Top Pitching Prospects Evaluated

by rglass44 on Feb 8, 2009 9:15 PM EST Comment 25 comments

Around these parts there has been a lot of talk about our pitching depth in the big league and in the minors. Should we trade some depth next off-season, convert someone to a reliever, etc? The same day I read a Keith Law chat where he hit the nail on the head.

John (St. Pete): With Hellickson, Davis, Niemann, McGee, etc., etc., at what point will the Rays make moves to get something for those guys or make room for them? The big-league rotation is pretty well set and locked in for the near future.

Keith Law: That's downright cocky. Pitchers get hurt. They also can fail to develop, or just go backwards without any obvious explanation. And you don't think that a full-potential Davis is an upgrade over Sonnanstine?

John (St. Pete): Sure, a couple of those guys could replace Sonnanstine, but Shields, Kazmir and Price are signed and Garza isn't getting bumped out. Obviously McGee's already been hurt as well as Niemann, but there's going to come a breaking point even if a couple of guys don't pan out.

Keith Law: Kazmir is only signed through 2011, and not cheaply. And like I said, guys get hurt. I predict that the Rays do not reach said breaking point.

This is the issue. Pitchers get hurt or flame out. The same can befall prospects. With this in mind I compiled a list of all the pitchers that appeared in Baseball America's Top 100 prospects from 1996-2005. We will start by looking at all those that cracked the top 10.

This table lists the players, their rank, their IP as a starter and reliever, their FIP and their career WAR (so far).

Year	Rank	Name	Pos	Team	SIP	RIP	FIP	WAR
2002	1	Josh Beckett	rhp	Marlins	1184.6	4	3.61	24.92
2000	1	Rick Ankiel	lhp	Cardinals	225	17	4.38	2.82
2002	2	Mark Prior	rhp	Cubs	657		3.41	15.26
2005	2	Felix Hernandez	rhp	Mariners	666.3		3.7	13.33
1996	2	Paul Wilson	rhp	Mets	912	29.6	4.73	7.73
1997	3	Kerry Wood	rhp	Cubs	1116.6	102.6	3.79	22.02
2004	4	Edwin Jackson	rhp	Dodgers	414.3	41.6	4.92	2.48
2001	4	Jon Rauch	rhp	White Sox	47.6	293.3	4.05	2.23
1999	4	Bruce Chen	lhp	Braves	628	179	5.2	0.70
1997	4	Matt White	rhp	Devil Rays	0		0	0.00
2001	5	Ben Sheets	rhp	Brewers	1428		3.56	30.78
1999	5	Brad Penny	rhp	Diamondbacks	1457.3	3	3.95	25.12
1996	5	Alan Benes	rhp	Cardinals	426	68	4.47	4.90
2003	5	Jesse Foppert	rhp	Giants	117	5.3	5.27	0.25
2003	6	Jose Contreras	rhp	Yankees	931.6	20.3	4.4	11.41
2002	6	Juan Cruz	rhp	Cubs	196.3	318.6	4.13	4.30
2001	7	C.C. Sabathia	lhp	Indians	1659.3		3.62	34.66
2005	7	Scott Kazmir	lhp	Devil Rays	730	3	3.74	14.30
1998	7	Kris Benson	rhp	Pirates	1207.3		4.48	13.68
1999	7	Ryan Anderson	lhp	Mariners	0		0	0.00
1996	8	Livan Hernandez	rhp	Marlins	2528	3	4.44	29.78
2004	8	Greg Miller	lhp	Dodgers	0		0	0.00
1998	9	Carl Pavano	rhp	Expos	1057	26.3	4.21	15.24
2003	9	Gavin Floyd	rhp	Phillies	360.6	24.3	4.77	2.85
1999	10	Matt Clement	rhp	Padres	1410.6	2	4.24	19.75
2003	10	Francisco Rodriguez	rhp	Angels		451.6	2.84	8.33
2000	10	John Patterson	rhp	Diamondbacks	438	16.3	4.25	6.13

A quick run-down of the pitchers:

C.C. Sabathia	Arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
Ben Sheets	Utterly dominant when healthy. When healthy is the key.
Livan Hernandez	Kind of a joke these days, but once a very effective pitcher.
Brad Penny	Largely healthy, largely effective. One time 4 win pitcher, three time 3 win pitcher, and 1 time 2 win pitcher in 7 seasons.
Josh Beckett	In his 8 seasons, Beckett has proven to be one of the best starers in baseball. His great stuff, when on, is nearly unhittable; as evidenced by his frequent playoff heroics.
Kerry Wood	Dominant at the beginning then oft-injured. After a succesful campaign as a closer we'll see where it leads him.
Matt Clement	Solid starter with one great year, but a line-drive to the face seems to have done him in.
Mark Prior	Utterly dominant to start his career. We all know the rest.
Carl Pavano	Pitched 200 innings twice (effectively) before the yanks threw a ton of money at him to sit at home with Alissa Milano.
Scott Kazmir	YAY! Hopefully avoids injury bug.
Kris Benson	Hot wife. Decent starter.
Felix Hernandez	One of the most highly tauted young pitchers in the game today. He uses his electric stuff effectively and has been worth 14.1 wins before his 23rd birthday.
Jose Contreras	32 YO prospect number 6 prospect. The ageless wonder.
Francisco Rodriguez	One of the most dominant relievers in recent memory. Set the saves record last year and got paid.
Paul Wilson	Journeyman starter who has had a couple of successful years (one as a Devil Ray), but he never fulfilled his draft or prospect status.
John Patterson	Showed glimpses before injury derailed his career.
Alan Benes	One good season followed by injuries. 70 career starts, 115 games, 4.47 FIP.
Juan Cruz	Decent minor-league starter turned decent minor league reliever. Career FIP of 4.13 primarily as a reliever with a few spot-starts mixed in.
Gavin Floyd	Traded with Gio Gonzalez to the Phillies for Freddy Garcia. Finally started to make some strides this year in an Edwin Jackson sort of way.
Rick Ankiel	Ankiel is one of the stranger cases in recent memory. A pitcher with great stuff who had some success at the major league level, Ankiel could not find the strike-zone. In his career in the bigs he had 4.8 BB/9. He's now a big-league RF with some potential.
Edwin Jackson	No need to rehash this…
Jon Rauch	Never cut it as a starter. Has been a pretty good reliever, but he's only been worth more than a win once.
Bruce Chen	Another journeyman, although Chen only made more than 30 starts once. Swing-starter who rarely posted a FIP under 5.
Jesse Foppert	One bad year as a starter.
Matt White	Never threw a pitch in the bigs. Ugh.
Ryan Anderson	Check out the USS Mariner piece. He gets a few shout-outs. Never made a big-league pitch.
Greg Miller	Last year in AAA, he posted a 7.71 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in 53.5 relief innings. Injuries.

This chart shows the breakdown by WAR:

Top10pp_medium

As you can see, even among the top 10 pitching prospects very few turn out to be what is expected. It is as likely that they have 0 career WAR as becoming a star. Of the 26 prospects that reached the top 10, more recorded less than 5 WAR than recorded more than 15 WAR.

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Comments

I took those pitchers and found their average WAR/year

8 of the 27 averaged at least 2 wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2009 9:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over their career?

Ugh.

by rglass44 on Feb 8, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Based on your data.

I just did WAR/years.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

k

Ugh^2

by rglass44 on Feb 8, 2009 9:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fans are often too quick to assume

their team has a surplus that should be used to fill other holes. A few years ago many were writing that the Rays had to clear room in the outfield in order to build a pitching staff. It seemed we had so many outfielders that there was a glut. Hardly the case just 2 years later.

Now it is pitchers. No doubt if a good return is in place, the Rays can parlay pitching into other talent, but they cannot assume they ought to try to clear space for pitchers until there the actual problem exists. Right now, there is nobody blocking a clearly better talent, so unless the return is clearly necessary, there is no reason to deal.

For a case study, consider the Angels. At the start of the 2008 season, they had 6 definite major league starters plus a high profile prospect ready to contribute. Many assumed they would trade at least one, perhaps Santana who had had a poor 2007, to get some offense. Instead they traded for Garland. And now they have just 4 definite major leaguers, the prospect is more suspect now and they have to be a bit concerned even about the remaining starters.

by bobr on Feb 8, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'll just point out

that most of those guys who flamed out were ranked highly based on their performance in A+ or lower.

Yes, shit happens, but we already KNOW we’re going to be having problems on the other side of the ball in a few years. You don’t hoard pitching prospects just because something might happen.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2009 10:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Especially when the resources would better be reallocated elsewhere

both now AND in the future.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we know that at all.

And it is not hoarding prospects. It is developing them until we know how they best can help us. As the trade of Jackson indicates, the Rays will deal young pitching when it makes sense, but I cannot see them doing it as a kind of anticipation of being overstocked.

The only pitchers we know are major leaguers are Kazmir, Shields, Garza and Sonnanstine because they have each succeeded in at least one year. Every other prospect is just that, even Price. And of those four, Kazmir is an injury risk and only under our control until 2012. Garza threw a lot of innings last year and as much as I like Sonnanstine, he has just the one year of major league success.

Of those close to the majors, only 3 are high end prospects (Price, Davis and Helllickson), and only Price has any major league exposure. Both of the others have some question marks.

Naturally a team has to take risks by projecting success where it seems likely, but there is no need to make room for prospects when there is no urgency to do so.

by bobr on Feb 8, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a matter of value

Do we get more value out of holding on to all our pitching prospects just in case there are injuries/flameouts, or do we get more value out of them if we trade one or two to fill a weakness in the lineup?

Also in regards to “only 3 are high-end prospects”: So what? You don’t need to be a high-end prospect to become a productive(Sonnanstine) or even a very good(Shields) starting pitcher. There IS a breaking point. Assume hypothetically that our opening day rotation is based solely on talent(not taking into account development advantages of keeping Price in Durham) and is Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonny, Price. Our “B” rotation would be Niemann, Talbot, Davis, Hammel, and either Mason or Hellickson. Those 5 would probably give a few actual MLB rotations a run for their money. And then that’s not even counting guys like Rollins, McGee, and Houser, all who were at AA.

The point is that we have enough depth that trading one or even two of the top-end guys could be worth it(ie, Hellickson and Davis for some mythical great hitter that fills a need for us).

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Feb 9, 2009 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There may ultimately be a breaking point,

but it is not here now. There are all sorts of ways to manage an apparent surplus. Some, like Davis and Hellickson need more minor league time. Very possibly Price does too. And once deemed ready, they can become long relievers/spot starters to further advance their experience in the majors in the most optimum circumstances.

Naturally should a “mythical great hitter” be available the Rays can deal from strength. In fact, should a need arise for a fill-in to maintain ourselves in contention, the Rays could risk sending away a top talent to ensure their spot. I am simply saying that it is not urgent or even prudent to look to trade away pitching talent because we think we are flush. Offers need to be considered, and I am sure the front office is always looking to improve, but barring some remarkable possibility, we should be receiving those offers, not making them.

by bobr on Feb 9, 2009 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When there's an opportunity to improve the team both now and in the long term

And we say that certain pitching prospects are completely off limits, like we did last year, then I’d argue we’re hoarding pitching prospects.

