2009 AL Preview: Baltimore Orioles

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 9, 2009 7:00 AM EST

Team Name: Baltimore Orioles

2008 W-L Record: 68-93

Place in division: 5th

2009 Projected Lineup
Player	Pos.
G. Zaun/M. Wieters	C
Aubrey Huff	1B
Brian Roberts	2B
Cesar Izturis	SS
Melvin Mora	3B
Felix Pie	LF
Adam Jones	CF
Nick Markakis	RF
Luke Scott	DH

Key Bench Players
Player	Pos.
Ty Wigginton	IF
Ryan Freel	UTL
Lou Montanez	OF

2009 Projected Rotation
Player	Pos.
Jeremy Guthrie	SP1
Koji Uehara	SP2
Mark Hendrickson	SP3
Rich Hill	SP4
R. Liz/C.Waters	SP5

Key Relievers
Player	Pos.
George Sherrill	Closer
Chris Ray	Setup
Jim Johnson	Setup
Jamie Walker	Specialist

2009 Outlook: With Red Sox, Yankees and the rise of the Rays in the AL East, the Orioles and the Blue Jays are almost forgotten teams. For the Orioles this is partly their own fault. The O's have not made the playoffs since Davey Johnson was the manager in 1997. They've finished in third place once, and would have been cellar dwellers nine times if it weren't for the "Devil Rays." In 2008 they finished last place in their division for the first time since 1988. The outlook for 2009 isn't that much better, but the team should be better.

On paper, the Orioles lineup is much improved. The Aubrey Huff/Ty Wigginton/Luke Scott platoon at 1B/DH is an upgrade over the Huff/Millar platoon. Brian Roberts, one of the second basemen in the league, will actually have a middle infield partner this year in Cesar Izturis instead of a Juan Castro/Alex Cintron/Freddie Bynum/Brandon Fahey/Luis Hernandez platoon (What were they thinking?). At catcher, Greg Zaun will keep the seat warm before all world prospect, Matt Wieters takes over and dominates for the next decade or so.

The O's will have one of the best defensive Outfields in the game, but probably second best in the division behind the Rays. Nick Markakis is already a stud and locked up for six years at least. Adam Jones is still developing, but still had an OPS over .700 in his first full year. Recently, they added former top prospect, Felix Pie, who at age 24 still has time to live up to the hype.

The problem for this Orioles team will be pitching and that is a big problem. They finished 2008 dead last in team FIP at 5.14. They will go into 2009 with one proven starter and....well one proven starter. Behind Guthrie will be a mix matched group that consists of a Japanese Import, another failed former Cubs top prospect, a former NBA power forward, and a few other young arms that haven't proved much in the majors. Their system has some good arms in it like Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta, but only Tillman has pitched above class A and Matusz didn't throw a professional pitch in 08. In the bullpen, Jim Johnson was the only reliever with an FIP under 4(3.38) and over 50 innings. They will get back Chris Ray and Danys Baez, but each are huge question marks coming off major surgeries.

The O's will be better in 2009, but given the fact that they play in baseball's best division, I'd say that they are looking at another fifth place finish.

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Comments

I am not so sure about 5th place.

They probably will not contend, but this is an up and coming team. Except at the infield corners, this should be an excellent defensive team which could make the pitchers slightly better than we expect. There is some offensive firepower with at least one consistently all-star quality player already and a second close by. And while the starting pitching looks really terrible, in Rich Hill they have a pretty decent chance of finding a solid or better pitcher.

Given the injury problems on the Blue Jays staff, there could be a tussle between the two teams to avoid last place.

by bobr on Feb 9, 2009 8:04 AM EST reply actions

Oh yes

And that is a pretty good bench as well.

by bobr on Feb 9, 2009 8:06 AM EST up reply actions

After what the Rays did last year, I'll never say never

but, even if Rich Hill turned out to be decent, they still have a ways a way in the rotation. Guthrie is decent, but even he has an avg FIP of 4.47 over the past 2 years. Uehara is unknown and we know about Hendrickson already. The others like Liz/Waters/Bass haven’t proven to be effective starters yet. Like I said I’ll never say never, but the Jays still have Halladay and that gives them an edge.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 9, 2009 8:39 AM EST up reply actions

Former NBA Power Forward haha

SIT THE FUCK DOWN!!!!!!

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2009 11:15 AM EST reply actions

look at that haircut...

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 9, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

Sherrill and Ray will compete for the closer job

And realistically, if Ray is healthy, he’ll most likely be the closer.

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/schmuck/2009/02/orioles_sherrills_new_deal.html

by PhilR8 on Feb 9, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions

That is a talented team.

Probably the best last place team in the league. Their starting rotation isn’t very good, but Tillman, Matusz and Arrieta are every bit as good as our 2, 3, 4 starting pitching prospects and I’d actually lean toward them being better. The Orioles are going to be really good soon rather than later.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Feb 9, 2009 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Yep, I was shocked at how much I liked their lineup.

The pitching is about a year or two away.

by Tommy Rancel on Feb 9, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Depends on how that outfield pans out

They at least have some high upside guys out there, but as well all know, there isn’t a 100% success rate. Also, by the time their pitching is ready to go, they’ll have a number of holes to fill in the infield.

They’re building a decent team, but assuming they don’t continue to make smart acquisitions (which is probably a bad assumption), they’re probably more like a .500 team in a few years than a playoff contender.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 9, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

Barring a rash of pitching prospect injuries, the O’s finally have some forward momentum with the farm and have made some interesting deals to build a very respectable lineup. Market differences aside, I think the O’s get my vote for “The Next Rays” award (no offense to RJ’s up-and-coming Pirates) with the results showing in a couple years.

by RATW on Feb 9, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

I could see that.

They’re both way better picks than most of these teams that are being compared to the Rays.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2009 5:07 PM EST up reply actions

Cough Royals cough

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Feb 9, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2009 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

The O's defense and lineup will both be substantially better.

Their bullpen is pretty good. That rotation is just a killer right now. I’m picking them ahead of the Jays, however, because the Jays are really imploding.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Feb 9, 2009 8:12 PM EST reply actions