Series Preview: 4/10-4/12 Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
4/10: Andy Sonnanstine vs. Mark Hendrickson (7:05 Sun Sports)
4/11: Jeff Niemann vs. Jeremy Guthrie (7:05 Sun Sports)
4/12: James Shields vs. Adam Eaton (1:35 FSN Florida)
Don't be confused by the Orioles so-so rotation this season. This organization has pitching depth in the minors that rivals the Rays. Erik Bedard is a good pitcher, but the Orioles absolutely robbed Bill Bavasi blind between the pitchers, George Sherrill, and perhaps the second best centerfielder in the AL East, Adam Jones.
I'm sure everyone remembers Hendrickson, affectionately nicknamed Lurch. His three and a half seasons with the Rays are likely regarded as awful, but he was right around average each season when judged by FIP. Lurch primarily uses his fastball, throwing the mid-to-upper 80s "heater" around 60% of the time. He'll also use a curveball against lefties and a change-up to righties, each about 15% of the time. Lurch is gopher ball ridden - this spells well for a certain right-handed hitter acquired in the off-season.
Guthrie is a lot like Lurch, only short and throws right-handed. Heavy fastball usage (sits in the 92-94 range, although last year was down to 91-93), a slider, a change, and to a far lesser extent a curveball. All told, Guthrie only got hitters to swing out of the zone 22.2% of the time last year, compared to a MLB average of 26.2%. He's also homer prone, meaning Carlos Pena could have some fun Saturday night.
Yeah, I had no idea Adam Eaton was still around either. He certainly fits the mold though. Homerun bound, ~4.5-4.9 FIP and cheap. He too uses his fastball around 60% of the time, but also throws a cutter, slider, change, and curveball. Over the last few years Eaton has been iffy on swinging strikes, which suggests most of his pitches are nothing more than junk. His velocity was down last year, although it could rebound to the 91-93 range again.
Starting Lineup:
1B Aubrey Huff
3B Melvin Mora
LF Felix Pie
CF Adam Jones
Underrated lineup alert.
Zaun is a placeholder for Matt Wieters - who was struck out on three pitches by Mitch Talbot yesterday. (Take that, haters!) You know Huff, Roberts, and Mora. Izturis isn't much of an offensive threat, although he's pretty solid defensively. Speaking of defense, that outfield is insane. Jones is ridiculous, Pie is great in the corner, and Markakis is above average as well.
In the pen, you have Danys Baez, Matt Albers, Brian Bass, Jim Johnson, Dennis Sarfate, Jamie Walker, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill. As for those on the bench; Chad Moeller, Robert Andino, and Ryan Freel.
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Garza and Guthrie in 2008
Name BF BBt H SO HR Outs OBPa O/BF SO/BF BB/BF H/BF HR/BF K/H BAA
Guthrie 796 67 176 120 24 553 0.305 0.695 0.151 0.084 0.221 0.0302 68% 0.241
Garza 772 67 170 128 19 535 0.307 0.693 0.166 0.087 0.220 0.0246 75% 0.241
I know this won’t format well, so you may want to look it up here LINK Here are some various stats Guthrie and Garza in 2008. I think Guthrie is a tad underrated by most. As I was looking at this it stood out to me how similar these guys were last year. Same BAA, essentially same H/BF, essentially same BB/BF, Garza gets the slight nod on K/BF. Their OBPa was within 2/1000ths of a point. I think the most obvious difference is that Garza will be a number 3 this year while Guthrie will have to be the ace. Results-based analysis may show Garz as the better guy at the end of the year, but I think Guthrie is going to end up with decent peripherals.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
So Garza strikes a bit more out, walks a bit more, and gives up about 0.2 less homeruns per nine.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 10, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
The HR's ratio is
Guthrie 3.02%
Garza 2.46%
So its more like half a point. Digging a little deeper:
Name LD/GB/FB
Guthrie 18.2/43.8/38.0 Babip=.267
Garza 18.5/41.7/39.9 Babip= .278
I just find it pretty interesting that one teams ace is our number 3 starter.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 10, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The homeruns make a difference in run averages though.
Check the tRA/FIP difference.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 10, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll post them here
Name tRA* FIP
Guthrie 4.80 4.53
Garza 4.58 4.14
Going by ML rankings (thanks statcorner) Garza was 54th, sandwiched around names like Lackey and Zambrano to the north and Baek and D. Davis to the south. Meanwhile, Guthrie was 68th surrounded by talent like Pelfrey and Moehler above, and Verlander and Matsuzaka below. I’m not a huge fan of FIP, but tRA* is solid. In 2007 Guthrie was again 68th (5.08) in qualified pitchers, while Garz was 45th (4.66), though he didn’t have enough xOuts/PA to qualify.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 10, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
and tommorrow
the northeast blows.
I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. - Thomas Jefferson
Too bad we're playing in the mid-atlantic!
I keed, I keed.
Glad to be leaving the mid-atlantic for Sunny FL for a weekend.
There lineup is good.
And it could be very good once Wieters comes up.
BROB
Pacman
Markakis
Huff
Wieters
Mora
Pie/Church
Wiggington
Izturis
O's Line-Up
Suck for Montanez that they acquired Pie. Pie is out of options. I’m glad he’s down in AAA right now not facing us. An outfield of Markakis, Jones, Montanez is jam packed with talent. Not as talented as ours will be next week!
by BillyHatcherFan on Apr 10, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions
Uh, I'd rather have Pie than Montanez.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2923&position=OF
One big year out of how many, and we’re supposed to buy that one data point as his true talent level? That seems pretty unlikely.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 10, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

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