No, we don’t KNOW what will happen in the future, but right now positional talent is what we need more, and it’s extraordinarily likely (I’d say over 99%) that over the course of the next 3 years, we’re going to need positional talent much more than we’ll need to fill spots in the rotation, even if guys get injured or traded. Just through the normal cycling of contracts, we will have holes in LF, RF, 2B and 1B in the next couple years.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 9, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus, if you're concerned that pitchers might flame out

Isn’t that a good argument for trading them NOW, while we know their values are still high?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 9, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The flip-side is to "saying guys are off limits"

is that people know you are willing to deal them for a sub-optimal package. If someone really wants Hellboy, and only him, they would be willing to overpay for a guy that is “off limits” vs. willing to give fair value for someone that is out there. If you can hose a team you do, but if you can’t hold on to the guys.

All these prospects are get out of jail free cards. If anyone goes out for an entire season then we can worry about spinning a guy for a replacement. I don’t think you make a move at this juncture because it is too early.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

While Law makes great points

I think we are in rare shape as far as pitching depth, and that breaking point WILL come.

Guys like Moore, Barnese and Lobstein werent even mentioned. Of course several players are far away still, and wont pan out, but I still believe that “breaking point” will come and it will be a positive thing for our organization (obviously).

As a rule, you never have too much pitching. We are going to be the exception to that rule

by Rays4242 on Feb 9, 2009 12:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It seems to me the point is

you don’t act too early.

There are no pressing needs, and prospect for prospect trades are fairly rare, so you’re not as likely to fix minors depth issues that way. Orgs seem to like holding their prospects to fill more immediate needs in the majors. If the prospects have the value you perceive, other orgs will likely want them when a need arises. Sure you don’t want to appear desperate, but think of all the “prospect for piece” trades you see. The trading deadline offers good opportunities – in both acquisition and divestiture markets.

The Rays are contenders now – surplus resources are best used to bolster the majors club. Sometimes bad deals result, particularly in hindsight. But isn’t the goal being competitive?

And your pitching depth might not be as rare as you think. We all have a tendency to think highly of our orgs prospects – not saying TB isn’t well situated, particularly at upper levels. But “rare shape” might be an overstatement.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 9, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"You don't act too early."

I think that is exactly the point.

by bobr on Feb 9, 2009 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Francisco Rodriguez - One of the most dominant relievers in recent memory. Set the saves record last year and got paid.

No.

by Sylar on Feb 9, 2009 1:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Are you crazy?

The guy has a career FIP of 2.84. He was down a bit last year, but he is still one of the best relievers of the last decade.

by rglass44 on Feb 9, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about the hitter?

We all know that injuries are more common with pitchers than hitters, but I would be interested in seeing if the WAR for ‘healthy’ pitchers vs ‘healthy’ hitters varies as much as we seem to believe.

by TheGrinch on Feb 9, 2009 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nice look Mr Glass

The picture was a bit worse than I’d thought, even though it’s a topic I’ve often considered.

Hard to imagine a fuller view will be much better. I’d suggest breaking out the top 25 before you go full bore through 100 – lots of names there!

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 9, 2009 8:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another thing strikes me

That so few pitchers were top 10 in last couple of years. Guess BA has gotten a bit gunshy of them.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 9, 2009 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the amount was a bit surprising to me as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2009 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, it doesn't include repeat offenders.

So we’d expect 50ish if it was an even split, and you lose maybe 10 that were lost for being there 2 or 3 times. That gets it to about 40. Then there’s the old TISNSTAPP issue.

by rglass44 on Feb 9, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course, I then

went back and looked at 2006 through 2008, and the number of pitchers rebounded.

6 of top 10 in 2008, 4 each in ‘07 and ’06. And few you could call busts, at least not yet, but then it’s wrong to call a guy a bust after 1 bad year. Closest thing might be Homer Bailey, top 10 in both ’07 and ’08 – but even then …

The most judgeable due to time passage of course, ’06, featured Liriano, Billingsley, Verlander, and Cain in top 10. Not nearly as bad as much of above.

But then, ’07 had Dice-K, Hughes, Bailey, and Andrew Miller. Jury still out on 3.

"08 featured Joba, Buchholz, Kershaw, F. Morales, Bailey, and Price. Only Price retains eligibility.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Feb 10, 2009 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs