Well, a lot of the posts and comments in the next couple of days are going to focus on the likes of Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel, two Rays organization RHP who are out of options. Niemann has not had much time in the majors whereas Hammel has served time as both a starter and as a reliever, mediocre at best in both cases. We do have a jogjam at SP, but that doesn't mean we have to trade away either of those two guys for chump change. Hammel is a serviceble #5 type who will give you GB outs and an acceptable number of strikesouts at about 4.8-5.0 FIP. Niemann, on the other hand, is a projectible righty who has seen success, albeit not wild success, in all levels of the minor leagues. You have to be a little bit excited about Niemann, watching him throw from such a great arm slot and at that height. I believe he has #3 - #4 starter potential in the major leagues, and I think his upside is deecentl. Either way, we shouldn't have to DFA these guys, and really, everybody in baseball knows this. So, why trade away a valuable part of your farm system for a Jason Hammel type when you know he's going on waivers anyway?

This is a real problem for the Rays and one that they will need to find a creative way to solve. One way is to keep Hammel and Niemann on the 25-man roster, which is certainly a possibility given that David Price still has tons of options and only a few starts above the AAA level. In a good case scenario, Hammel works as a servicible reliever and Niemann gets to start from the #5 spot. Perhaps Joe will switch it around and spot-start Hammel for Niemann if necessary. I think this good-case scenario sees Hammel working around a 4.2 FIP clip in 23 innings and Niemann working around a 4.0 FIP clip over, say, 77 innings. If David Price is ready, by that time we will either have an injury on our own staff (cough Garza cough) and we very well may need the services of Price anyway. If Price strugles in AAA, we could see Davis or Talbot get a shot as well. But, even if we are lucky and healthy, somebody else in baseball will finally break down from roids or Cialis and the result will be a need for a good SP who is proven, young, strikes people out - Oh wait, maybe that will be Jeff Niemann! With his slider and his frame, you have to like his chances as a good starter in the majors. Hammel could also be trade bait - I don't think he mentally understands the game well enough to ever succeed in any role.. He is a thrower, not a pitcher.

But, let's say (and God forbid this happens) that Niemann absolutely dominates and the rest of the rotation is solid. Now, we have a great trade chip (and believe me, Niemann has the stuff to get lucky and go on a 5 game, 2 ER or less streak because he can bring it) and you know some idiot GM is going to overvalue Niemann and trade for him. Then we can pick up an offensive piece that we need, such as a true long-term solution at RF, C (I'm not a Navi fan), 1B after Pena, SS, or maybe some low-level prospects. EIther way, we'll get some value for a guy who really didn't have enough innings to prove himself.

Finally, the worst-case scenario:: Hammel and/or NIemann blow. This is possible and with Hammel it may be probable. Hammel is a bit too hittable for the major leagues and Niemann can get ahead of himself on the mound sometimes, so they dould hvae poor years. So what? We trade them for nothing, use them as mop-up guys, or DFA them - chances are that if Hammel was DFA'ed at that point, nobody would pick him uo, Niemann, on the other hand, would be history.

Now, what about Price? Yes, I've met the guy in person, and I'll just say that if you know what 420 means then he's chill as fuck. But anyway, he told me that he didn't expect to make it out of camp this year no matter what, that Andrew Friedman explained to him that "even though you are clearly the be option at the 5 to win games now, you are not the best option there to win the most total games for us in the next six years." In other words, it hurts the team and Price when they lose trade value just because guys happen to be out of options. Price also does need work on his changeup; I've seen it in person, it is an elite-lvel high-school quality pitch. It will be crushed by the Pujols and the Ramirezes of the world.

Finally, here's my rant about trade value. People always pose stupid ass questions on ESPN like "Would you trade Albert Pujols for ARod?" or "Would you rather have Evan Longoria or Chipper Jones?" that in terms of actual baseball business have no meanings. Let me give everybody here who doesn't know (or maybe isn't clear) an idea of what trade value is:

Trade Value = Projected value wins (in dollars) over time of control - Cost over entire time of control.

For  example, A-Rod has very limited trade value. Many (including myself) would say that A-Rod has a negative trade value, and that is because the market for players and the value of wins is declining as the economy tanks. So, if you thought that a win was worth, say, $8 million dollars, you may pay A-Rod $300 million over 10 yearsif you expect to break even at 37.5 wins, or a 3.75 win-per-year clip, which is reasonable but certainly not earth-shattering. On the other hand, given all of the negative publicity on the A-Rod divorce, contract, steroids, Jeter, etc., his trade value is actually most likely NEGATIVE right now. Think of it as an investment. Maybe you bought Microsoft when it was worth $100 a share, then it dips to $75 a share. Either way, it's YOUR liability and thus nobody really wants A-Rod at that rate and for that period of time.

On the other hand, players who are still in pre-arbitration years are pretty valuable considering you can basically dictate their salaries to them like Mousillini to the Italians for the first three (or ocasionally, two) years of their MLB existance. So, these players have EXTREMELY HIGH VALUE

BJ Upton is soon going to be arbitration eligible and he is already indicating a preference for "year-to-year" negotiations. How will the Rays ownership afford the enormous price tag placed on him by the same committee that gave a poor defensive first baseman who struck out 200 times multiple seasons $8 million in his first year of arb? Point is, if BJ has the 300/400/550 season with 30+ SB that we all know he is perfectly capable of doing, we're looking at a guy who may want $10 M in first year arb! Let's not even talk about 2nd and 3rd arb, because that's just nasty.

So, if he has that monster season, look for the Rays to trade him after the season. I know, I love BJ and he is a great asset to this team, but he's pricey! He would command an enormous return in ML-ready talent and good lower level prospects to refill the Rays depleted system for 2012 and beyond, which is lacking that kind of hitting talent that a good system desperately needs. If we continue winning, our free agent spending and trade moves will become even more relveant as our draft position gets worse and worse. Let's say we get Taylor Teagarden, plus tons of good lower level prospects and/or Ian Kinsler, from the Texas Rangers for BJ. Here, we have a guy who will probably not have as great of numbers as from last year, but is a clear and present danger at the plate compared to our current catcher, We upgrade at a premium position this way but we do lose a + center fielder. Luckily, there are many great defensive fielders out there who can't hit and will play for the league minimum. Oh yeah! Navarro, right? What about him? We trade him away for help at short. My proposal: Navarro and Jake McGee for Troy Tut.

Thoughts?