6 Man Rotation?
by JRays on Mar 11, 2009 3:25 PM EDT
29 comments
Ok so I know it sounds crazy but John Romano's column breifly mentioned the idea, before blowing it off, when discussing the David Price situation. So it got me to thinking what if they did go with a six man rotation? My first thought is that it kind of kills two birds with one stone. We have enought talent that we could easily put out 6 pitchers worthy of being major league starters. Additionally all of them are young so limiting thier innings would hopefully perserve them for down the road.
Now I have not done any calculations on how many less starts this equals per pitcher but I would imagine that it would roughly be somehwere between 5 to 7? If that is an average of six innings a start we are talking about 30 to 42 fewer innings during the year. I know one argument against would be time inbetween starts, but really is one day the difference between rust and fresh?
Long story short I don't think there is a chance this is going to happen but was just curious to see what everyone thought.
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No
It takes starts away from your best pitchers and replaces them with your worst.
by rglass44 on Mar 11, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If everyone stayed healthy you'd only get 27 starts from Shields, Kazmir, Garza etc.
I rather see those guys go 33-35 times if possible.
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 11, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
If you think you can let them throw 130 – 140 pitches because they’re only on once a week, a la Japan, then you probably get the same number of innings from your best pitchers and more innings from your sixth best pitcher.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Mar 11, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I remember correctly,
it doesn’t matter how much rest the pitcher gets after a start where they throw 110 or more pitches. They still carry significant injury risk.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Mar 12, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's somewhat true.
The issue is incomplete information. We don’t know what causes pitcher injuries, but we do have an idea about how to try to stimy them. Throwing a lot of high stress pitches is one thing that seems to contribute, but so does throwing a lot of pitches an inning. There are just so many factors it’s hard to determine what hurts and what doesn’t hurt that a team can control.
by rglass44 on Mar 12, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not necessarily the case
There isn’t enough data to make a statement to that effect, at least not at the pro level in the US. In Japan, guys throw 140+ pitches, but only pitch once a week. Their injury rates are no worse than they are in the US, probably a little lower even, though Japanese pitchers seem to lose their velocity at a younger age than their American counterparts. Still, we can’t make a good comparison there because the training regimens are just so different.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Mar 12, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention the differences in style of play.
Who knows what effects the playing style has on the pitcher’s stress levels while pitching. They also use different balls (not sure how that would effect but who knows), play primarily indoors, and are generally smaller. Who knows?
by rglass44 on Mar 12, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather go to a 4-man rotation that has the pitchers pitch less innings if anything.
That way your top 4 still get the lionshare of the IP, and there is little evidence that a 4 man rotation is harder on a pitcher than 5. Then Price and Niemann could be super-relievers (like Howell last year, but better).
by rglass44 on Mar 11, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jonak Keri wrote about this in Baseball: Between The Numbers,
He spoke about it here as well
The more starting pitchers you use, the more you’re exposing your lesser talent to important innings. Why give playing time to your sixth-best starter, when it’s bad enough you’re already going five deep? A four-man rotation could work, but it would probably work best for a team that had four highly efficient veteran starters
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 11, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Went back to the book. Keith Woolner actually wrote that chapter, but that quote is from Jonah.
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 11, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that actually is what I think makes it interesting for the rays
Is there really that big of a difference between our #1 and who ever would be #6. Yea on most clubs it would be foolish to even talk about but say you have Kaz or Shields as your #1 and then at the back you have Price or Nieman, is there much of a difference?
Again I don’t think of it as a real idea that should be implemented. The point was really to show how deep are starting pitching really is. Whoever would be the #5 and #6 would arguably have the stuff of a top of the rotation starter.
by JRays on Mar 12, 2009 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is there really that big of a difference between our #1 and who ever would be #6
Is that really true though? I mean Kaz (when healthy) is a sub-3.5 FIP guy, and Shields is around a 3.75 FIP guy. Do you expect that kind of contribution from Price et al? I certainly don’t.
This is why I’d move to the 4-man before the 6. You could get 40 starts each out of the top 4, and then have 2 of Price, Niemann, or Sonny out of the bullpen for over 100 IP. If they pitched 2-3 innings twice a week each they would be getting well over 100 innings in high-leverage situations.
by rglass44 on Mar 12, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get that they aren't on the same level
but I am stating thier isn’t the kind of drop off that one would associate normally and that is the basis of the quote above stating that you put more innings for your lesser talent.
by JRays on Mar 12, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you expect for Niemann/Price this year?
4 FIP? 4.5? 5? 3?
by rglass44 on Mar 12, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 4-4.5
Too lazy too look up career numbers, but Niemann was just over FIP of 4 last season and Price’s FIP of just over 3 was almost certainly inflated by pitching at lower levels throughout the year.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 12, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's as good or better than Garza.
I have a hard time believing Niemann is that good or that Price will be in his first full year.
Either way, if they are both 4.5 FIP pitchers and they get 300 combined innings in the top 4’s stead you are looking at a gain of 25 runs (300*(4.5-3.75)/9) or 2.5 wins.
by rglass44 on Mar 12, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who's to say that they can't be better than Garza?
He’s a known commodity, but he wasn’t stellar until late last season. There’s a decent chance that Niemann can match his production and a VERY good chance that Price will outdo it.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 12, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could be wrong
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 14, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more starting pitchers you use, the more you’re exposing your lesser talent to important innings.
but, with the rays, is a six-man rotation exposing lesser talent if we throw in Davis or Niemann?
by walkoffwalk on Mar 12, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No thanks
Price for the #5, Niemann for closer
…..No, I will not stop supporting this.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Mar 11, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I took a look at this a little while ago
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/11/9/657279/6-man-rotation
Something that came up was using Niemann/Price situationally against lefty heavy or righty-heavy lineups, and having the other pitch in relief one day on their week off. It could get complicated, but I think that could be the best solution. I don’t think it’ll happen, but it’s a decent idea.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 11, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Any idea that involves Price being a bullpen arm is an idea I hate
I realize he can be a stud closer, maybe the next Papelbon in that role, however, on this staff, loaded with talent, he has more than enough talent to be the ace real soon. In 2010, he will be no higher than #4(unless there are injuries) but he could be their best SP already by then.
I would love to see Niemann bring the heat as a closer, and might of had a chance when/if Percy goes on the DL but now Izzy will just take over.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on Mar 11, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not talking about his stuff, it's never been about his stuff
He simply cannot pitch 200 innings this season. There is NO WAY. It’s about getting him on the field as much as possible and getting him his innings in St. Pete instead of Durham.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 11, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally Academic.
It’s pretty clear that the org. only wants David working as a starter this year, so obviously he starts the year in Durham. It is so obvious that the Rays need to showcase Niemann and Hammel, and as staple said- he’s only going to get about 140 innings at the big league level.
by Thejeffg on Mar 13, 2009 2:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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