Tampa Bay Rays Project to Finish Third in Simulations Blowout

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2009 11:00 PM EDT

Replacement Level Yankees Blog took the CHONE, THT, Marcel, PECOTA, ZiPS, and CAIRO projections, plugged them into Diamond Mind Baseball. From there, SG simulates the season 1,000 times each. He's taken the liberty of combing all 6,000 simulations into a handy post for the world to see, and well, the results are interesting.

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC
NYA	95.9	66.1	853	711	2908.8	1776.2
BOS	94.3	67.7	837	703	2157.3	2053.4
TAM	90.1	71.9	795	695	916.3	1591.2
TOR	75.6	86.4	691	742	9.4	80.3
BAL	74.5	87.5	781	844	8.3	46.3

The Rays are projected to win 90 games while scoring about 800 runs and allowing less than 700. That means above average run production and prevention, which is expected. In these 6,000 simulations the Rays win the A.L. East 916 times and the Wild Card 1,591 times. That means they make the playoffs 42% of the time.

StD W	Std RF	Std RA	1	2	3	4	5	APW	Std APW
90 - 102	813 - 894	673 - 749	3058	1897	963	74	8	100	95 - 104
88 - 101	796 - 879	667 - 739	2295	2205	1351	130	19	94	90 - 98
84 - 96	756 - 834	659 - 732	1009	1735	2753	431	72	88	83 - 92
69 - 82	654 - 728	705 - 780	14	100	410	2979	2497	78	74 - 83
68 - 81	742 - 820	803 - 885	10	63	320	2457	3150	71	66 - 76

Moving to the right of those columns you see "StD x" which represents the standard deviation either way for each of the categories. The Rays ranged within 84-96 wins, 756-834 runs scored, 659-732 allowed, etc. From there you see five numbers. These represent the final standings place. So in 1,009 simulations the Rays finish first, but these aren't always counted as "division wins" because in the event of a tie SG simply splits the division title both ways (0.5 assigned to each). The Rays finish fourth or below a little over 500 times.

APW is the average amount of wins tied to each standing place and Std APW is the standard deviation again. That means the Rays may have to win 95-104 games for first, 90-98 for second, and so on.

Per projection system:

PECOTA 92 wins, third.

CHONE 88 wins, third.

THT 92 wins, third.

Marcel 89 wins, third.

ZiPS 90 wins, third.

CAIRO 91 wins, third.

The group of death has nothing on this division. Whichever team finishes third is most likely going to be the third best team in the league. There's a good chance we win the division, there's a good chance we win the WC, there's a good chance we finish third. There's also an extremely good chance we do not win 97 games while having a better roster and individual performances.

I guess what I'm saying is, this team and this year's record is going to have a special circumstance surrounding it. That circumstance is playing alongside two additional monster teams and two teams that are not exactly chopped meat in Toronto and Baltimore. Even so, the Rays have a legitimate chance to win the damn thing, and that is all you can ask for.

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Comments

Ahh, The Al East

Is an amazing race truly. in 2 or 3 years i wouldn’t mind seeing baltimore or toronto in on the race

by CB,DT,LB,OR DE is what we need on Mar 30, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions

Espn's "computer" simulations

had us with 93 wins and finishing second. I can’t find it online just saw it on sportscenter today. Sox had 95, Yanks had 91.

I think it was the Accuscore simulation that they used, not positive tho

by jsess813 on Mar 30, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions

Since the numbers say it....

Let’s just forgo the season and schedule tee times for early October. I can “appreciate” the effort put into these projections, but computers are chaotic at best and can’t predict the future. If they could Upton would have been a 30/30 guy last year and we would have been watching the Yanks and Sux play in the ALCS while the TBS execs clicked their heels. Play ball.

I want Baldelli to be healthy enough to play in 150 games, I just hope he sucks. Like Greg Vaughn suck.

by SeanDubbs on Mar 31, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions

I don't think anyone is saying they're definitive or even close to it...

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I know they don't...

I’m just itching for the season to start so we can put all the projections behind us and get to whipping some North Eastern ass.

I want Baldelli to be healthy enough to play in 150 games, I just hope he sucks. Like Greg Vaughn suck.

by SeanDubbs on Mar 31, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I seem to recall mamy of these projections...

…had us hovering around .500 last year. :D

It’s a close call, but I still think we’ve got the most solid club in the AL. I’d put the Red Sox and perhaps the Angels right behind us.

by yeseggs on Mar 31, 2009 12:17 AM EDT reply actions

I know the last form of PECOTA had y'all at 90.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Mar 31, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions

How much A-Rod, and to a lesser extent, Burnett did these projections include?

Also, we know where everyone is at this point, within 2-3 games of each other, lets just start this season up and see who does it.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 31, 2009 12:20 AM EDT reply actions

I'd have to ask or search the comments, but he started prior to the A-Rod injury, so...

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Did we ever find out how many wins two months of Arod would be worth?

If Arod is an 8 win player, can we assume the Yanks would lose roughly 2 more games with him out April and May, assuming a replacement level player mans the hot corner in his absence?

by BossmanJunior333 on Mar 31, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/3/5/781913/how-does-alex-rodriguez-in

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Ensberg?

by Raymondo on Mar 31, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions

It's going to be something when the 3rd place team in the AL East would be the Division winner in the other two AL divisions.

The way I see it, if this team has a good healthy year, we can score runs with both the Yanks and Sox, pitch with them, and play better defense then both.I’d say 2nd in runs scored, 2nd in pitching(FIP), and 1st in defense(pick your stat). Putting these teams in a random 1-2-3 order for the end of year standings won’t really surprise anyone.

In 08’ our true wins matched our third order wins, we outperformed our Pythag by 5 wins but I think the additions/improvements this year should be able to close and equilize that. Boston won 95 games last year and New York 89, it’s not like these team weren’t good last year either. I’d say we get the Wild Card, just get into the playoffs really.

by twenty5psi on Mar 31, 2009 1:53 AM EDT reply actions

I'm very satisfied

with the process Andrew took in improving the team this past off season. The depth of the pitching, and a few less injuries could make this season very good

by Raymondo on Mar 31, 2009 7:22 AM EDT reply actions

IMHO

Our players are going to improve the most (probably fairly significantly…namely Upton, Longo, Kazmir, and Bartlett)…the Sox players are going to improve somewhat, and the Yankee players (nearly the whole team) are going to regress significantly. Nevermind the massive injury risk to the whole Yankee squad.

I’m just not too worried about the Yankees. I think their players are going to drop like flies. Do they seriously expect AJ Burnett to last a whole season? Come on. I love Sabathia but he is an injury risk in himself. Then it wouldn’t shock me at all if every single Yankee player performed (minus Teixiera) worse than their 3 year average. At this point whenever they add a new good piece like Tiexiera all it does it cover the deterioration of their current players.

by matthan on Mar 31, 2009 8:25 AM EDT reply actions

Of course none of these projections cover the

mental breakdown that we are currently witnessing of Arod. I’ve actually always been a major Arod fan, but I think there is like a 50% chance that he will go all Britney Spears on us. I mean in ways he already has.

by matthan on Mar 31, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't necessarily mean he'll play any worse

Manny’s turned into a circus sideshow without showing too many ill effects.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Mar 31, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Manny's an arrogant jerk who likes to be center of attention.

ARod is slowly sinking into the depths of madness. He may well be at Bellevue by the break.

/cue “Leave Arod Alone!” video

by ReasonableDoubt on Mar 31, 2009 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Abolish divisions

Divisions are outdated, every year a borderline .500 team makes it over a clearly superior team in the other league because they just happen to be in the right part of the country or right conference, we see it in every sport. Go to a table system in both leagues kinda like soccer. Teams would still play other teams within their region more often to save travel costs. Top 4 teams based on record in both leagues make the playoffs. I would even go as far as abolishing the NL and AL, but traditionalists would burn me at the stake for such heresy.

by atlantaray on Mar 31, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with the first part of your argument.

by andy.ss80 on Mar 31, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

While the DMB simulation of ZiPS has the Rays slightly behind in 3rd, I’m still “officially” picking the Rays as 2nd and the WC. What DMB doesn’t handle well is simulating injuries and I see the Rays as being much better equipped to deal with injuries, especially in starting pitching, than either of the other two teams and the Yankees are very old and top-heavy and could unravel quite easily if a few things don’t go their way.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Apr 2, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions