For David Price, Change Is Good

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 11, 2009 10:01 AM EDT

Throughout this off season anytime David Price's name was mentioned there was usually a comment following about how he is great, but needs to continue developing his change-up. It's no secret that Price's third offering is behind his blazing fastball and his sharp biting slider. In fact, here is a breakdown of the 236 pitches Price threw for the Rays in the regular season:

Fastball: 162 times or 68.5%
Slider: 71 times or 30.2%
Change-up: 3 times or 1.3%

You can see the change-up was not something he went to often. While Price was able to get away with using two pitches for the Rays in 2008, most of his work came as a reliever where you can get away with two pitches or even in the case of Grant Balfour, one pitch. We recently learned that Price has aligned himself with changeup expert, James Shields and the results, at least in Price's first outing, seem to be very promising. According to Price's first hand account of yesterday's game, he was able to get a strikeout and induce a groundball using the change-up.

"I finally struck somebody out on a change-up; that was huge," Price said. "And it was a lefty, so that's even better. And I got a double-play ball out of one. So I'm proving not only to these guys but I'm proving to myself that I can throw a good change-up to a big-league hitter." ~ RaysReport

Price will most likely start the season working with Durham Pitching Coach and Rays Player Development Man of the Year, Xavier Hernandez. At some point or another, "X" has worked with most, if not all, of the Rays young pitchers. From James Shields, Andy Sonnantine to Jeff Niemann, Hernandez has had a helping handing in development. He even helped veteran Grant Balfour revive his career in 2008. Expect Price and Hernandez to be joined at the hip as he looks to mold Price into the "finished product" the Rays are seeking.

It will be interesting to see how much success Price can have going forward with the change-up. If he can mold it into a third plus pitch, he could seriously dominate for the next decade plus. However, right now the fact that he is already using the change to get outs and is gaining more confidence in the pitch is good enough. After all, we know that 90% of the game is half mental.

Photo by SRQman

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So the question is...

How long will this take?
A) not long, but they will keep him in Durham until past his super-two date anyway
B) it doesn’t matter, he comes up after his super-two date—changeup ready or not
C) he will be down there until it’s major league ready then he’s up—before or after super-two date
D) It all depends on rotation health/effectiveness, not his ‘third pitch’

by TheGrinch on Mar 11, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions

It all depends on if he is ML Ready

Of course once we get close to the Super 2 date things change quite a bit. We don’t want to be in the scenario where one or two extra Price starts ended up costing us millions.

by matthan on Mar 11, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

I suppose

Though I would think the equation for pitchers would be much different than field position players. I’m not even completely sold yet on the idea of extending Garza…though strangely, I do like the possibility of them spreading the risk by extending both.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 11, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

E) It depends on his third pitch and (maybe a little bit if it’s getting close to the deadline) the super-two date! I don’t think they Rays will bring him up if there is somebody hurt if they think his 3rd pitch is not there yet! There are other options out there (right now): The “loser” of Niemann/Hammel and then maybe C. Hernandez (or W. Davis if they think he is nearer to his ceiling)!

by BurGi on Mar 11, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions

F)

He’s spent enough time in Durham so that they don’t have to worry about him throwing too many pitches the rest of 2009 when he does come up.

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Mar 11, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think the Rays will bring him up if they don't feel he is 100% ready to stay.

Andrew Friedman has said multiple times “Development is King” and the Rays really don’t want to play around by calling him up and sending him down if he isn’t effective or if he wasn’t ready. I think the super 2 plays a role minor role in this, but I’d say option C is the most likely.

he will be down there until it’s major league ready then he’s up—before or after super-two date

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 11, 2009 11:20 AM EDT reply actions

How long would he have to stay down to avoid being super 2 eligible?

by rglass44 on Mar 11, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

I've thought about this a lot lately.

But how risky would a long-term deal be for Price on a scale of 1-100?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 11, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

Why?

He’s cheap for 3-4 years and still below market value for 6. Do you want to give a pitcher an 8 year deal?

by rglass44 on Mar 11, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Not especially.

However, let’s say they can get him below projected market value for those eight years, and that the last two seasons are a joint option. Would you consider it, given the risks of attrition and injury?

The catch is simply an increased salary up front and Price can ask for arbitration if he thinks he can make more than whatever it is he’s being paid.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 11, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

I imagine the joint option would be nullified pretty much regardless.

Either he’s hurt/ falls off a cliff or he will want more money.

For the first 6 years, what does he get? He’s due to earn a million a year untill arb. Looking at Hamels contract for guidelines, he got 3/20.5 for his final 3 arb. years. Price would be due around 25-30 million through the 6 years we’re looking (I think). Considering Price has already made close to 3 million (from his signing bonus and salary) and he should be in line for at least some endorsements, he definitely isn’t hurting for money.

What would it take to buy out those years? Is it worth it considering the financial situation the team is in now versus the long-haul? What’s the present value of 10 million dollars 5 years from now? Those are the issues I see. The Rays might be looking to build a new stadium and the economy will be in a lot different state by the time Price is finishing up his arb. years.

by rglass44 on Mar 11, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions