Mitch Talbot Is Good At Baseball

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 28, 2009 3:50 PM EST Comment 17 comments

Despite the first inning in today's game, Mitch Talbot is still good at baseball. There has been a lot of talk about who should be the Rays 5th starter coming out of camp. Names like Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, David Price, and even Carlos Hernandez have been tossed around. Talbot is the one name that seemingly continues to get lost in the shuffle.

Let's start out with a little background on Mr. Talbot.

Talbot was drafted out of high school in the second round(70th overall) in 2002. He didn't sign immediately and began his professional career in 2003. Talbot would start out 2006 in AA Corpus Christi and pitch well, putting up an ERA/FIP of 3.39/2.81 in 18 games. At mid season he would be traded, along with Ben Zobrist, to the Devil Rays in exchange for Aubrey Huff. He was excellent after landing in Montgomery, winning the organization's pitcher of the month award for August and posting an ERA/FIP of 1.90/2.81 over 10 starts. 2007 saw Talbot receive a promotion to AAA Durham, which also happened to be his worst year as a pro. A career low K/9(6.93) and a career high BB/9(3.30) lead to, you guessed it, a career worst ERA(4.53) and FIP(4.00). However, Talbot rebounded nicely in 2008 making 29 starts with an ERA/FIP of 3.86/3.03 and the lowest BB/9 of his career(1.96). This earned Talbot a call up to the majors, making his debut on September 15th in relief of Scott Kazmir. Eight days later he would make his first, and so far only, start in the majors against the Orioles, earning a no decision in the process

Now that we have that taken care of let's get back to the matter at hand.

It's unfortunate for him that he is in the Rays organization. If he pitched for any other team he would be one of their best prospects, or more than likely would be in their starting rotation. With the Rays he's a 3rd or 4th banana in the group of Price, Niemann, Davis and Hellickson. However, injuries happen. The Rays were pretty fortunate last season having 4 of the 5 members of their rotation make 30+ starts, while Kazmir made 27. It doesn't seem likely they'll have the same good fortune again. Having a pitcher like Talbot that they can call upon is a great luxury.

However, that seems to be Talbot's fate with this team. Even if he does win the 5th starters spot out of spring he will only be keeping the seat warm for David Price. The Rays have so many talented arms that I don't think Talbot is ever going to get a real shot here. He's talented enough to be a young and exciting 4th or 5th starter this season for most other teams. For the Rays he's just another cog in the machine.

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Have thought the same thing since Friedman it would be 4 way battle

It is Niemann vs Price. Price makes the change up a plus pitch, he wins. If he doesn’t, Niemann wins.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 28, 2009 3:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

When a sinkerballer doesn't sink

his pitches, bad things happen

MLB>AAA

by Raymondo on Feb 28, 2009 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I honestly think you're overshooting on Talbot

He’s really not that good.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2009 4:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Brick disagrees with something?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 28, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with a lot

But I disagree with the evaluation on Talbot. This is coming from someone who started the Shields and Sonnanstine bandwagons.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What reasons do you give besides

“He’s really not that good”?

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 28, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mostly my gut

But players with his scouting profile tend to do worse in the majors than their minor league records would indicate. His profile fits into the AAAA swingman mold. If he had a true plus pitch, or if he had shown the ability to fool good hitters, I might feel differently. I’ve gone into it quite a bit before though, and just didn’t think I needed to repeat my litany. His control isn’t good enough to compensate for his lack of a plus pitch, and he doesn’t locate his change well enough for it to have the effect of a plus pitch.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 1, 2009 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For anyone sure Niemann will win the spot, check the quote out

"You always think about the possibility [of Niemann being a reliever], and then when you actually see it, it becomes even more of a possibility," Maddon said. "You put him in late in a game and see 96, 97 mph and the downhill look, and it’s like, ‘Holy (cow)’ [ed. note: Romano substituted ‘cow’ for another word to protect the innocent]…"Now we’re going to give him a chance, absolutely, to be the fifth starter. But there’s a real possibility he could go to the bullpen and really help us. He’s the kind of guy you’d have to nurture through, but he’s got real potential."

This makes me think Price is a HUGE favorite for the #5 unless Hammel is actually being considered. If it somehow becomes Price vs Davis, that’s just cool.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Feb 28, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just a note....

the wind was helping the hitters. It was blowing hard and blowing out especially to left which is where I think all of the HR’s of Talbot went.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Feb 28, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wind doesn't usually blow GB out of the park

He’s a sinkerballer, and it clearly wasn’t working

by Raymondo on Feb 28, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just was saying the wind was a factor if you got it up.

One of them was a line drive though. Just telling you what I saw from the game.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Feb 28, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One bad outing doesn't mean he sucks.

Again, throughout the minors he gave up a homerun every 16 innings. Yes, the majors hit more homeruns, no that doesn’t mean he’s going to start giving up two per nine.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 28, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Every home run went out to left yesterday

The only one that really came close to getting out of right was Aybar’s hit in the 1st inning right in front of me.

by McLovin2.0 on Mar 1, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've always thought Talbot has been undervalued.

Don’t get me wrong I don’t think he could ever be a 1 or 2, maybe not even a 3. He however could definately make a servicable 4 or 5. He has a plus change-up and decent fastball. He also has good make-up and a bulldog mentality that doesn’t show because he isn’t “loud” like a Balfour or Price (doesn’t show emotion).

by Dbullsfan on Feb 28, 2009 10:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have been waiting for Talbot to "arrive" since the day we got him from Houston...

And frankly, I’m tired of waiting. He has a locker inscribed already at AAA

by TheUltimateBucFan on Feb 28, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree with Brick as well

I don’t think he sucks, but he’s not what Erik’s making him out as either.

None of the major prospect analysts are very high on him. A AAA starter that’s in the teens, even in your org, isn’t world beating. The Rays org is mostly well ranked because of the top end talent, not it’s depth.

If he was “talented enough to be a young and exciting 4th or 5th starter this season for most other teams” he’d likely be a top 100 prospect. He’s not even close. You apparently know too little about other orgs and their prospects.

His performance today is no indicator of what he is – awful wind, first outing, etc. But he did give up a dinger to Miguel Cairo. And don’t forget Rollins hit a ball off the RF wall the announcers said the wind knocked down. Still, he’s certainly better than that.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 1, 2009 1:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs