Limiting Pat Burrell's Outfield Exposure

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 24, 2009 2:59 PM EST

Okay, so Pat Burrell will likely play the outfield on Saturday.* We should probably be freaking out, right? Obviously, it's only spring training, but there's a bigger lesson to be learned: prohibiting exposure is less likely than limiting exposure.

*Actually there's going to be a DH, but the main point stands regardless.

What I mean is, odds are Pat Burrell will see the outfield a few times this season. All things being perfect you would like to avoid these occurrences, but all things are not perfect, and Joe Maddon is likely going to give Burrell the chance to mosey in the outfield every so often. For instance, if Maddon's Sunday lineup involves Carl Crawford designated hitting to keep his legs fresh that means either Crawford or Burrell is effectively out of the lineup in favor of the other Gabe or Burrell will have to play left.

Here's the bad news: that's going to cost the Rays runs.

Here's the good news: limited exposure is not going to cost the Rays wins

Even if photographic suggests otherwise...via www.blogcdn.com

Over the last three seasons Burrell has spent a little over 3,210 innings in left and (per UZR) has been worth -33 runs. That's about -0.01 runs per inning or -0.09 runs per nine innings. That means Burrell has to play 100 innings in left to cost the Rays a full run. That's ~12 full games plus some, and I would assume Maddon would pull Burrell late for a defensive replacement, so we're talking closer to 15 games in left per negative run.

The Rays have a little more than 20 Sunday games and a handful of interleague games where Burrell might strand to the grass. The highlights from those games might be hideous, but the actual contribution doesn't figure to be quite that bad.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

We should also limit Japhei's DRB Fanpost exposure

each of his fanposts is worth +1 fail

by ZBW on Feb 24, 2009 3:13 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I'd be worried about the S^3 issues

Let’s see him fail on a broader scale before we label him a bust.

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 24, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

As a Phils fan, I can tell you right now that Burrell’s fielding is not as bad as it’s hyped up to be. He was certainly helped by the speedy Shane Victorino next to him in center, but it’s a similar situation in Tampa with Upton. He only had two errors last season in the field and has only had more than 10 in a season in his career. Most years he was well under that. He’s got terrible range, but if you’re comparing his chances with his errors, he’s not bad at all. The only knock on him is that he’s slow, really.

Would there be any chance of him playing first base with the Rays? He was originally a first baseman with the Phillies.

Broad Street Hockey - SB Nation's Philadelphia Flyers Blog
Because the Broad Street Subway is orange for a reason.

by Travis Hughes on Feb 24, 2009 3:33 PM EST reply actions

Both Pena and Aybar are plus defenders at first base.

I’d guess it would take injuries to both and even then Morgan Ensberg would probably get a shot before at first before Burrell.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 24, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know if Aybar's actually a plus defender at 1B

Very few defensive measures accurately pick up what Pena is best at, which is making sure a ball thrown his way from another infielder turns into an out. Generally, that will credit to the player making the throw, not to the 1B. While Aybar would have great range for a 1B, I didn’t think he was particularly great at staying on the bag, stretching out to make early catches, etc.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 24, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions