Percival and Injuries

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 2:49 PM EST

Around Christmas, RJ did a piece on Percival's wOBAA as it related to his various DL trips. Seeing all the talk about outrighting Troy or how he should be used, I figured it might be a good time to revisit his year last year. I again broke his season down into 4 parts (by DL stint), and this time I figured we'd look at his FIP. I used the basic FIP formula [(13*HR)+(3*BB-IBB+HBP)-(2*K)/IP] and used 3.13 for the league adjustment because that's what it was for the AL last year. Here's a lovely table depicting his performance:

	IP	HR	BB+HBP	K	Raw FIP	Adj.	FIP
4/5-5/28	21.3	3	4	21	0.42	3.13	3.55
6/13-6/30	6.7	1	7	9	2.40	3.13	5.53
7/20-8/14	11.0	3	8	6	4.64	3.13	7.77
9/3-9/28	6.7	2	9	2	7.35	3.13	10.48
Total	45.7	9	28	38	2.74	3.13	5.87

As you can see, before the first DL trip he was fairly effective. With each DL stint, he got worse and worse and worse...

In looking at this I wouldn't be afraid to let him start at the back-end of the bullpen, but the second he starts walking people I'd send him packing.

Here's a graph so you can really see the sucktitude:

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Would the perception of him be different if the graph was reversed

i.e. shitty start, solid finish. Survey says yes

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions

I think it's important to note the IP.

In other words, ~21 innings he pitched well and then ~22 innings sucked like a black hole. I don’t really like the way in which the graph presents his performance, though I find it interesting to see the ~~progression~~ descent, because the graph wrongly makes the weights of those periods of time seem equal.

Frankly, having watched many of those painful, painful latter innings, I would say he was playing through the various injuries. I’d like to give the old guy a chance. There’s no sense in outrighting him (especially for Izzy or anyone else on a minor league contract) before we even see if he can revert to his pre-injury form.

B Rad the Ray Fan

by BWoodrum on Mar 5, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions

That's why I provided the IP data.

There’s no sense in outrighting him (especially for Izzy or anyone else on a minor league contract) before we even see if he can revert to his pre-injury form.

This is essentially the theme of my post. I just like others to get a chance to come to the same conclusions without beating them over the head.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I don't have a problem with Percival until he lies to himself about being too hurt to pitch.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

This

but the second he starts walking people I’d send him packing.

BB/9 by period:
1.7
9.5
6.5
12.2

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

I'm making the assumption that the injuries correlated to the walks.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

Hard to repeat your motion when you can barely walk.

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

There's some irony there.

He’s the giver of walks when he cannot walk himself.

It’s like a blind mind giving out eyeballs.

Actually that might explain why he’s blind.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

man*, not mind.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

I like the idea of a blind ming giving out eyeballs too.

Though I’m too sure how that would look…

B Rad the Ray Fan

by BWoodrum on Mar 5, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

Pre/post first DL stint

21.3 IP, 3.55 FIP/ 24.3 IP, 7.90 FIP

Ouch

by rglass44 on Mar 5, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Anyone seen him yet this spring?

Any chance he shed a few LB’s? I think that would have to help. I sincerely doubt he mixed in any salads though!

by TPA08 on Mar 5, 2009 3:44 PM EST reply actions

See this

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/3/1/776749/i-love-doing-nothing-i-to

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Mar 5, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

He's not the bucs

Why would he shed a few linebackers?

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

KAZZA KIZZA!

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

Umm what?

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions

Dunno. It's like a replacement for "Zing!"

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

Oh

in that case thank you, I think

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions

It was pretty obvious looking at the difference of healthy vs. hurt Percy.

Healhy: Good velo. ~93mph, good control, generally effective pitcher.

Hurt: Velo. down to around 89 or 90, horrible control, generally disastrous pitcher.

by twenty5psi on Mar 5, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions

But how many blown saves did he have?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

I was told to leave the premises earlier in the season against the O's

and as I was talking my way into being allowed to stay some nice couple gave me their tickets behind home plate, the security guy had no problem with this and I got to watch the 8th and 9th from about 15 rows directly behind the plate, Percy looked like a mix of junkyard dog and freight train ready to fly off the tracks. I like that and he was just pumping gas over the plate with the occasional deuce mixed in that had sharp downward bite. I’m glad I saw him in the beginning of the year because it was a sight to behold, the end of the season not so much.

Why yes, I am this big of an asshole in person.

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 5, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions