First, my help request: WHERE can i find data logs or game logs for players for the past few seasons? The simulation needs to know specific AB results, as in not just 24 HR and 110 RBI, but as in AB 145 was a strikeout looking. Let me know where I Can find this stuff.

Hey, so I am working on developing a simulation in C++ that will model a player (position or pitcher) season by AB in the following way:

Initial outcome space: (AB=0)

Determined by 1/4 weight to past 5 AB, 1/4 weight to first 10 AB last season, 1/2 weight to career line

Use outcome space to form initial outcome (random function with weights for all outcomes)

First step (AB=1)

d(outcome)/d(AB) = 1/4 * prob(past 5 outcomes, including AB=1 and four from the previous season) + 1/4 * prob(outcomes within +/- 10 AB of the same numbered AB last season) + 1/4 * prob(average of last two seasons) + 1/4 prob(career line)

Outcome space (AB=1)

add all the d/dAB's to the outcome probabilities. This should be approximately 0 for most outcomes, except for the outcome that just happened in AB=1. Note that d/dAB doesn't ever decrease for any outcome, but rather, simply increases for some outcomes more than others. This is what creates the secondary effects that make the simulation fun.

Second step (AB=2)

Determined by outcome space, probabilistically

d(outcome)/d(AB) changes in the same way, including AB=1 and AB=2

Iterate for as many AB's as you would like.

Do the same for pitchers, but obviously reverse the outcome space.

Obviously, the weights and choices of games are totally arbitrary at this point, but I'm going to develop it this way first in order to get some results and publish the program here in a day or two. If there are any experienced C++ guys or data miners, PLEASE let me know!!!!