Is Marc Tompkin taking shots at DRaysBay?
First Guess, yep.
12 months ago
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Na, It's not specifically DRB
DRB wasn’t alone in the Bartlett MVP thing. FJM, Big League Stew and the greatest sports writer alive, Joe Posnanski all felt the same and he lists them in his article.
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 19, 2009 8:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your numbers can't measure grit or heart.
Or swavor.
by ReasonableDoubt on Mar 19, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He does have something of a problem
He STILL wouldn’t be bringing it up to justify himself. He has the pulpit to have the last word on this, and obviously, he has the St. Petersburg Times’ support on this. He was attacked unmercifully, yes I admit I was one of them. Problem is with the Bartlett argument, you could apply that argument to Shields, Howell, Pena and Longoria AT LEAST. I know how good of a baserunner Bartlett is, he did miss time last year, but I say he is nothing more than a solid complementary piece. Not an insult to Bartlett, because without him, they wouldn’t be there, BUT the same would have been true to those 4 other players too.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 19, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me play devil's advocate here
I still think of the idea of an MVP as the player who would impact his team the most if he were missing. I know that this can be statistically measured with VORP, and it does help, but I’m still using statistics to complement my observations, not to form them completely.
One of the funny things that happened last year is that we got a chance to look at the team in a case where a regular backup was playing for an extended period of time for every position except LF and CF. All of the other positional players at one point or another missed a chunk of time.
Now the Rays were lucky, and this may be part of the reason why my point of view was eschewed, but Willy Aybar obviously is an excellent bench player capable of backing up 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. When Pena, Aki and Longo all went down during their points of the season, Aybar stepped in and did an impressive job holding the fort.
Unfortunately, when Bartlett went down, we got a taste of Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac playing the position. Between Zob’s worthless range and Brignac’s dead bat, this team certainly appeared at their worst visually when Bartlett was out of the lineup. In my eyes, this would be the case for voting Bartlett for MVP; because last year the team really didn’t have much to offer behind him at SS.
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
See there?
I think he DID completely form his observations from the statistical analysis. Just leads me to believe he had ulterior motives in the selection. Your devil’s advocate play is solid, but again, you can say that about at least 4 other players, and 2 of them had higher offensive stat outputs than Bartlett.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 19, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Respond on your subthread.
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if you give Bartlett, say, 10 to 15 runs because his backups were awful
(and that’s too much), he doesn’t catch Pena, Longo, or Upton…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 20, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you missed the part about where I said that I use statistics to complement what my eyes see to form my opinion.
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by kericr on Mar 20, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was addressing the backups issue, not you specifically.
I’m intrigued, though, what sort of process (either intentional or not) to take observations and turn them into your opinion of value? I mean, it’s possible to be totally subjective (ignore the data) and still come up with numerical measurements to be combined into a wins above replacement calculation. I don’t think that’s what you mean or what most people do, though (maybe a bit with fielding).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 21, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh no, that's not what I mean at all.
Like I said at the start, I was playing devil’s advocate; I don’t really form my opinions like I said above, I’m just playing someone who does. Usually I’ll form an opinion, then use stats to confirm what I’m seeing before presenting or defending it. On rare occasions I’ll ignore the stats (like with Perci closing last year after his injuries), but when I do ignore them, usually I won’t debate too much the merit of my position.
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by kericr on Mar 21, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha.
Generally, though, what do we think influences people to make their subjective opinions?
For fielding, it’s likely flair. For hitting, it’s actually probably the stats (but the traditional ones) with more attention paid to big events. People remember big things more than they do a lot of little things. For pitching, it’s, what, results? Winning and losing?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 21, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This isn't Topkin's job
He really needs to watch the fine line between offering an opinion and being a statistician to try to “sell” facts to create an argument. When he does that, he is no longer a beat writer, but more of a columnist. My problem with Marc is obviously myself and others apparently got to him, and 6 months later, he still feels he needs to justify himself. I don’t think of Bartlett as an all-around player, but rather a good above-average player. He is by no means the team’s anchor player. Sure that isn’t the criteria for MVP, but how many times does a Mo Vaughn get an MVP when they aren’t justified.
I give Topkin credit for giving his BBWAA vote for Bartlett for AL MVP, but his SOLE vote obviously means he missed the boat, as his other peers didn’t see Bartlett in the same breath, at least league wide.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 19, 2009 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I found it odd that he decided to wait this long to address it too
But the rest of your point isn’t very good. He’s getting criticism from a bunch of sabermetrians who rely primarily on statistics in order to prove his point, and he is responding to those arguments and detractors using the tools they rely on most. If he came back and brought an argument about heart, hustle, and grit, the people who he’s making the argument to (us) would laugh his ass right off the newspaper page.
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think using W-L record with and without a player is any better than saying Bartlett's value is unmeasurable.
Surely he’s not naive enough to believe Bartlett (or Zobrist, or Brignac) are the sole reasons the Rays won or lost those games.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's an exaggeration of what I said.
I’m not arguing W-L records, I merely said that the team ‘looked’ worse without Bartlett then with him.
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*and that the falloff was much greater without him then with any other player in the lineup
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm willing to accept that to the BBWAA chapters MVP isn't the most valuable player on a team.
But goodness, how about a little bit of consistency? Either use stats or don’t, either say it’s the best player on a winning team or don’t. Changing the guidelines every 12 months to make for better print absolutely devalues any honor or respect the award has. Gerald Williams was once team MVP, this is clearly a prestigous thing, don’t ruin it with ambiguous rubrics.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But...Williams knocked out Pedro!
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Topkin placed his analysis solely on statistics
I just don’t. I don’t think someone who isn’t a stathead can fall in love with such stats so much that they’d place their vote solely on them. He had to have some of that gritty heartish hustle-y feelings about it too.
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue that Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, or B.J. Upton all brought similar stories.
- Pena is the guy nobody wanted, big heart, everyone loves the guy.
- Longoria the hotshot rookie, everyone loves the guy.
- Upton overcame self inflected adversity, former top prospect who changed positions, played with torn labrum.
I guess gritty just means look like Adam Kennedy.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that's true.
At this point, I can’t come up with a good counterpoint to this. The only argument I could see being presented is:
- Didn’t Pena win MVP last year?
- Longo’s a rookie and can never be considered for team awards. He can’t be MVP because he doesn’t have ‘experience’
- Upton is too lazy to accept an MVP award
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by kericr on Mar 19, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not talking about what you said.
I’m fine if he doesn’t understand Win Values or wOBA or UZR or whatever else. I expect that. I’m not fine when someone uses poor stats and passes them off as valuable.
Yes, the players behind Bartlett were poor, does that mean Bartlett is more valuable? I guess you can make that case, I just cringe if, say, the New York media votes Cody Ransom MVP because the team goes 20-5 with him, and 80-57 without.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 19, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not just sabermetricians
But casual fans as well as fans who watch the team night in and night on and simply “feel” he wasn’t the best qualified choice.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 19, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is pointless.
Unless he wants to enter a legitimate discussion as opposed to merely getting quotes from a manager supporting his own players or taking potshots at “statheads” and “bloggers” and our lack of understanding of the true meaning of the game of baseball. It’s plain and simple yellow journalism, hero worship at its finest.
Let’s look at this through the eys of statistics and see where we are.
Bartlett was worth 1.8 wins last year. The Rays won 97 games last year. Using the WAR method, they “should” have won 93. So that leaves 4 wins floating around that we can attribute to luck, grit, hustle, statistical error, chemistry, coaching, etc. If you attribute all 4 of those wins to only Bartlett, then you can credit him with being worth 5.8 wins. That narrowly edges out Longoria at 5.3 wins. Color me skeptical.
by rglass44 on Mar 19, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again my point
Topkin is trying to play both ends against the middle here. This point has nothing to do with Jason Bartlett, the man or the player, but Marc Topkin the so called “yellow” journalist who deliberately waited 6 months to address his naysayers and use his influence to justify what is in the end an OPINION and not a fact. You can argue with WAR and VORP, and the numbers do point out to the fact Bartlett was indeed an important contributing factor. HOWEVER, Bartlett was not THE reason, let alone the MAIN reason for the Rays’ success. To me, I think the MVP either pitches the biggest games of the year and gets critical wins, or a solid reliever (J.P. Howell) who came on and CONSISTENTLY got out of jams and inherited runners last year. OR, it can be someone who got RISP hits or played well at the dish in the clutch, getting knocks and putting his team over the top.
Getting the quote from Joe Maddon by Topkin was nothing short of pandering, plain and simple. I agree that the way Topkin discussed this was by no means legitimate and nothing but a way to sell himself, which is disgraceful. If he wants to talk about it, go on talk radio and do a freakin’ segment where he has to defend himself if he feels the way he does. If he doesn’t understand why there is sentiment against his OPINION, then he truly is narrow-minded. Stick to the beat writing and not to the analysis!
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 19, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some thoughts on this issue.
1. I did not agree with the selection of Bartlett as MVP, nor do I now, but I think it is defensible, particularly from a beat writer, for reasons I have reviewed many times in the past. Summarizing, if the argument is legitimate that the Rays’ improvement was largely due to defense and the bullpen, and that there was no one player who clearly was a dominant force, Bartlett as shortstop (rather than Harris or Wilson et al) could represent the defensive upgrade as well as anyone. The very point that one can identify at least 4 other candidates who have equal (to each other) claim to the title makes the selection of a representative figure from the defense reasonable. I also think Topkin’s access to the clubhouse played a role in this thinking, and while as I note below, that is not always relevant, it is not necessarily to be dismissed out of hand either. There are other arguments as well, but enough of that for now.
2. I do not think Topkin waited until now to answer his critics (He actually did so at the time anyway), nor do I think he was influenced by pique at individuals criticizing him. That is arrogating a lot of importance to oneself with little support for such a claim. Rather, he has been featuring various players during the spring, and coming to Bartlett, it makes sense to review the argument over his MVP award. As for his mixing commentary with reporting, there is nothing inherently wrong with that; he is in no way violating journalistic norms. Calling him names (“yellow journalist” or using extreme language (“pandering”, "disgraceful"), intimating ulterior motives and engaging in indirect character assassination is foolish, suggests a vendetta and calls the reliability of the writer into question.
3. I was disappointed in the article for a few reasons. I don’t like the phrase “stat-possessed critics” because it suggests silly cliches about progressive analysts such as that they do not value or recognize “intangibles” at all. I also do not like the point about winning % while Bartlett was out; it is a silly argument even if he does not do more than point it out. And I think the mixing of meaningful and meaningless stats is the bane of mainstream journalists. As is nearly always the case, they will base their arguments on non-stat factors and then adduce all sorts of irrelevant and random data to support their claims. In that, Topkin seems no better (but also no worse) than the general run of journalists. Of course the reliance on cliches about numbers not being important (and then using the wrong ones) and doing the little things to win are merely tiresome. Not necessarily totally invalid, but not particularly enlightening either. I think Sheehan wrote a terrific article about why interviewing players and managers about what makes them valuable is ordinarily fruitless.
4. On a side note, as much as I admire Posnanski, his article about the selection of Bartlett was one of the worst he ever wrote, in fact a downright poor post exhibiting none of his usual broad mindedness and effort to examine an issue in the round. Indeed, he wrote 3 articles or comments on the Rays last year that were ill-informed and narrow. In one, he evidently did not know that Raymond was female (hardly significant, but an error nonetheless in the context of his point). In the other, he criticized the nickname “Big Game James” without knowing how or why Shields acquired that honor, and his arguments against it were petty and narrow. I truly respect Posnanski and read him every day, but was disappointed in his attack on the selection of Bartlett, an attack more worthy of FJM at its snarkiest than of him.
5. For all my criticism of Topkin’s logic and use of data, I think it might be more reasonable to consider the positives in the article than the negatives. He addresses the stats without mocking them and defines (well, identifies) VORP. He cites both BP and Stats, Inc. as sources. He presents the “detractors” without negative comment. While he mixes useful and less useful stats, he does include less traditional (if by now superceded) ones. I suppose you might say he is doing harm in confusing readers as to what is important to consider, but to me he is introducing the general public to stats and even ways of thinking not ordinarily found in mainstream articles. That is a huge step, and if you were in the company I keep (not all of it old), you might be far more grateful to anyone who helps legitimize approaches to analysis, however slight or sketchily, to a public that remains by and large insulated from it. The very presence of VORP and Posnanski’s excerpt may raise questions and open doors that can smooth the transition to acceptance of progressive analysis.
On balance, as much as I disagree both with the opinion and how Topkin arrived at it, I think the article has a great deal to recommend it, and judged by the standards of mainstream journalism rather than those of progressive analysts, is actually quite excellent. Whether rgglass is right or not (and I think he makes excellent points in the last paragraph) that sort of analysis is not going to appear in most newspapers, nor could the general public make much sense of it.
by bobr on Mar 20, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A few points:
1. Could not agree more, and I defended this justification of his pick more than once.
2. I was the one who used “yellow journalism” because I felt that that’s what this was. To me, “yellow jounalism” in sports is the pandering of the ideals that athletes are great because of their “make-up,” their heroic qualities, etc. while largely dismissing the tangible. You picked up on this I believe in part 3 where you stated “they base their arguments on non-stat factors and then adduce all sorts of irrelevant and random data to support their claims.” Essentially, he dismissed the meaningful, the true, the even-handed to revel in the sensationalist. Granted he wasn’t doing so to incite any sort of response other than intrigue. The mainstream reader (those that get their baseball news from the local paper primarily) will be more apt to appreciate the seeming balance but heavy reliance on the unmeasurable, the fantastic, or the exagerrations of insignificant details. That was what I meant, and I meant it about this affair only as I have no long standing issue with his general work.
3. This, as I mention above, is the crux with the whole issue. He parades around in the cloak of the statless, but uses bad statistics to bolster his argument. You nailed it so I’ll leave it at that.
4. Couldn’t agree more with both sentiments here. I felt Pos was pretty irresponsible in his assessment.
5. Agree that it is nice to see a mainstream journalist use these statistics (maybe I’ll finally get my parents to recognize them which is doubtful), but he dismisses their importance. Granted it isn’t as bad as the treatment Boswell gives them here (arguably the worst piece I have ever seen written about baseball), but it is still pretty dismissive and confounding.
On the whole I agree that we may be being a bit rough on the choice, and his response to critics. It is a seeming step in the right direction as his mentioning of blogs, progressive analysis, etc. legitamizes it, but I guess it’s the old “two steps forward one step back” sort of thing. I just think the choice in itself is the anti-analytical, anti-“new age” pick that is made solely for that reason. The MVP used to always be the best players (or at least best using the information they had at the time), and now it seems to be that the mainstream has come no further in the last 20 years and actively fights progress.
by rglass44 on Mar 20, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me clarify one point.
In 2, I neglected to add that one thing that keeps the “old guard” relevant is their access and their ability to “put you there.” Citing statistics can be done by anyone, and thus they rely on what keeps them relevant.
by rglass44 on Mar 20, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strange,
because I was not referring to your use of “yellow journalism” but to the following post that used the phrase, although I do disagree with both your definition and use of the phrase as well. I don’t think it means anything like pandering to particular viewpoints but rather is an effort to sensationalize the news in order to influence readers through emotion. While we may not consider Topkin’s arguments tightly argued, and may think he is using cliched types of thinking, I don’t think any of it is dishonest nor do I think it has any ulterior motive. I don’t even think it is pandering, which suggests intentional appeals to what you know are unworthy attitudes. ESPN’s lame efforts at locker room humor pander. What Topkin is doing is simply addressing an issue in a traditional manner.
I do not think Topkin dismisses the importance of stats, although I do think he misuses them. Rather, I think he is reasonably even handed in presenting them and allowing the reader to consider them. Notice that in the sidebar he presents the detractors arguments without direct comment, which I think represents respect for that approach to the question.
I agree with you, and also with R.J., that like most mainstream journalists, he does not understand the proper use of statistics in baseball arguments, or at least is not willing to use them in a disciplined way. (I think he is very intelligent and were he committed to incorporating them fully in his thinking would be able to do so well enough. But as far as I can tell, he remains committed to more traditional ways of looking at the game. I do not think that is necessarily wrong, although it is frustrating to read what appears a bastardization of sabermetric thinking.)
As for the choice of Bartlett itself, I really do not want to return to that issue. I think it is a wrong but defensible choice and that it does not represent a rejection of progressive analysis so much as an emphasis on different criteria and definitions. Were Pujols on the Rays, I would have a stronger critique of the selection, but given the particular case of the Rays, and given Topkin’s access to the locker room, I don’t think it is outrageously wrong.
by bobr on Mar 20, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Face it
We are NEVER going to see eye to eye on this, you know why? I tried to ask Topkin about this and he felt cornered. I got that sense about it. So, he chooses his avenue to defend himself. That’s why there is a bit of what can be called “cowardice” coming from certain people’s direction. He like lots of other beat writers in this town in other sports, lack certain critical perspective and would rather score brownie points, for whatever reason, then bring a discerning, unbiased critical eye towards it. You can almost put any statistical analysis to try to defend anyone and that same person half way smart can create what would appear to be a disciplined, reasoned argument.
No reason to delve any further into this, but there are other reasons that I and a couple of others made this conclusion SPECIFICALLY about him. I know how you feel about this, and believe it or not I respect the heck out of it. But it doesn’t make either of us either correct or incorrect, right or wrong. You can slam me for thinking that Marc Topkin blows, but know that just because he says one thing or presents one argument that I disagree with isn’t the reason I think that way. It is over a course of time, and it comes from not only trying to talk and ask him questions in HIS forums, but with other peers that know him who have nothing to gain from answering a politely asked question from a fan. The danger and crime about Marc Topkin is that he KNOWS that if he could use “the proper use of statistics in baseball arguments, or at least is not willing to use them in a disciplined way”. He knows this, but yet only regards it to benefit him or whatever his motivations and objectives are. I will say this and leave it at that, but his beat writing other than his statistical analysis, I know he he has employed a similar style in covering the team, either ignoring or glossing over other pertinent information for a different benefit, again right or wrong.
The pick of Bartlett wasn’t an “outrage”. Plain and simple. But saying he was the proverbial straw that stirred the Rays drink last year is something I take umbrage to. We sure as heck would not have won the division nor the pennant without his contributions. This Bartlett deal didn’t have to be brought up and mentioned in the tact and delivery Topkin chose to. First instincts can either be right or wrong, but I thought he was basically snubbing himself at the “establishment” in defending himself. Was there a different way he could have presented that same article? In my opinion, absolutely.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 21, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at the defensive numbers this year and last
2008 (Difference from ‘07 using FanGraphs UZR/150 metric)
1B- 6.0 (4.9) 2B- 4.0 (10.5) SS- 2.1 (+11) 3B 17.8 (21.4)
LF- 19.5 (26.3) CF- 12.1 (24.7) RF- 9.1 (11.1)
- 4/7 of these positions had a higher increase compared to our SS position. While i’m sure most of us don’t think JB will continue to be just a 2.7 UZR/150 SS (or that Crawford will go back to being an avg LF like ‘07), he clearly was not the most improved part to our defense, nor was he our MVB/P. I just don’t see how justifying Topkin’s thought process with JB being the biggest upgrade to our team defensively is accurate, especially when you have Longoria’s 20 UZR/150 compared with Aki’s ‘07-2.1 uzr/150 at 3B, and Jason Bartlett’s +2.7 compared to Harris’s ‘07 -11.1 at SS, there’s nearly an entire win in difference between the two, without even bringing a bat into the equation.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Mar 20, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
don't know why the SS-3B is lined through if you can't make it out it is, -2.1 (+11) 3B
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Mar 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not defending the choice, and
certainly do not think any use of stats can do so. I suppose we might note that SS is, after Catcher, the most important defensive position on the team, so an improvement there means more that it does anywhere else. But I am not prepared to assert that with any confidence either.
Rather, I am pointing out that in traditional thinking, the definitions of MVP are often more nuanced than those of statistical analysts, and the types of evidence used are also different. I see little point in assaulting mainstream journalists for persevering in that sort of thinking, especially when they obviously respect the newer approaches and make an effort to refer to them with respect. We are fortunate in TB to have reporters and columnists who seek to educate their readers in newer thinking even if we are not always satisfied with the specifics of their articles.
I cannot imagine seeing your paragraph being written in the beat reporter’s article in the St. Pete Times or the NY Times, nor should it be. To most readers it would be arcane to the point of incomprehensibility. Mainstream journalism is still essentially about character and drama and the intangibles that make sports so much fun to most people. It is about perceptions, of players about other players and fans about players. It is literature. Without suggesting that sports articles are comparable in any way, you would not criticize “War and Peace” because Tolstoy was inaccurate about some of the battle of Borodino or misunderstood Kutuzov’s strategy. My analogy is clunky I know, but the kernel of truth is there. Literature may not be true, but it often poses as analysis to get at some kinds of truth.
by bobr on Mar 20, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
And thought your previous comment (As all of yours are) was well thought out and presented nicely, I was just frustrated with Topkin and the holes in his reasoning. You’re right if they used the same stats we did, we wouldn’t be having this argument.
Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation
by CubFanRaysaddict on Mar 20, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I see little point in assaulting mainstream journalists for persevering in that sort of thinking"
There is no point.
Lancaster and Topkin are great beat writers, but anyone getting analysis from them is going to be lacking. Meanwhile, anyone getting news or quotes from us will be lacking. A combination of both is best. It’s like scouting versus stats, there is and should never be an argument; there’s room for both.
Now whether everyone realizes this or not, well, that’s not my problem and I’m not going to make it my problem.
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Not entirely related, but Dave Cameron recently announced he’ll be doing some writing for the Wall Street Journal. I’m not going to lie, I bookmarked the WSJ Sports page after I heard about it.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 21, 2009 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see them take the next step
and incorporate more advanced stats and statistical reasoning into their articles and columns. I don’t mean for them to replace what they already do well, but to supplement it. While I don’t think they could or should include the detailed graphs and charts or the closely reasoned arguments using somewhat esoteric data and formulas, I do think it possible to popularize sabermetric approaches without dumbing it down. It is a challenge, which Posnanski meets very well, but doable by others. To this point, there is a wary acceptance of their existence and a willingness to consider them if not to fully credit them. Actually, used properly and with skill in the hands of good writers, I think they will enliven mainstream writing and make it more interesting to the casual baseball fan. And it would certainly set apart those journalists who adopt (and adapt) that approach.
By the same token, it seems to me there is an increasing respect within the sabermetric community for the insights provided by traditional thinking, sort of like finding real value in folk medicine that is based on experience and trial and error rather than scientific experimental methods. In some cases sabermetricians are revisiting traditional assumptions using their statistical methods to discover they have some validity, or at least may suggest fruitful further research. And in others, they seem to be leaving more room in their theories for the unquantifiable.
Your point is, in my view, exactly right. There is not now, nor has there ever really been, a real conflict, although the rhetoric (more from the traditionalists, it seems to me, but not exclusively) has often seemed to create one. That is why I get so irritated by repeated nonsense such as “stats don’t tell the whole story”, or “stats are misleading”, or as apparently happened on the mlb network recently, when commentators address the usefulness of statistical analysis as if there is an either/or between that and the judgments based on having played the game or been in the clubhouses. It is why I remain disappointed in the mlb network for having taken the easy approach to the game rather than trying to break new ground. I don’t blame them; I just think it is an opportunity missed.
by bobr on Mar 21, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm rambling here, so please excuse it.
We can go in circles about how newspapers and MLBN could be presented in manners that appeal to larger numbers, frankly I don’t think anything is changing anytime soon, and that’s unfortunate, but not exactly unexpected.
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If a newspaper sports writer had invented VORP – or some “nerdy stat”- would it be shunned like so? Obviously I don’t know the answer to that question yet it seems writers embrace the statistics that their fellow writers developed, despite how questionable the measure is. Again, can’t confirm either way, it’s something I do think about though.
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Frankly, we were going to ignore this. There’s no way of knowing if he meant DRB. If someone doesn’t appreciate or respect the analysis put forth on this site then I strongly encourage them to not read it. You don’t see anyone here going out of their way to attack others work, you also don’t see anyone here saying things like “This is going over your head so don’t call it underground.”
If people, Topkin included, want to pretend we have no idea about baseball, then by all means just ignore what we say.
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A friend of mine at a well known site got an email from a Philly sports writer asking why he said Burrell was better defensively than Ibanez. Not defensively, but just an honest question of how my friend arrived at that conclusion. My friend explained to him that he used UZR and numerous other defensive metrics in combination, and used three years worth for reliability. The writer thanked him and is apparently using the new found knowledge in a piece. I don’t know if the writer will be critical or accepting of the knowledge, but that seems like a far better way of dealing with confusion over analysis than simply writing my friend off as an internet blogger or stat headed critic.
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If the whole problem with blogs is a lack of accountability, yet you treat the ones who pride themselves on accountability are going to be met with a sense of bullheadedness, then what is the point?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 22, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They will never do it
Because it’s too much work for them, especially for some people who are simple minded.
Joe
by joedobr on Mar 22, 2009 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs






















