Jason Hammel Unimpressive In Bid To Lock 5th Spot
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2009 4:00 PM EDT
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PrintIt may or may not matter, but Jason Hammel did not help his case to become the fifth starter today. In what could've been a potential job clincher, Hammel gave up four runs in four innings on six hits including four extra base hits. One of those was a double by opposing pitcher Zach Duke and another was a triple to Eric Hinske.
The improved control that I have been raving about shown by Hammel this spring failed to show today. Coming into the game Hammel had just three walks in 16 innings, giving me hope that his control issues were starting to be put behind him. However, after today's performance I'm a little uneasy about that. Hammel walked five batters in those four innings and struck out just two.
In a sign that the competition is a little more open than we though, Jeff Niemann will make the start for the Rays on Wednesday night. Niemann has made five appearances this spring, but only two of them as a starter. He will need a really good outing on Wednesday to erase the awful appearance he had against the Blue Jays.
Adam Kennedy played short stop today for the first time this spring. Kennedy started his minor league career as a short stop, but has just one game in the majors at that position. This could be another sign that Joe Maddon is leaning towards keeping Kennedy to fill B.J. Upton's vacated roster spot. If Kennedy is able to back up shortstop, this would allow Ben Zobrist to move full-time to centerfield in Upton's absence.
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Ugh
I know its just a handful of games in any event, but I can’t stop thinking of the possibility that one or two games could make all the difference this year.
by GomesSweetGomes on Mar 23, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I'm starting to come around on this.
When you're 90 years old, you don't buy green bananas.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 23, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
oh, there's no doubt in my mind whatsoever.
this is going to be a tight race all season long in the AL East. and jason hammel gives me absolutely no confidence whatsoever as a starter.
he showed a flash of brilliance last season in boston when he closed out the game to win us a late-season series, but those flashes aren’t frequent enough.
90 IP with Hammel at 5.5 and Niemann at 3.5 is 2 wins.
1. The won’t get 90 IP
2. I doubt Niemann is two full runs better.
That means 45 with a two run differential is more like 1 win, and that means less than two runs is going to be a lot less than a win.
Further.
45 IP 2 run differential: 1.00 win
45 IP 1.5 run differential: 0.75 wins.
45 IP 1 run differential: 0.5 wins.
45 IP 0.5 run differential: 0.25 wins
Calm down.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
So what?
Niemann is better, period. You’re defending bad process by saying that it won’t have a big effect on the results.
Plus, when the margin is probably 5 games or less, then anything greater than about 0.25 wins is statistically significant.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Um, no.
I don’t think there’s much of a difference at all. I’m saying even if everyone thinks Hammel is really, really bad, you’re still getting worked up over nothing.
Bad process: letting your top prospect work out his kinks in Triple-A and moving an injury prone starter to the bullpen.
Yeah…
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Bad process: Moving a starter to the bullpen in favor of giving more innings to a bad pitcher
Vogt early, Vogt often.
How big of a run differential are you seeing here?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Enough to make a difference
In a tight race. You keep discounting it as not significant. I’m saying that even if the difference is only .25 wins, it’s still material, when we’re expecting to be in a playoff race that should come down to less than a 5 win difference between a pennant and sitting at home.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
So more than a half of a run per nine?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on how many innings they're pitching
I don’t know what that works out to off the top of my head.
Based on what you said above, then a half a run difference per 9 over 45 innings is material. Enough to potentially make the difference between being in or out of the playoffs this year.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
That's if the differential is actually there.
The projection systems have Hammel as the best of three, but his minor league numbers are the reason why. Niemann’s not too well liked, Price is in the middle.
I see Hammel being around 4.9 and Niemann 4.5ish. That’s about a half a run differential, little less. I really don’t think 2.5 runs makes or breaks us this season.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Also: assumes 45 IP, but that's obvious.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
Niemann: (5.5 – 5)*(45/9) = 0.5*5 = 2.5
Hammel: (5.5 – 5.5)*(45/9) = 0*5 = 0
2.5 runs.
(Note: the 5.5 reps replacement level, but setting Hammel to replacement level just makes the math easier to show)
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Say you think they get closer to 30 IP
5.5-5 = 0.5
27/9 = 3
That’s 1.5 runs over 27 innings.
Change the differential and innings as you see fit. I just think people are overreacting a bit here, especially when we don’t know where Price is falling into all of this. Is he a 4.5 type too? Maybe lower? Higher? I don’t know.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think every run is crucial at this point
I don’t have diamond mind, but I’d bet money that if you ran the simulations, that the in-out line for the Rays and the playoffs is within a single win more than 5% of the time, and if it’s a single win difference, then a well- or poorly-timed run could make the difference of the entire season.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
I don't have Diamond Mind either.
But you have to realize, injuries, over performers, under performers etc. are all going cost teams more than 0.25 wins. Look at A-Rod. That’s a far bigger hit than Hammel starting a few games. Of course, we might get a big injury hit too, no way of knowing, but in relative terms the Yankees have taken a big shot already.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Is someone going to run the numbers for the season, accounting for losing Perez,
Zobrist in Center, and Hammel starting, all combined?
When you say run the numbers, you mean in terms of expected runs lost/gained?
Or do you mean in a simulation? The latter I can’t do, the former I could work on with some rough estimates.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry for the delay
but I meant the expected runs lost/gained.
I think that would be a valuable number to look at.
Yes
But why not try to do the best with the variables you can control? Of course something horrible could happen that knocks us out of the race entirely, but that’s not the likely scenario.
95% of the time it probably doesn’t make a difference, but that it does make a difference 5% of the time makes the difference material, in my mind. As a general rule of thumb in the legal world, it’s material if a reasonable person would find it important 5% of the time. In the statistical world, it’s statistically significant if there’s more than a 5% difference 95% of the time.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
But we don't know if there's 5%.
If the Rays use something similar to CHONE/ZiPS and combine it with scouting, it’s possible they feel Niemann is better served as a reliever in the majors. Hammel isn’t the ideal starter, but I can understand Niemann in the pen for a few Hammel starts.
I can also understand Niemann making a few starts until Price is ready.
Perhaps I’m just apathetic after starting last year with Edwin and Hammel in the rotation.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 23, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions
In a sign that the competition is a little more open than we thought, Jeff Niemann will make the start for the Rays on Wednesday night.
I dont know why everyone got carried away with thinking Hammel had nearly locked up the 5th spot. The ONLY reaosning behind this message board rumor was that because Niemann didnt get a start last week while Hammel had, than Hammel had nearly locked it up. Only problem was, we have 8 SPs and its only the middle of spring training. Up until last week Niemann was clearly outpitching Hammel, was a higher rated prospect within the organization, and has been the better pitcher every year hes been healthy.
I assumed last week, gathering in all the evidence, that Niemann would get to start this week and Hammel would probably come out of the pen. Looks like even in spite of the worst ST performance imaginable (9 runs in less than 1 inning), Niemann is getting his start this week and the competition is as wide open as it was when the decision was made to give Hammel a start last week and not Niemann
I guess beat writers who follow the team everyday read the same message boards.
The middle of next week is also Maddon’s target for nailing down the fifth starter. It still looks to me like Jason Hammel will be the choice
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Topkin too
Since Hammel emerged as the frontrunner, he had a so-so outing last week and a poor one Monday, including five walks in four innings. In six appearances, he has a 4.95 ERA and allowed 23 hits in 20 innings.
Niemann had been impressive until a rough outing Friday in Dunedin (allowing 9 runs in 2/3 of an inning after 1 in his first 11), and, with a 2-1, 7.71 mark in five games, gets another shot Wednesday that suddenly could be more interesting. One reason Hammel may be the starter is the Rays think Niemann’s future could be as a late-inning reliever.
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 23, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It is safe to assume that it wouldn't matter...
After giving up a zillion runs in less than an inning I can’t imagine any metric looking halfway decent.
IMO if Niemann will be in the pen for the majority of the season keep him there, don't have him start then move.
That is my reasoning behind starting Hammel.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 23, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I swear it never fails
Every quote I see online says this is a 2 horse race, every time I hear Maddon on TV, he still says it’s a 3 horse race so which is it? I believe its Niemann vs Hammel but right now, I can see why Price would still be fighting for that spot.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
I think Price is still in it
But I think his chances are really dependent on Neimann and Hammel sucking
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