More Templates for a Matt Garza Extension?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 8, 2009 6:34 PM EDT

Tommy has covered some other potential templates in the past so these two likely warrant mention. The Twins and Scott Baker agreed to a four-year extension worth 15.25 million, which also includes an option year worth 9.25 million. Jon Lester, meanwhile, signed a five-year 30 million dollar extension with the Red Sox that tacks on an additional option year as well. Lester's option is worth 13 million.

How does Garza stack up to Baker and Lester?

Baker has thrown the most innings of the trio, 453 innings, has a career K/9 of 6.7, a career BB/9 of 2.01, and a career FIP of 4.05 with no awards or notable achievements of which to speak. Lester has 354.2 career innings, 6.65 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, and a FIP of 4.13. Lester is 25-years-old and Baker is 27-years-old. Comparably, Garza has thrown 317.2 innings while possessing rate stats of 6.6 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, and a FIP of 4.22. Garza is 25-years-old as well.

That puts Garza slightly behind both in innings and FIP, but I'm sure that ALCS MVP trophy likely gains him a few points. Given that Lester and Baker are coming off of their best seasons as major leaguers should also come into play, and while that statement also holds true for Garza, his 2008 was about a quarter of a run worse than both. Garza remains five seasons from reaching free agency while Lester and Baker were four seasons away.

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by Raymondo on Mar 8, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions

Ubaldo Jimenez

might be another good comp for Garza. He signed a 4-year, $10 million deal and has 1 year, 87 days service time.

Jimenez has 16 wins (Garza 19), 0.69 HR/9 (Garza 0.93), 4.46 BB/9 (Garza 3.23), 7.58 K/9 (Garza 6.6), and a 115 ERA+ (Garza 109).

Jimenez’s contract runs through his 2nd arb year, and has two club options to potentially run through one year of free agency, that could increase the whole deal to 6 years and $22.75 million.

That looks like a good comp for Garza (who I think will be better), but also factor in that Garza will be a Super Two after 2009 and he will certainly get more than that. Something like 4/$24.5 million for 2010-2013 looks good for Garza (basically the Baker contract including his option year).

by Eric Stephen on Mar 8, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions

Yep we had that one covered.

Back when Jimenez signed the deal I took a look at how similar the numbers were. I think the Rockies got a real steal there. If the Rays could pull that off I’d give Friedman exec of the year for 2009 right now.

Another one I looked at and thought made sense was Paul Maholm. With his option year he could get 4 years, $24.25 million or pretty much the Scott Baker deal.

by Tommy Rancel on Mar 8, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I just have this feeling about Garza being an ace this season

I think he will be the Rays best SP this season, and if I am right, I really hope we lock him this spring or early in the season.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 8, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions

The funny thing is

he could easily end up being our 5th best pitcher. Shields: awesome. Healthy Kaz: awesome. Sonny: FIP awesome, Price: awesome potential.

On the other side he has the stuff to be the best starter. What I love so much about this rotation is the diversity. All of the SP have very different styles or come from a different side (the exception being Price and Kaz, whom I think are very similar, but if Niemann starts in the rotation (plz) then that’s even more different, spitting hot fire from way up in the sky.)

<3 pitching depth.

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Mar 9, 2009 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh I can't say it enough either

What’s our depth chart right now for SP’s?

Shields
Kazmir
Garza
Sonnanstine
Niemann
Price
Hammel
Talbot
Davis
Hellickson

I mean…..we don’t even have room to have 2 studs like Niemann and Price in the rotation. I see absolutely no spot for Hellickson. And are there ANY other teams that would have Davis that low down?

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Mar 9, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Good comparison

It would be somewhere between Ubaldo and Lester, but I could see a 5/30 with a 6th option that could bring it into the 40’s. I wonder though if they MAY want to lock Price down before Garza though?

Joe

by joedobr on Mar 9, 2009 1:48 PM EDT reply actions