So, Jason Hammel Might Be The Rays Fifth Starter

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2009 2:43 PM EDT

Jeff Niemann, who pitched just two innings out of the pen Saturday, isn’t slated to make another start this week.

Tampa Tribune

People are going to make a big deal about this, but really it's not. Why is not, because, it's just not. Take a piece of paper and write down your following predictions:

A) How many starts until Price is ready.

B) How many runs better (per nine) is Niemann better than Hammel?

Okay, I get something like 5-10 starts, and Niemann is about a half run better per nine than Hammel. So we're talking a ~4.5 starter versus a ~5 starter. Feel free to adjust those two numbers as you see fit.

If you simply do non-leveraged runs saved versus replacement, here are your results:

IP	25	35	45	55	65	75
Niemann	2.8	3.9	5	6.1	7.2	8.3
Hammel	1.4	1.9	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.2

So even with 75 innings, we're talking a difference of less than half of a win. Obviously Niemann could be better than a 4.5 type, and Hammel could be better than 5. If you feel I'm under or overrating either of them, simply adjust the numbers as you see fit by plugging your numbers into this formula:

(5.5 - Pitcher's Run Average) * (Innings Pitched/9)

I understand why people are going to be disappointed with Hammel starting. His performances last year were at times quite trying and tedious, but odds are he's not as bad as his numbers show. Maybe he's an organizational whore who just has to know when he's going into ballgames and suffered because of it. I don't know.

The only part of this that concerns me is Niemann potentially pigeonholed as a reliever without ever receiving a chance at starting. I do not know if he's better than Sonnanstine, and there's little chance he would replace Kazmir, Shields, or Garza. Throw in David Price -- who almost certainly will not be down all season -- and Niemann's best chance of sticking on this team for the long haul is becoming a reliever.

Niemann's injury history almost certainly has to be taken into account as well. Throw in a potential trade value boost for Hammel and there's enough perks about this move to cause the sting to subside.

Plus, if nothing else, the Rays are gaining a damn good reliever. Niemann's fastball is going to gain a few ticks in relief. His fastball/curve combo is going to look sexy in short stints. Let's put the over/under on Niemann's relief FIP at 3.5 and his season ending pLI at 1.

Now, watch the Rays put Niemann in the rotation and make all of which I wrote go to hell.

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Comments

My only concern with this is trade value

I don’t think it hurts the rays in terms of W/L this year, but now if we trade Neimann we will get a bit less for him IMO.

by matthan on Mar 15, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

If we're doing this, then we're not trading Niemann.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 15, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Fwiw, Hammel is starting Wednesday.

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 15, 2009 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

OT but James Shields is starting a Minor League game on Tuesday

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 15, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

to keep him on schedule

by Raymondo on Mar 15, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you really think 5 - 10 runs doesn't make a difference?

Of course it does, and it’s worth arguing over, plus I’m not convinced that there’s only a .5 run difference per 9 between the two.

Funny though, that now that this seems to be happening, you’re making a lot of the arguments in support of it that I was making 6 months ago and you were lambasting me for.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 15, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

Do you really think either of them get 75 innings starting?

Also how big of a difference are you thinking? That’s a pretty important part that you’re leaving out.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

It doesn't matter

When the expected gap between us and first place is expected to be less than 4 wins, a half win can be a HUGE deal. I would expect Niemann to be a full run better per 9 than Hamme though, when looking at fielding independent stats.

Plus, if the rationale is that they like Niemann in the pen, then it does become valid to look at the difference between Hammel and Price. Especially when Hammel would probably be picking up the slack innings early in the year when they try to limit Price to an 80 PC.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 15, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

We're not talking about a half win.

And yes it does matter, even if Hammel is a full run worse than Niemann — which either means you think Niemann is closer to a 4 FIP pitcher or that Hammel is replacement level — it’s going to take more than ~30-40 innings to get close to a half of a win.

I would assume Price is going to be around a 4.3-4.5 FIP as well.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Give me your projected FIPs and I'll run the numbers for you.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

It's distinctly possible Hammel will be better than Niemann too.

The latter is all projection, the former has a majors track record. Hammel was pitching comparably to Neimann when both were in AAA. Let’s see how it plays out.

Plus it’s only 6 weeks likely anyway.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 16, 2009 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I understand the reasoning behind the decision

If they are high on Niemann in the bullpen, they may as well get him acquainted with the role.

But I am still skeptical of whether Hammel really has any value to the organization, other than as a placeholder, and really hope a trade is in the works (even if its just for a ’project’). With Davis being Rule 5 eligible soon, and Niemann out of options, it would take a lot of things going wrong for him to still be on the team by the end of the season.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 15, 2009 4:43 PM EDT reply actions

Davis is on the 40-man roster, he's no longer eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

The only thing to worry about with him now is options, but that shouldn’t be an issue.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 15, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with this

If they are high on Niemann in the bullpen, they may as well get him acquainted with the role.

It doesn’t matter who the fifth starter for April/May is, Price will be up soon enough. I rather Niemann get comfortable with his role and get a routine down instead of bouncing back and forth.

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 15, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions