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A Look At The Race For The Rays Fifth Starter

With an off day today I figured it would be a good time to re-group and take a look at the performance of the fifth starter candidates so far. While spring training stats don't account for much, without the benefit of seeing the games from a scouts point of view, they are all we have. Of course we have yet to see David Price, but the growing consensus is he will be starting the season in Durham regardless.  This leaves us with five candidates who at least have been mentioned by Jim Hickey or Joe Maddon as being in the race.

Star-divide

Player

IP

H

ER

K

BB

Hammel

6

6

0

5

1

Davis

5.2

1

0

4

0

Talbot

8

14

8

3

0

Niemann

5

3

1

7

1

Hernandez

4.1

2

0

1

1

Realistically, both Hernandez and Davis are more likely headed to Durham than the Trop, but both have pitched well. Herndandez  was excellent in his first start, but was not as sharp in his second appearance. Two of his runners scored, but both were unearned. I don't have any numbers on his velocity, but he doesn't seem to be missing many bats with only one strikeout to his credit.

Davis has probably been the Rays best starter this spring. He has faced names like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texieria and Albert Pujols and did not give up a hit to any of them. In fact, he's given up just one hit with no walks and four strikeouts. If this was 2010, he would be close to locking up a rotation spot, however, its not and he will likely be going back to Durham at least to start the season with an eye on a call up should an injury happen.

Mitch Talbot has been the least impressive of the candidates statistically. He has given up four home runs and eight earned runs overall(technically seven since last nights game "didn't count"). He seemed to settle down after his awful first inning against Philadelphia and his last six innings have looked much better on paper. He also held down a pretty potent Puerto Rican lineup last night. Unless something miraculous happens over the next few weeks, Talbot will probably slide into the Bulls rotation for a third straight season.

This leaves us with two pitchers, who regardless of their successes or failures this spring should find themselves on a Major League roster in one way or another. I know it's just spring and the stats don't really count, but you have to be pleased with the control Jason Hammel has shown to date. He has just one walk in six innings and has struck out five. Listening to his last start on the radio, he seemed to be getting a lot of swings and misses which is fantastic. He has pretty much put himself right there at the top of the competition.

The other pitcher is Jeff Niemann. While Davis has grabbed the most attention, Niemann has quietly been dominant. His K/9 right now is over 12 and he has walked only one batter. I'd say he is my favorite for the spot so far, but if you read into Joe Maddon comments last week, his role may already determined.

"You always think about the possibility, and then when you actually see it, it becomes even more of a possibility," Maddon said. "You put him in late in a game and see 96, 97 mph and the downhill look, and it's like, 'Holy (cow).'

"Now we're going to give him a chance, absolutely, to be the fifth starter. But there's a real possibility he could go to the bullpen and really help us. He's the kind of guy you'd have to nurture through, but he's got real potential."

That seem's to be ok with Niemann.

"I know a lot of guys want to say, 'I'm a starter, I'm this or I'm that.' I had experience starting and relieving last year — invaluable experience — and either way to me will be great," Niemann said. "I enjoyed working out of the bullpen a lot more than I thought I would. So whichever way it goes, I don't think it will bother me either way."

The best part is this all could change within a weeks time. It's only March 5th and if you look at the Rays plans, the real spring training doesn't begin until Saturday. It will be interesting to see who gets the most looks and how roles will be changed once the other Rays starters are intergrated into the mix.

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments |

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My thoughts

Rule out Hernandez, Talbot, and Davis. There is no way it’s Davis because he should be in AAA: he has options, needs seasoning, and there’s no reason to use a 25-man spot on him. Talbot would’ve needed to look great to beat out Hammel/Niemann and make it on the 25-man. With options left he’ll be in AAA. Hernandez is roster filler. If he bumps Hammel/Niemann I’d be shocked.

That leaves Price, Niemann, and Hammel. Assuming no trades are made, it would seem to make sense for Price to start in AAA. He could limit his innings and work on his changeup while making starts on regular rest. That would leave Hammel and Niemann. Both have been good (Niemann has been seemingly very good), so it comes down to preference. If the Rays plan on trading one of them they’d be best served to start them in the rotation to showcase them. I do like the idea of converting Niemann to a late-inning shut-down reliever. He could concentrate on throwing hard, filthy stuff with less concerns about walks. In my eyes, Hammel or Price should be the 5th starter because Niemann’s transition could be tricky according to reports about warm-up times (and without options we can’t send him down to work out the kinks).

That leaves the pitching staff like this to start:

Shields
Kaz
Garza
Sonny
Hammel?

Niemann
Cormier
Shouse
Wheeler
Howell
Balfour
Nelson

This assumes Percy starts on the DL. In May/June you bring up Price for a shot in the arm (unless you get a trade partner for Hammel or he craps the bed entirely).

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wishful thinking?

I’m just assuming someone either gets traded or starts on the DL. Otherwise the FO is forced to waive a useful player.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Price has been working on his change up with Shields

What if he turns it into a plus pitch? Rays are going to have a hard time explaining why Price (yeah, the guy who got the last 4 outs of ALCS Game) is being sent down.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 5, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

saw it on 30 on 30

and quotes from Shields and Price about it over at raysindex.com

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 5, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I kind of assumed that it was going to be Price

None of the starters have thrown yet … everyone else is in competition. Why else would they have not thrown Price out on the mound yet if he is at least not “penciled in” as the 5th starter.

I am not sure I want to see Hammel as a 5th starter. I would rather see Neimann or Price as the 5th with Hammel firmly in the bull pen.

Also worth asking … Do you think Hammel clears waivers and makes it to Durham if were to attempt to send him down?

by PewterPirate55 on Mar 5, 2009 12:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I thought the same thing

But it’s just more of them limiting his innings

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 5, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure it's Price's spot...

but what’s the fun in that?

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can I point out again that we're talking about 4-8 IP here?

That’s like re-working your in-season rotation based on last week’s starts.

I’m actually much more in favor of using scouting reports than performance results during the spring. Of course, scouting reports can be objective, as Pitch f/x demonstrates.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hate you...

can’t you just let us pretend what’s going on now means anything?

This is why I hate spring training (especially when I can’t go to the games).

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 8:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Spring training is like friends with benefits.

You get the good (baseball) but nothing fulfilling comes from it (meaningful data) and in the end it leaves you desiring something more (wins that matter).

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 8:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No

You emo queer. It’s nothing like free sex at all.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, at least not for you.

Since spring training doesn’t end quickly.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is your mom running her mouth again?

Guess I’ll have to fill it… quickly.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

TWDS

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Mar 5, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No options?

I know Hammel is out and I think Neimann might be as well so if a trade is not counducted they are are the clear favorites to make the roster, and with the comments Maddon made Hammel will be the fifth starter with Neimann headed to the pen.

B.A.Cook

by bcook on Mar 5, 2009 8:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Did I miss a quote?

Because it seems that around these parts, there is no question that Price goes to Durham. Does he truly have no legitimate shot?

Honestly, what I think is they are trying to do is make Price work as hard as he can and make sure he really makes a great change up. I believe the #5 spot is his to lose, not his just to impress people and get demoted.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 5, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's just something to talk about.

No one knows what the FO is thinking (as far as I know), so we speculate and respeculate about what we would do in a vacuum.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 10:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Price

But what’s the point in sending him to Durham? Just as there was really no point to starting Longoria in Durham last year. It’s a bad waste of resources, isn’t it? Just because Hammel is out of options, that’s no reason for him to take up space on the roster. He has very little upside—long reliever is role for him, and that means he’s an interchangeable part. I see nothing to lose in putting Price as #5.

by keef66 on Mar 8, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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