Note to the Tampa Bay Media Concerning Gary Sheffield
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 7:01 PM EDT
42 comments
We're not living in the year 2003.
Gary Sheffield is not a great player in his current form, nor is he better than Pat Burrell. You don't even have to know what wOBA means to understand this. Over the last three years, Sheffield's line is .254/.355/.436* with 50 homeruns. Burrell's line is .254/.385/.504 with 92 homeruns. Those are not comparable. That's almost .100 OPS points; the difference between Carlos Pena and Randy Winn is less than that, and Randy Winn is a good defender. Park-adjusted and in advanced terms, Sheffield has been worth about 21 runs these last three years. Burrell is closer to 70. One of these players is 40-years-old, that player just so happens to be a poorer offensive player.
Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross are average players. Which to most means they're completely useless** but when you talk about non-DH positions, defense actually matters, and Kapler/Gross are good at defense, Sheffield is horrible. Before being shooed to DHing full time, he recorded UZRs that would make Burrell blush. I'm confident when I say Sheffield would be a -15 < x < -10 runs outfielder.
CHONE projects Sheffield at 4.5 offensive runs while ZiPS says 2.3. Let's say he's worth 5-10 runs offensively. Best case: he's a -10 fielder, 10 hitter, gets 600 PA, and plays RF everyday. That makes him worth 1.25 wins. Gross was worth 2.5 last year and Kapler 1.7. CHONE and ZiPs say about 0 for Gabe Kapler and ~2.5ish for Gross. Gross/Kapler are 0 < x < 5 fielders in the corners. So eight runs worse offensively -- if Sheffield finds a way to overcome his age -- and 10-15 runs better defensively.
Throw in Sheffield's ego and unwillingness to do what his teams so desire of him compared to the Gabes, and there's simply no reason to pull the trigger.
We're less than a week from the 2009 season, start acting like it.
*Fun with new B-Ref, 06-08 lines:
Sheff: .254/.355/.436
Gross: .247/.347/.438
Yes, Gross only faces righties, but some people are calling Sheffield's bat "menacing". It's an insult to factual evidence, really.
**Until one hits a homerun and people swoon over how they exemplify the great role player winning teams need.
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Agreed
However, RF remains a concern going into the regular season. Joyce has the potential to fill that roll, but the front office should have better options going into the season. I have to see Joyce play a whole season before I am sold. With that being said, if RF is our only problem area than Iam certainly ok with that
by TheUltimateBucFan on Mar 31, 2009 7:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if this has been said in other threads since I just checked the page
But I really don’t see how Sheffield saying he wants to play with us is “complimentary”. What player wouldn’t want to play for the reigning AL champs? A year ago this time a statement like that would have definitely been a compliment to the team, but now I just see it as self serving. He’d “prefer” to play for Tampa….like hell he should, but we don’t want or need him.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Mar 31, 2009 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he just called us the "devil rays" on mlbtv.
screw him!
Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete
by stpetelawyer on Mar 31, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously,
people need to get it right. The name was changed QUITE a while back. To still call us the “Devil Rays” is pretty lazy.
by yeseggs on Mar 31, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It amazes me that a national league team would consider signing this guy
but if Cliff Floyd can get a job in the senior circuit…
Regressing to the mean streets of St. Pete
by stpetelawyer on Mar 31, 2009 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
General Question
has anyone gone in depth as to (in terms of WAR, or wOBA/UZR to split it up) the two Gabes should give if they theoretically are platooned correctly. It has to be somewhere around 3 wins, right? .350 wOBA against righties for Gross (fine, we can safely assume not all of his AB will come against righties, so can we say between .340 and .345) and I feel the 0 < x < 5 projection by RJ is low (16.7 UZR/150 for Gross, and even if Kapler only matches his career 1 run defensively, which is unlikely given how much time he had in center field to bring that down, I feel these two could put up 7 < x < 12 defensively). Kapler should put up about the same wOBA vs. left handers as Gross did against righties (nothing, including last year, indicates that he is poised for a drop off).
Maybe its me overrating them both, but I sincerely feel that platooned correctly this is at least a .340 wOBA, 5 defensive run RF and at best is a .350 wOBA 12-15 run defensively.
Why is everyone so upset about this. The fact that this is even getting talked about just gets me worked up, I really think its ridiculous given that we have Kapler/Gross/Ruggiano/Zobrist/Joyce. Not all 5 of those players are going to suck, we’ll find a dependable option in there.
by Navi's_Navy on Mar 31, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The 0 < x < 5 runs thing was to be conservative.
As well as to show that it’s not taking much of a fielder to match and exceed Sheffield’s bat.
As for the rest of your points, I agree, and I really don’t understand why anyone thinks the Rays would have interest in Sheffield.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe you guys could do a piece
as to why platoons are scary
by Navi's_Navy on Mar 31, 2009 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because, I can't buy one uni with both of their names :(
I think the key to doing this is trying to balance the ABs against lefties/righties equally. As you said, it’s highly unlikely that Gross is going to see ONLY righties, just as it is with Kapler and lefties, but I’m not entirely sure how to approach that. 80/20 split maybe?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure that
you could look at popular platoons in the past (that have enough at bats) and look at how many at bats they got against a pitcher of each handedness, and that can be used as a baseline. Its not perfect (as it depends on the manager how strict they’ll be with the platoon), and its labor intensive for a process that probably wont change anything more than .5 wins, but its something. I’d bet an 80/20 split would be accurate, but thats just shooting blindly into the dark. Barring injury I can’t imagine it’d be THAT difficult for a manger, but I suppose its easy for me to say that from here.
Its scary to think that if done correctly an above average outfield could be created from smart platooning. If I were a fan of random team (X) finding a .340-.345 wOBA and between 10 and 15 runs in the field, combined, is fine by me. Especially considering you could get a LF, CF, RF that meets that criteria for Carlos Silva’s contract.
by Navi's_Navy on Mar 31, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see where everyone is upset about this,
aside from the few, “CUt GAYBE!!!!11” posts that have shown up and been quickly talked down.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Mar 31, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. Thanks.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 31, 2009 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheff is just naming teams now
He noted that the Phillies have already shown interest. A native of Tampa, Fla., Sheffield was a key player on Florida’s 1997 World Series title team.
“The Marlins, I feel the team, they know me from when we won the World Series,” he told the MLB Network. “And so I have an attachment there.”
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Mar 31, 2009 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Arizona
I hear they have a team now. I’m interested in them. I went to San Diego once. I’d like to play there. Also St. Louis. Colorado."
by Albertrayon on Mar 31, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find it cute that he is getting so desperate now
It’s like the cocky guy that talks a good game all night and then ends up going home alone, because every chick he talked to realized what a desperate doucher he was.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 1, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't want him, don't need him.
But this from the president of the Bonds fanclub?
Throw in Sheffield’s ego and unwillingness to do what his teams so desire of him compared to the Gabes, and there’s simply no reason to pull the trigger.
Come on RJ, cut the act…
by rglass44 on Mar 31, 2009 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Note to the Tampa Bay Media"
They made a big deal about it for Bonds, why not the Gabes?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm on the fence with this Sheff stuff. On one hand, I wouldn't mind keeping Joyce in AAA one more year. Also, if healthy and angry, I think sheff is capable of putting up some monster numbers. Especially for the league minimum.
by walkoffwalk on Mar 31, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Matt Joyce would most likely out-hit Sheffield NOW. Defensively it’s not even close.
by twenty5psi on Mar 31, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sheffield would make this team worse, not better
Or didn’t you actually RTFA?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Mar 31, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think it is out of the realm that Sheff could put up monster numbers even though he hasn't in a couple years. pick him up for the league minimum. if he sucks, release him and call up Joyce.
by walkoffwalk on Mar 31, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"i don't think it is out of the realm that Sheff could put up monster numbers even though he hasn't in a couple years"
You do realize he’s 40, right?
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 1, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what is the worst that can happen if we take a chance on Sheff?
by walkoffwalk on Apr 1, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We miss out on the playoffs.
It’s not "taking a chance’ either. It’s more like trying to recapacitate a skeleton.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 1, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We put a joke in the field
the -10 runs in RF, in my opinion, is generous… he wont be that good.
I don’t know, Sheff brings half a win, the Gabes bring 2 and a half, it sells itself. And the Gabes are religious and you know the religious right fielders named Gabe always make good stuff. You following me cameraman? You’d be out of your mind not to own the Gabes, remember, they’re religious. Beware of Gabe Gross imitators.
by Navi's_Navy on Apr 1, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How long does it take to figure out that he sucks?
And if he’s good, how long do you ride his bad streak after he cools off hoping for more hotness? It’s possible Joyce could put up monster numbers, too, no?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 1, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Marlins released Dallas McPherson. I really hope the Yankees don't sign him.
by walkoffwalk on Apr 1, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I saw him play against the O's down in Jupiter this year
That guy is such a piece of crap. We were about 9 rows behind the plate so I got a good feel for what was going on and he didn’t hustle, didn’t talk to any of his teammates, had a throwing error at first, could barely move in the field, and the bat that he was once know for is completely dead. Shelly Duncan swings that end up topping little grounders over to SS. I hope they get him, cuz that guy is toast.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 1, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I played against Dallas in college...
And he always struck me as a hard worker…I mean the kid did go to a military school(The Citadel). I spoke with him a number of times, and he came across as the non-talkative type. Not in a bad way, he just kept to himself a lot.
He HAD a ton of potential, but IMO probably doesnt have it in him any more. Maybe if the Rays were the Rays of old I would take a flier on him, but not anymore. Unless he wants to play 3rd at Durham.
by td32 on Apr 1, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It sounds like his human value is > than his baseball value
Not a bad thing in the least, but I like Nowak at 3B in Durham.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 1, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care if the Yankees sign him
His minor league numbers are all inflated from park context, and the man is a near cripple in the field.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Apr 1, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I posted this on another site.
I want to reiterate that I absolutely agree that Sheffield is toast and that the Rays should simply ignore his availability. This is more idle speculation than anything else.
______________________________________________________________________
"I am definitely not suggesting the Rays should even consider this, but if they think that Sheffield is still a menacing bat and can survive a full season as DH, they could try to trade Burrell and have Sheffield replace him. The benefit would obviously be the huge savings (near $7 million this year and off the hook for $9 million next) which would allow more budget flexibility if needed this season and next.
Of course those huge "ifs" are serious impediments to even considering that approach. Still, as terrible as his numbers were last year, he hit 14 of his 19 home runs in the second half when he had a BABIP of .223, still walked a good % of the time and did not see a marked increase in K rates."
_______________________________________________________________________________
There may be some rule against trading free agent signees in the first year of their contract-I don’t know-but there is a stipulation that Burrell gets $.2 million bonus if traded, so he does not have a “no-trade” clause. Again, just speculating, but if Sheffield has something left and if Burrell could be traded, not only would there be financial benefits but the return in a trade for Pat plus some of the surplus pitching might be very worthwhile.
by bobr on Apr 1, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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