thing was a joke.
By the way, I stated above baseball revenue was $6.5 B in 2007 -incorrect, it was just over $6 B. My apologies. It was $6.5 B in 2008. As a result, local revenues may well have grown too, so no hit on the RS side.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 25, 2009 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
The Rays are cheap
They cry poor attendance but what about revenue sharing?
I think they just want a new stadium. Just taking a page from the Glazers book of idiocy. The problem is Pinellas county never wanted baseball to begin with. They still do not apparently with all this hesitation for a new stadium. I think the only time they (Pinellas County) were happy is when the Cards played at Al Lang. They would pack that stadium every spring!
Devil Rays World Series 2009
by Japhei on Feb 24, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions
Sternberg
But again, on the same hand, we’re still going to be next-to-last in baseball [to the Marlins] in season-ticket sales.
As I've said here before
and Sternberg also pointed out, it’s unfortunate the economy tanked just when the Rays had their first moment of glory. Definetly has blunted the potential benefit going forward.
That said, it’s also true the Rays had the largest attendance increase – in numbers, not just percents – in baseball last season. And don’t forget 2007’s free parking was amended to 4+ in a vehicle in ’08, so that likely spiked revenue too.
It’s also true that revenue sharing net receipts will likely be down significantly, since the Rays local revenue was up. But that doesn’t mean lost revenue – the Rays contribution to the pool will be up, while the pool itself likely shrank a bit. The “take” from RS is the amount over their contribution to the pool the Rays receive when the pool is split 30 ways equally. The only real decline will be 1/30 of the reduced size of the pool. Local revenue shrank in 2008, but Central Fund revenue (national broadcast, merchandise, web revenue) increased, and that is equally shared by all franchises, so the Rays share of total industry revenue will rise. And don’t forget that only 31% of local revenue goes into the RS pool – so the Rays keep the other 69% of their local revenue increase as well. They’re doing just fine.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 24, 2009 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
This so hard and it sucks:
the economy tanked just when the Rays had their first moment of glory.
This is why I hedge my attendance numbers this year.
And I have to ask
what the f*** is all this about?
“We can run our business better drawing a million seven and change when the average attendance is two million than drawing two million people when the average attendance in baseball is 2.6 [million]. Now, I’d love for all the teams to sell out their places all the time and we root for the other teams to do really well, but the problem with that is that we get left behind…. This is a very relative business. If we drew two million fans, which would be spectacular, if everybody else is drawing three and a half or four, we can’t run our business.”
So what does it mean that the Rays attendance in 2008 was just under 1.8 mil, with average attendance of 2.62 mil across all 30 teams? That he can’t run his business?
Sure, slipping behind in the attendance ranks puts a team at a financial disadvantage. The point of the revenue sharing system is to redress that balance somewhat. But the Rays made substantial gains relative to the average in 2008. In 2007 the average was 2.65 mil, while the Rays drew only 1.4 mil. They cut their deficit to the average by 1/3 in 2008. You build a winning ballclub, more fans and revenue will likely follow, allowing you to run your business better.
The fact is in his second and extraordinarily improbable example the Rays would do just fine. Their take from the revenue sharing system would be massive in that case. Although standing out in attendance so badly might prompt some relocation pressure.
It continues to amaze me there isn’t more pressure on the Marlins org by the other franchises about payroll structure relative to revenue sharing. While Tampa had been nearly as bad, they’ve seemingly changed. Loria just keeps taking the money and running. I guess his relationship with the powers at MLB have fended that off, wrapped in the constant hope that a new ballpark in Miami will change things.
As I’ve said before, it seems to me the Competitive Balance tax (Luxury Tax) should have a floor as well as a ceiling. I don’t think a salary floor is any better idea than a salary cap. But I do think if a franchise decides to strip down and rebuild, it should be somewhat on their own dime rather than just taking the RS cash and running. Penalty at the top, penalty at the bottom.
I do think the lux tax ceiling is also getting too high to be effective, as the thresholds rise from $155 MM in ’08 to $162 in ’09, $170 in ’10, and $178 in 2011, the last year of the current CBA.
For example, NY did get whacked in ‘08 for almost $27 mil, largely due to a variety of expensive mid season fill-ins and pricey resigns of fixtures like Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera, plus A-Rod’s opt out, back in deal that ballooned ‘08 payroll. But NY signed the top 3 FA contracts by far this year, yet their tax bill could drop ~ $7 mil from ’08, with Opening Day payroll projected down about $7 MM and Igawa’s $4 MM a year deal off the 40 man books.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 25, 2009 3:02 AM EST reply actions
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