Carlos Pena Does Not Like Your Shift

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 27, 2009 2:00 PM EST Comment 17 comments

One of the perks of ~~riding the coattails~~ writing on FanGraphs is the access to data from Baseball Info Solutions. You may have seen David Appelman's piece on shifts a few days ago, which lead me to getting Carlos Pena's data.

Let me preface this by explaining how BIS records the shift data. imagine the Red Sox put the shift on Pena where mostly every infielder is on the right side. Okay, now let's say Pena hits a homerun. That at-bat would not be recorded as against the shift. Why? Well, you can line your fielders up at the walls and there's still a 0% chance that turns into an out. Let's say Pena bunts a pitch towards third and gets an infield single because of it or hits a rocket to right but the oddly positioned second baseman catches it. Those two scenarios would count as "shift plays".

Got it?

Last year Carlos Pena went 8/24 (hits/balls in play) against the shift. That's a BABIP of .333. Pena's career BABIP is .299 and last year it was .307. I don't have the data from previous years, but for one year, Pena beat the shift, and he beat it hard.

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How about

if he hits a grounder to where the second basemen normally would have been playing and the shortstop fields it? Or how about if he hits it to to SS and the 3B fields it? Are these considered shift plays.

by RaysTheRoof on Feb 27, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 27, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only 24?

I would have figured he would have hit more grounders to the right side into the shift.

by RaysTheRoof on Feb 27, 2009 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's about 10% of his non-XBH balls in play.

Not every PA featured the shift or a GB.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 27, 2009 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would have never guessed this stat.

It always seems like the shift worked well on Pena when I watched the games….but I guess I’m wrong.

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Feb 27, 2009 3:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Still worked 66.7% of the time

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 27, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"and he beat it hard"

You know, one less hit and he’s below his career BABIP. So I’m not sure I’d classify it as a whomping.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 27, 2009 5:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Considering he hits most of his balls in that direction, I would consider it a victory.

But semantics.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 27, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably sacrificing accuracy for power

Which is also part of the reason for the shift. Lots of pull hitters can hit singles the other way if they try, but it means they probably won’t get an XBH unless they can get it to go exactly down the line.

Plus, weren’t a couple of his hits bunt base hits?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 27, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs