More Framework for a Matt Garza Extension

While working on the DRaybay Season Guide(coming soon if you haven't heard), I almost missed another young pitcher signing an extension with comparable numbers to our own Matt Garza. Last Friday, the Pirates locked up Paul Maholm to a 3 year deal worth $14.5 million dollars. There is an option year that could push the deal to 4 years, $24.25 million. Even further, there is a performance incentive that would max out the deal at 4 years $25.55 million.

A few differences before we get to the similarities. One, Maholm is left handed and there is always a premium on left handed pitching. Two, Garza will be a super 2 arbitration player meaning his service time will be less than that of Maholm's at time of first arbitration eligibility. Maholm has 96 career starts and just over 600 career innings. If we pencil in Garza for another 30 starts and 185 innings, he'll go into arbitration with 84 starts and 502.2 innings, so that will skew the numbers slightly. Maholm was also 26 for most of his arb-eligible season while Garza will be 25.

Now to the similarities in numbers. If you look at Marcels projections he has Garza putting up very similar numbers to 2008 and that's with a near 20 point increase in BABIP. Marcels has Garza's ERA jumping from 3.70 to 3.94, but his FIP lowering from 4.14 to 4.10 because of a slight increase in K/9 and a slight decrease in HR/9. So let's assume that Garza's 2008 will be pretty close to his 2009. If that is the case then we have a bench mark for a deal. Look at the numbers for each pitcher in 2008

2008 Garza  Maholm 
GS 30 31
FIP 4.14 4.15
ERA 3.7 3.71
K/9 6.24 6.06
BB/9 2.88 2.75
K/BB 2.17 2.21
HR/9 0.93 0.92

That is an amazing comparison. The biggest discrepancy is a 0.04 difference in K/BB ratio. Now we're assuming Garza is going to put up similar numbers in 2009 so he might have a better case to argue since this is Maholm's best season and Garza might have two of these seasons in his back pocket. Even if we go a little higher than Maholm's 4/$25.55 mill max contract or Ubaldo Jimenez's 6/$23.75 mil max, we have a pretty good idea of the framework for a Garza extension. Since the Dioner Navarro long-term negotiations have stalled, I think maybe the Matt Garza negotiations should start, and soon.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker