How Much Are the Rays Saving with David Price Anyways?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 26, 2009 8:00 AM EDT

Price is still being paid his signing bonus ($5.6M) on August 31^st. This is the third of six increments, and assuming it's a clean six-way split -- aren't all six-way splits clean? - that's about 933K.

Price's salary in the minors this season is $0.15M, in the majors that number raises to $0.75M. If the salary is paid on a monthly allocation - A.K.A he's paid that month based on the percentage of time spent in the minors and majors - then we're not exactly talking about a large sum saved there.

Regarding arbitration and free agency. Pitchers do not age on a curve like hitters. This means that having Price at ages 28-31 is less important than having Longoria at those ages. Ideal world: both are Rays until they're no longer useful. Real world: that might not be plausible. As it is, the Rays will have Price through the end of the 2014 season, maybe there's a chance they can push that to the end of the 2015 season. Price is 23-years-old right now, in 2016 he'll be 29. C.C. Sabathia is 28, for comparison's sake.

There's simply no reason to believe this was 100% or even 60% money driven instead of purely performance and developmentally driven. Anyone who looked up the pitch data knows Price failed to use his change in his cameo last season. Even in his lone start, Price failed to use his change-up, relying primarily on his fastball and slider.

The biggest issue here is trying to estimate how "ready" a pitcher is and comparing this situation to Longoria. There was little for Longoria to work on when he was sent down. Strikeouts and a lack of ‘failure' were the two biggest concerns. With Price, it's less obvious to see these worries, or perhaps to place relevance upon them.

I hate to be the "pro-establishment" guy, but if a staff that includes Andrew Friedman, Gerry Hunsicker, James Click, Joe Maddon, Jim Hickey, and a handful of other really, really qualified coaches and execs say that Price's change needs work along with his fastball command and efficiency, well I'm prone to believe it. At least if there's no suitable evidence conflicting the opinion. Unless there's a Pitchfx rock left unturned, that doesn't seem to exist here.

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I just think it comes down to Friedman recognizing the gap between Hammel/Neimann to Price over the course of a few early season starts just isn’t that large. It isn’t worth having Price start in the majors.

by matthan on Mar 26, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions

Price!!!

Getting to be “old news”….
Price is down to minors….as originally planned!
Time to move on!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Bud Lite on Mar 26, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions

I'm fine with this, as long as it's

Nieman

Hammell needs to go

If he is on the 25 man roster i’ll be very dissapointed, especially if Izzy isn’t

by Raymondo on Mar 26, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions

How come you always manage to spell both of their names wrong.

I could understand one, but both? As for the IZMONSTER, I want him in extended Spring Training. Let him work himself back at his own pace. If we need him it will not be until the mid-point of the season or later, or whenever Percy goes on the shelf.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Won't happen.

he Rays face a tough decision with the former All-Star closer, who said he is unlikely to accept any kind of assignment, even short term, to the minor leagues. “No. … I don’t believe so. But that’s right now,” he said. “I’d have to sit down and talk with everybody.”

Though there isn’t a specific clause in his contract, he said there is an understanding that the Rays won’t “wait until the very last minute” to decide so he’d have time to catch on with another team.

Tampabay.com

When you're 90 years old, you don't buy green bananas.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Mar 26, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Hammel blows and Izzy is not going to

accept an ‘extended ST’

what will that prove

Dump Hammel

by Raymondo on Mar 26, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

So cut him for nothing?

Why are we even going through this again?

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course you try to trade him

but 29 other teams know the Rays dilemma

what will he bring?

by Raymondo on Mar 26, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Even if he brings back only a case of balls you still don't just "dump" him.

Someone will be getting a project guy that could really pan out. When he has control of 2-3 of his pitches he can be effective. I don’t think he has it upstairs, personally, but that is something that can be learned. You can’t the heater. I would like to see him get more aggressive. If he would scream You’re fucking out at the first batter he K’s it could send a message.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't believe anyone stated it was about the $$$$

We all realize this was a business decision. Price in his exit interview yesterday said if he were owner he’d make the same business move. Is he happy about it? Hell NO!

I believe we all realize if Neimann/ Dorothy weren’t out of options we’d be seeing the LH dude from Vandy just bring’n it every 5th day.

by ConnorManning on Mar 26, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions

To paraphrase:

If we’re going to constrain his innings, when would you rather he rack them up? The beginning or the end of the year?

-Joe Maddon

If we didn’t have either of those 2, it would be two other guys that have already proven they can’t be a 5th starter somewhere else. At least we can evaluate/showcase a couple of young flame throwers

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Innings

If Price’s innings are limited, where’d your ather have them spent? in the minors or majors?

Fake Teams - a proud member of the SB Nation

by faketeams on Mar 26, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd take him on strict 70 pitch count outings in Durham

and then call him up for the start on May 31. This gives the other #5 9 starts, which would leave 26 for Price. Let’s say he throws 70*9 = 630 pitches at Durham and 100*26=2600 at Tampa for a total of 3230 pitches. Last year we know that he threw 337 at the ML level between regular season and post-season. He faced 81 batters for an average P/BF of 4.1604. I mention all this because I could not find data for his minor league pitches thrown. We do know that he faced a total of 440 batters in the minors. If we assume the same ratio of pitches-to-batter (which isn’t a real stretch considering all the K’s) that would be 1,830.6 pitches in the minors. This would give him roughly 2,167.61 pitches in 2008. This is about a 49% increase in pitches.
You can adjust the numbers as you see fit. For instance, if he was on an 85 pitch count threshold at Tampa he would end up with 2840 total pitches for the year, this would be a 31% pitch increase from year-to-year.

For comparison, Garza went from 1,452 in 2007 to 3,378 in 2008 (playoffs included) or an increase of about 133.
Shields big jump came from 2006 to 2007 when he went from 1,994 to 3,167 or 58.8
Lincecum went from 2386 in 2007 to 3680 in 2008, a 54% increase. I include him for being a similar age, career path, etc…

You can do this yourself using Baseball-reference gamelogs. Frankly, I don’t see Hammel or Niemann being too far off from what Edwin gave us last year as far as being quite good one start and then having no idea what to expect the next time out. I mention this because the offense still has to do it’s part. We should be good enough that if our starter allows 4 in 5 IP that we can get those back and turn it over to our bullpen.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh and reading that first part over

This assumes that a #5 would get 35 starts. Last year Edwin got 32 so you can probably take another 300 pitches, at least, off of Price’s total this year.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 26, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I fully agree that Price has things to work on and that he's a 3.50 ERA guy yet.

And I fully agree that projected pitchers five years down the road is a lot less pretty than projecting position players.

But that doesn’t mean money wasn’t a factor, especially if you consider the crunched roster and increasing the trade-ability of Niemann/Hammel part of the money decision. Chances are, Price is a league average pitcher in five years (yes, really). So giving up a month or two of his production right now saves nothing. But on the, say, 25% chance he does live up to his hype and stays healthy, they’ll save big bucks, maybe $10M to $15M. And considering Price isn’t all that much better than other fifth starter options right now, competing without him is a solid risk considering the future reward.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 26, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions

I agree about money playing some role

However I don’t think it has to do with the money being saved/spent on Price directly. It has more to do with the salaries of the other players on the squad. Like they do not want to cut players and waste money that way.

by matthan on Mar 26, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions