James Shields vs. John Smoltz At Age 26
Aside from being right handed and about 6'4, 220 lbs there aren't many similarities between James Shields and John Smoltz. Shields is predominately a fastball/changeup pitcher, while Smoltz has built a hall of fame resume on a fastball/slider combo. Smoltz is the harder thrower and even in his advanced age is still about 2 MPH better than Shields. So where is the comparison? While doing research for our guide, I stumbled across the comparison. If you look at the two during the season in which they were 26 years old, you'll see very similar results.
|
Age 26 |
Shields |
Smoltz |
|
FIP |
3.82 |
3.81 |
|
ERA |
3.56 |
3.62 |
|
K/9 |
6.7 |
7.68 |
|
BB/9 |
1.67 |
3.69 |
|
K/BB |
4 |
2.08 |
|
HR/9 |
1 |
0.85 |
|
Wins |
14 |
15 |
It's not as close as my Sonnanstine/Radke comparison, but for them to be this close at the same age is pretty good. The wins are pretty much the same, although we all know about the value of one's W-L record. The FIP's and ERA's are almost identical and the HR/9's are within 0.15. The biggest disparity is control and that happens to fall in Shields's favor. While Smoltz is almost a strikeout better per nine, Shields is a full two walks less per nine which gives him a 4:2 K/BB advantage. Since the age of 26. Smotlz been one of the games best pitchers including a CY Young award and an average FIP of 2.81 as a starter. While nobody expects Shields to be quite that good, it's nice to see that at the same age he was on par with one of the best pitchers of the last 20 years.
1 recs |
32 comments
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Comments
As a Braves fan also I like this.
Rec’d.
What is the service time compairson?
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Shields is a late bloomer. Smoltz was in his fifth full season while Shields was in his 3rd.
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 4, 2009 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Smoltz also reached the majors when he was 21.
That’s pretty impressive.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sounds like another FB/SL pitcher, but I can't remember his name....
by rglass44 on Feb 4, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he's the better one anyways.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
*if injury does not occur*
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd use him as a comp for this guy...
help me out. He’s also undersized, left-handed, and his original team regrets giving up on him. Hmmm
by rglass44 on Feb 4, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Some diminutive lefty that hulked up over this offseason I imagine
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 4, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"I don't work out, lol"
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 4, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks.
I linked this up over at talkingchop as I’m sure they’ll have comments.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One issue.
Where does Shields improve to become a a sub 3.5 or sub 3 FIP pitcher? He has seen a three-year decline in his HR-rate, but with his flyball tendencies how much further can he go? His K-rate dropped and his BB-rate increased, so if he returns those to 2007’s career best numbers let’s see where he’d be. With a HR/9 of .9 (.1 better than his best 1), a K/9 of 8 (slightly better than his career best), and a BB/9 of 1.5 (just under his career best), he would have had a FIP of 3.4. In my mind that’s a best case scenario. I just don’t see anyway his HR/9 or K/9 make big enough strides.
by rglass44 on Feb 4, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
To be fair, every Rays starter's K-rate dropped.
Collette pointed that out to me last week.
Seems like a philosophical change, whether it be Navarro or Hickey I don’t know,but you usually don’t see entire staffs drop in their K ratios.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could this go to
pitching in games that actually mattered? I’m sure in 06 & 07 Kaz was pitching to get as many K’s as possible.
It would be easy to fall into pitching/playing for individual statistics when you lose 90+ games.
Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like RJ/Collette said
It looks that if it was a change in approach and it seemed to work out well.
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 4, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a better explaination than it being a huge statistical fluke
by Erik Hahmann on Feb 4, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, the defense was much improved and I'm sure Hickey/Navarro were aware of that
So they could stratagize without having to worry about Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson not getting to ground balls.
by Erik Hahmann on Feb 4, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nearly across the board their Fastball usage increased
Me thinks our powers that be want these guys to throw less bendy stuff so they stick around through their contract at least. Pretty smart.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 4, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A less appealing comp., but take Shields's numbers from above and compare with
ERA 3.58
FIP 3.76
K/9 6.83
BB/9 1.61
K/BB 4.25
HR/9 1.10
and you get……..a 26 year old 21 game winner named Jose Lima

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 4, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Oh and Lima's ERA/FIP for the the following year? 6.65/6.12 and his K/BB dropped to 1.82.
So let’s hope my original comparision is the right one.
by Tommy Rancel on Feb 4, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lima stopped throwing bendy things
And started paying attention to pointy things.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Feb 4, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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