Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

James Shields vs. John Smoltz At Age 26

Aside from being right handed and about 6'4, 220 lbs there aren't many similarities between James Shields and John Smoltz. Shields is predominately a fastball/changeup pitcher, while Smoltz has built a hall of fame resume on a fastball/slider combo. Smoltz is the harder thrower and even in his advanced age is still about 2 MPH better than Shields. So where is the comparison? While doing research for our guide, I stumbled across the comparison. If you look at the two during the season in which they were 26 years old, you'll see very similar results.

Star-divide

Age 26

Shields

Smoltz

FIP

3.82

3.81

ERA

3.56

3.62

K/9

6.7

7.68

BB/9

1.67

3.69

K/BB

4

2.08

HR/9

1

0.85

Wins

14

15

It's not as close as my Sonnanstine/Radke comparison, but for them to be this close at the same age is pretty good. The wins are pretty much the same, although we all know about the value of one's W-L record. The FIP's and ERA's are almost identical and the HR/9's are within 0.15. The biggest disparity is control and that happens to fall in Shields's favor. While Smoltz is almost a strikeout better per nine, Shields is a full two walks less per nine which gives him a 4:2 K/BB advantage. Since the age of 26. Smotlz  been one of the games best pitchers including a CY Young award and an average FIP of 2.81 as a starter. While nobody expects Shields to be quite that good, it's nice to see that at the same age he was on par with one of the best pitchers of the last 20 years.

Comment 32 comments  |  1 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

As a Braves fan also I like this.

Rec’d.

What is the service time compairson?

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

Some diminutive lefty that hulked up over this offseason I imagine

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 4, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks.

I linked this up over at talkingchop as I’m sure they’ll have comments.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

One issue.

Where does Shields improve to become a a sub 3.5 or sub 3 FIP pitcher? He has seen a three-year decline in his HR-rate, but with his flyball tendencies how much further can he go? His K-rate dropped and his BB-rate increased, so if he returns those to 2007’s career best numbers let’s see where he’d be. With a HR/9 of .9 (.1 better than his best 1), a K/9 of 8 (slightly better than his career best), and a BB/9 of 1.5 (just under his career best), he would have had a FIP of 3.4. In my mind that’s a best case scenario. I just don’t see anyway his HR/9 or K/9 make big enough strides.

by rglass44 on Feb 4, 2009 11:41 AM EST reply actions  

To be fair, every Rays starter's K-rate dropped.

Collette pointed that out to me last week.

Seems like a philosophical change, whether it be Navarro or Hickey I don’t know,but you usually don’t see entire staffs drop in their K ratios.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Could this go to

pitching in games that actually mattered? I’m sure in 06 & 07 Kaz was pitching to get as many K’s as possible.

It would be easy to fall into pitching/playing for individual statistics when you lose 90+ games.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 4, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, the defense was much improved and I'm sure Hickey/Navarro were aware of that

So they could stratagize without having to worry about Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson not getting to ground balls.

by Erik Hahmann on Feb 4, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Nearly across the board their Fastball usage increased

Me thinks our powers that be want these guys to throw less bendy stuff so they stick around through their contract at least. Pretty smart.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 4, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions  

A less appealing comp., but take Shields's numbers from above and compare with

ERA 3.58
FIP 3.76
K/9 6.83
BB/9 1.61
K/BB 4.25
HR/9 1.10

and you get……..a 26 year old 21 game winner named Jose Lima

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 4, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

Lima stopped throwing bendy things

And started paying attention to pointy things.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 4, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

Please read our Community Guidelines.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Zobrist vs Pedroia vs Cano
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #31 Runoff
127992041_extra_large_small
Fantasy Baseball 2012

Recent FanPosts

Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #33
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #32
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #31
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30 (Again)
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30 Runoff
Small
Take A Moment To Rosterbate
Scaled_php_small
Rays Community Prospect #30
Cloudtree_small
Statistics Manager at ESPN (Job Opening)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

ESPN Chat with Matt Moore
Danny Clyburn: 1974-2012
Joe Maddon Town Hall Contest
Hickey said as of now all of the starters -- Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann,...
White Sox sign Dan Johnson
Indians acquire Canzler
Justin Ruggiano to Elect Free Agency
Dougdirt over at MinorLeagueBall compiled John Sickels' rankings with WAR values from Victor Wang's research.

Thread here.
The increasingly desperate search for offense has caused some teams to...
Zobrist wallpaper I made :]
Actual Link: http://i1207.photobucket.com/albums/bb472/lewiedesigns/Wallpapers/Zobristwallpaper.jpg

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

DRB Fantasy Baseball

Friends of the Site

DRB Suggestion Box

Drb4_medium


Managers

Slowsky__1__small Steve Slowinski

Dad_small Jason Collette

Brad_small BWoodrum

Price_small Erik Hahmann

Analysts

Lob-city_design_small rglass44

Untitled_small EminenceFront

Small Mulva

Rutg_uakjmedjwh9ndzd4lkll_small Imperialism32

100_1952_small MrNegative1

Steak-with-crown_small CBJones

Whelk_small Whelk

Small PGP

Scaled_php_small mr. maniac

Tampa_theatre_small jcmitchell

Me_small John Gregg