Scott Kazmir Used to Rule the World

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 2, 2009 6:40 PM EST

Between the preview piece and a few others, Scott Kazmir has been my most written about player this spring. Let's continue that, eh?

These comparisons are based using FanGraphs' Win Values for starting pitchers. What I did was take the last three years of data, sort it by pitchers with at least 500 innings - right around Scott Kazmir's total - and then divided their starting pitcher runs by their starting pitcher innings. Making it a per inning rate state rather than a counting stat. The innings limit was placed to filter out pitchers who did not pitch in each of the three years

That left us with a decent amount (53) of starters ranging from CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay to Jason Marquis and Scott Olsen. That suggests we have a nice spread in talent, both in numerical and perceptional senses. Before I present the data allow me to give you a set of baseline numbers to which you should compare these. Remember again that these are pitchers with at least 500 innings over the last three seasons, so there's a sufficient sample size.

The average runs saved per inning pitched of this collection is ~0.17. That would mean that every starting inning that pitcher has thrown over the last three years has averaged a result of 0.17 runs better than replacement. Over 100 innings that's 17 runs - or 1.7 wins - and over 200 innings that's 3.4 wins. Here's a graphical look:

Winningscale_medium

Okay, now let's get to the Kazmir part.

Kazmirbars_medium

Kazmir is the red bar and James Shields is the yellow bar. This is a rate stat, which means on a rate basis over the last three years, Kazmir has been a better pitcher per inning than Shields. It's worth noting that Shields has thrown about 50 additional innings than Kazmir and that's the flaw here. Being healthy, enough to pitch is an important characteristic. Unfortunately, some people take health to an extreme and assume Kazmir needs to throw 200 innings to be effective. That is simply untrue, 170 innings of 2006-2008 Kazmir is better than 200 of an average pitcher. Kaz again in red:

Kazvavg_medium

Kazmir has been extremely good over the past three seasons, people should stop thinking otherwise.

[H/T: PriceMultiCyYoungs for the inspirational quotes]

Table with all the chart data after the jump.

Name	Starting	Start-IP	RUNS/IP	Value Wins	Dollars
CC Sabathia	193	686.2	0.281259108	20.3	$84.20
Roy Halladay	182.7	689	0.265166909	19.1	$79.10
Brandon Webb	184.1	698	0.263753582	19.7	$80.50
Mike Mussina	132.2	546	0.242124542	13.4	$55.10
Javier Vazquez	147.6	626	0.235782748	14.9	$61.00
Johan Santana	161.4	687	0.234934498	16.6	$67.00
Josh Beckett	132.8	579.2	0.229281768	13.7	$57.30
Dan Haren	149.6	661.2	0.226255293	15.4	$64.10
John Lackey	134.5	605	0.22231405	13.6	$53.90
Scott Kazmir	111.1	503.2	0.220786963	11.1	$44.90
A.J. Burnett	114.9	521.2	0.220452801	11.6	$48.70
Chien-Ming Wang	111.2	511.2	0.217527387	11.1	$44.50
Roy Oswalt	135.6	640	0.211875	13.9	$56.30
Jake Peavy	125.3	599.1	0.209147054	13	$52.90
Kevin Millwood	113.7	556.1	0.20445963	11.3	$45.50
Felix Hernandez	116.5	582	0.200171821	11.5	$47.30
Derek Lowe	122.7	624.1	0.196603108	12.9	$52.90
Andy Pettitte	123.7	630.2	0.196286893	12.4	$51.40
Cole Hamels	105.8	543	0.194843462	10.9	$45.50
Aaron Cook	113.6	590	0.192542373	11.7	$48.20
James Shields	105.8	554.2	0.19090581	10.5	$43.90
Cliff Lee	96.1	515.2	0.186529503	10	$42.90
Gil Meche	113	613	0.184339315	11.2	$46.90
Matt Cain	110.9	606.1	0.182973107	11.4	$46.60
Joe Blanton	112.5	619	0.18174475	11.3	$45.80
Justin Verlander	105.9	588.2	0.180040802	10.4	$42.70
Ervin Santana	100.7	569	0.176977153	10.3	$43.00
Aaron Harang	113.3	645.1	0.175631685	12.1	$48.20
Tim Hudson	101.4	583.2	0.173868313	10.4	$42.50
Jeff Francis	94.3	558	0.168996416	9.5	$38.30
Greg Maddux	100.5	602	0.166943522	10.2	$40.80
Mark Buehrle	103.8	623.2	0.166559692	10.2	$43.10
Jon Garland	97.8	616	0.158766234	9.5	$38.20
Carlos Zambrano	95.5	619	0.154281099	9.6	$38.90
Ted Lilly	86.8	593.1	0.146349688	8.6	$35.50
Bronson Arroyo	90.3	651.1	0.138688374	9	$36.20
Doug Davis	74.7	542	0.137822878	7.5	$30.40
Tim Wakefield	67.2	510	0.131764706	6.4	$26.50
David Bush	69.7	571.2	0.12202381	6.8	$26.60
Ian Snell	67.5	558.1	0.120946067	6.7	$27.20
Nate Robertson	65.6	547.1	0.119904953	6.2	$24.80
Zach Duke	59.6	504.2	0.118207061	5.8	$23.30
Paul Byrd	58.1	551.1	0.105425513	5.5	$22.20
Paul Maholm	58.9	560	0.105178571	5.8	$24.40
Jamie Moyer	62.7	607	0.103294893	6.1	$25.40
Jarrod Washburn	53.6	532.1	0.100732945	5	$20.20
Daniel Cabrera	52.4	532.1	0.09847773	5	$19.60
Carlos Silva	49.1	528.2	0.092957213	4.8	$20.30
Barry Zito	55.4	596.2	0.092921838	5.3	$21.60
Jeff Suppan	43.6	574.1	0.075944957	4.3	$16.80
Livan Hernandez	36.2	600.1	0.060323279	3.5	$14.10
Scott Olsen	33.6	559	0.060107335	3.3	$12.70
Jason Marquis	29.4	552	0.05326087	2.9	$12.80

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Comments

KID K!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Mar 2, 2009 6:41 PM EST reply actions

Pimp K

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Mar 2, 2009 6:43 PM EST reply actions

I bet he'd be better with his slider back.

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Mar 2, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions

Most likely.

Still though, people need not forget last year Kazmir was still league average.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 2, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions

I don't want Kaz to be average, I want him to be awesome.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Mar 2, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions

And he was.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 2, 2009 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

Better than Garza.

Runs away

by Sylar on Mar 2, 2009 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

Well, yeah.

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Mar 2, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

You know what I like?

Being one of the very few, if not the only team to have a SP go every single game that gives us a great chance to win.

you know WHO i love? Andrew Friedman

And since I am having a love fest, I love Wade Davis and just think (I don’t want it) Sonny gets hurt and we go a little while with Kazmir – Shields – Garza – Price – Davis. That’s with Niemann in the pen and Hellickson knocking on AAA’s door.

I am just taken back everytime I think of this. We are a team that has no opening(that I can see. anyway) for Hellickson. Moore and Barnese also, well 1 of them and that’s if we trade 1 of our studs.

Okay, I am done.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 2, 2009 7:59 PM EST reply actions

Dare I say...

…that the days of Denny Neagle being invited to Spring Training are over?

by Lurch's Lobbyists on Mar 2, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions

We may invite types like that(Winston Abreu)

but the days of guys like that having a chance of making the team are long over.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 2, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions

He would have thrived here IMO

if he hadn’t been caught picking up hookers that is. R.J. great post, although you shouldn’t have to go out of your way to illustrate the greatness when anyone that has seen Good Kaz knows he is E-L-I-T-E

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 2, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions