Spring Training Stats

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 2, 2009 3:15 PM EST

Carlos Pena's 2007 spring is perhaps the best performance in spring history. Remember when Carlos Pena sent every pitch in sight 500 feet the other way? How he found holes with such skill that ants were jealous? Oh, and when he hit that one shot off Curt Schilling that set the tone for the rest of the spring?

Great memories right?

Absolutely.

One problem: right now either you're scratching your head, void of these "memories", or you're lying to yourself. Pena's 2007 spring was atrocious. In 42 at-bats Pena had nine hits - none of which were homeruns - and a .310 slugging percentage. Awful, right? Then Pena turned into Albert Pujols and posted a six-win season.

During that same spring, Akinori Iwamura had a sub-200 batting average and slugged less than .300. Jorge Velandia had a SLG equal to B.J. Upton, and Shawn Riggans had a SLG near .500. Funny how those worked out, right? Heck, Ivan Rodriguez had six homeruns in 35 at-bats last spring. In 429 regular season at-bats, he had seven.

I think Marc Normandin said it best:

The reality of the situation, however, is that these occurrences rarely portend improved play. Just because we want our favorite scrub to be capable of continuing to slug .500 for more than these four weeks does not mean he will. On the other hand, it also doesn't mean that all of the numbers accumulated in the preseason are worthless.

ESPN.com

There are instances of deity-like performances leading to regular season success, but just don't count on it and at the same time don't fret over a weak spring.

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Pedroia hit .159 with a .450 OPS last spring

Spring Training stats are as worthless as confederate dollars

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Mar 2, 2009 3:21 PM EST reply actions

Actually, as collector's items Rebel $'s

now probably have some value.

RJ once again demonstrating his high VORP – Voice Of Reason Posting.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 2, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Jason Childers had 10 scoreless innings in 2006

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 2, 2009 3:34 PM EST reply actions

It's the whole processes/results thing

There is a lot that can be told by performance in spring, but numbers are often disconnected from actual level of performance. Several things account for this: crazy spring wind patterns, odd lineups, strange platoon roles (such as starting a lefty platoon hitter to face a lefty pitcher), lack of sample size, and possible disparate effort levels between the scrubs and stars.

This is where old fashioned scouting remains valuable. Are the batters swinging at good pitches? Are the pitchers attacking the zone? Are their breaking pitches showing good movement? These observations can go a long way in making good decisions based on what a guy does in spring.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 2, 2009 3:35 PM EST reply actions

scouting? observations?

by Rays4242 on Mar 2, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

One of my better friends in baseball is a scout.

There’s not a sensible baseball analyst who hates or dislikes scouts, it’s the wannabe scouts who drive us batty, such as:

Player X’s delivery is an injury waiting to happen.
Player X’s swing is broke/beautiful.

Good scouts are like good analysts, hard to find and take time to progress.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 2, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

I guess I should not have phrased it 'old fashioned' scouting

However, it’s not like there’s pitch/fx guys at every spring game, simulated game, and live BP. Many of the observations we’d normally have easy access to must be collected the hard way. Spray charts and pitch charts are a really just another method of collecting the info scouts used to be responsible for…or at least the Rays seem to think so.

by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 2, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions