Is Andy Sonnanstine More Hittable Than Most?

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 12, 2009 9:36 PM EDT

This debate has been beaten to a bloody pulp and frankly, I am beyond tired of it, which is exactly why I'm going there.

It's inevitable. Following a poor Sonnanstine inning or start you'll see comments about how he's hittable. The sub-90 heater, questionable breaking stuff, etc. all gets mentioned. The latest argument (posed by Brickhaus) is that Sonnanstine's hittability is proven by his BABIP being higher than team average last year and the year before.

Maybe he's right.

Of the 43 pitches with at least 150 innings who had higher individual BABIPs than their team’s average BABIP, Sonnanstine had the second lowest amount of line drives given up behind only James Shields – who actually overperformed his team’s BABIP the season before. Sonnanstine actually falls 9^th on the list when ranked by Team BABIP – Player BABIP behind Manny Parra, Kevin Milwood, Ian Snell, A.J. Burnett, Nate Robertson, Carlos Silva, Josh Beckett, and Livan Hernandez. Sonnanstine was also amongst the tops in Strike%, behind Nick Blackburn and ahead of Randy Johnson and Roy Halladay at 67%. He was fifth in flyballs given up, and 29^th in grounders.

As for chasing out of the zone, Sonnanstine got more than guys like Burnett, Greinke, and Parra while finishing percentage points behind Josh Beckett. Sonnanstine finished with the same swinging strike percentage as Carlos Zambrano and more than Mark Buehrle, Kevin Milwood, and Mike Pelfrey.

Beckett and Burnett are flamethrowers who can top out over 95 miles per hour. Quite a contrast to the soft-throwing Sonnanstine. Both have also had wildly successful careers, yet here they are, allowing more hits on balls in play than their team by a decent margin. Does that mean their pitches were more hittable?

Sonnanstine's pitchf/x readings look fine. All of his pitches move and while his velocity is a touch low, it's not unbelievably so. Heck, he's closer to James Shields than Justin Duchscherer.

In 2007, the top "hittable" types were Kevin Milwood, Mike Mussina, Wells David and Kip, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Bonderman, Josh Beckett, Doug Davis, Jose Contreras, and John Smoltz. Outside of Milwood, Kip, and Davis, how many of those guys are called hittable? Pettitte again was more hittable than average, as was Roy Halladay (again), Edwin Jackson, and even Felix Hernandez. Beckett by the way finished with a 15.8 line drive percentage, the lowest of the group.

Let’s go to 2006. Your top 10 "hittables": Bonderman, Pettitte, Byung-Hyun Kim, Blanton, Jake Peavy, Jeff Weaver, Joel Pineiro, Rorigez Lopez, Orlando and Felix Hernandez. After them comes pitchers like Javier Vazquez, Brad Penny, Aaron Harang, Roy Oswalt, Curt Schilling, and so on.

Felix appears for the second time. This is the same guy who might’ve been the most hyped pitching prospect this decade if not for Stephen Strasburg and Mark Prior. Proclaimed King Felix before he ever touched the majors, Felix’s average career fastball is over 95 miles per hour and his curveball is the ultimate finisher.

Meanwhile, the pitcher who second most outperformed – meaning had a lower BABIP – than his team? Josh Beckett. His FIP that season was a career high 5.12 thanks to a career low in strikeouts and a career high in homeruns allowed.

I guess he really is hittable.

This probably won’t end the debate and nothing really will until we get HitFx data and it proves one way or the other that Sonnanstine’s balls are hit harder than the average pitcher. For right now, the only methods we have are completely objective – thus rather worthless without proof – and subjective – which all suggest Sonnanstine is not more hittable than the normal pitcher.

Either way you lean, it's pretty clear that just having a higher BABIP than your team without having an unreasonably high LD% doesn't mean you're more hittable.

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The Excel document, for your enjoyment.

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Comments

Wouldn't LD% be the best way to judge hittability?

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Apr 12, 2009 10:23 PM EDT reply actions

I would think so when hit f/x comes out because then there will be a tangible way to differentiate between a fly-ball and a line-drive.

by walkoffwalk on Apr 12, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd hit that

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 13, 2009 1:41 AM EDT reply actions

With a sledgehammer

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 13, 2009 7:03 AM EDT up reply actions

My argument

Was a combination of higher than team average BABIP and lower than league average swinging strike rate. It’s only been two seasons, so it certainly could just be attributed to randomness. There aren’t too many guys out there who are consistently more hittable on the balance, as you’ve shown.

Keep in mind though, that even if someone is more hittable, what does the difference really end up being over the course of a season? Maybe 5 – 10 hits, at most? That could just be having a couple of bad days when you don’t locate your pitches well and the better hitters are able to basically hit the ball where they want it to go, as if they’re in batting practice. If that’s the case, it would be hard to pull from a season’s worth of data, simply because the variance isn’t that great (after all, he’s still a major league pitcher, not someone who flamed out in AA because literally every decent hitter can make the ball go where they want to off of him) and because 80% of the time he’s not more hittable than the others.

I think this is a way that it makes sense. In an extreme example, you’ve got this new pitcher, B.P. Machine, who somehow makes the majors and just throws 70 mph fastballs down the middle. His OPSA and TRA and every other stat would be off the charts, because almost every major league hitter would be able to get a hit half the time, because when you have a pitch like that, every hitter has a good enough eye and good enough bat control that they can hit a bloop into left center if they want to, and a lot of guys would have a better chance of hammering the pitch out of the park if that’s their predilection. On the other extreme, you have Mariano Rivera, who when someone actually hits his ball in play, it’s about as random of a sample as you can get because the hitter is just trying to make contact, but can’t really control where the ball is going to go too well. If BP Machine is a 0 and Rivera is 100, then most MLB pitchers are somewhere in the 80-90 range. All I’m saying is that Sonny is at 80.

Also, it probably wouldn’t show a huge difference in LD rate. Maybe a small one, but the point is that the hitter is better able to control directionality as opposed to vertical axis.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 13, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions

So, while I realize this is too complicated to do here

The way to prove this right or wrong would be to see whether he has a normal random variation of location of hit ball distribution based on the batters he faced.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 13, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess ball hit speed would be a factor as well

Not that we have that info so much

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 13, 2009 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Well doesn't one of the defensive metrics break the field down into wedges?

Couldn’t you compare wedges if you could find the data. Say if a guy gives up more down the line, up the alley, and over the wall shots I would think it would be fair to call him more hittable than a guy that gives up a higher percentage of In Zone FB’s and atem ground balls.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 13, 2009 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions

This is what I was referring to

Sorry about the size but I had to slide this in both hard and deep.

I would think somewhere, someone has charted all balls hit. If you are getting a lot of hits in the H-I range those are probably well hit. I think you get where I am going with this.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 13, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

This is basically what I mean, though a bit more complicated, since you would also need to adjust for the hitter tendencies. But there should be a hypothetical balls hit distribution based on who a pitcher faces, and if the distribution differs significantly from what it should look like, especially on a consistent basis, then you can draw some conclusions about hittability there.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 13, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

This was/ is a great peice

W/O looking into all the stats and breaking down K/IP, line drive outs, etc. the real question I would have is: when a pitcher is not on, how hittable is he? I could be wrong in stating this, however, when Andy doesn’t have his command he gets crunched. When a pitcher with a sub – 90 heater doesn’t have his command in comparison to a Neimann who throws in the mid 90’s, if I’m a hitter I want to see Sonnanstine on the bump because thats BP (batting practice).

I love watching Andy, I support any decision made regarding Sonnanstine. I to believe he is a very hittable pitcher and if I’m a hitter he’d be the pitcher of choice out of the SP on the Rays staff I would choose to face. Last season w/o the fastest/ bestest defense behind him I’m certain Andy’s E.R.A. amungst other stats would have soared. Not to mention opposing hitters in the Trop do not fair too well.

There’s a loooong list of variables, I believe Andy can be the odd man out if Neimann finds his click.

by ConnorManning on Apr 13, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions

So you'd rather face Sonny over Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Price

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 13, 2009 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

In a word

YES!

I do not know if you’ve played college ball or not Sandy however here’s my view on it.

Shields stuff IMO is the hardest to hit and swing and to find a strike to swing at . As a batter with James stuff he keeps you guessing which can fluster a hitter. With James stuff to really hit him you have to look for one pitch and wait for it and get it. He’s just Maddux like. His stuff is moving everywhere and changing speeds.

Garza’s would be the second hardest pitcher to hit if I’m choosing to face a pitcher on the Rays. His stuff is just over-powering and his curveball is knee-buckling. You have to be expecting fastball hoping he leaves it over the plate to hit. If he doesn’t it’s back to the pine.

Kazmir? If you sit on his fastball you’ll get it. This is th eonly reason why I’d face him 3rd. Scotts stuff is just plain o’l nasty.

Price? Wouldn’t want to face him at all. I watched him warming up a season ago next to former scout George Zuraw by chance. He’s a Big man and his pitches come in hard with movement. I would not want to face Price period when he’s on. He is near unhittable when he’s locating his slider and fastball.

Sonnastine? He’d be my choice to hit the ball into the LF seats. I believe this is why he gets many balls that are not hit hard as hitters are always trying to yank him out of the park. Andy often wins the chess matches as he throws many pitches changing speeds throwing the longball hitters off balance. If players were going after hits rather than the long ball I believe Andy wouldn’t be as effective.

If I’m a hitter, I want to see Any on the hill. You can look breaking ball and still catch up to his heater.

That’s just my take on it w/o looking at stats.

by ConnorManning on Apr 13, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I was agreeing with you

And in no way is that a slight to Andy. I think he wants you to think there is a chance you could drill one out, and maybe you can and maybe you can’t, but with the other 4 you’re just hoping to get on. If I had to pick out of the big 4, I would want Price just cuz I think I’d be able to work a walk out of him, plus I’m right handed. Shields seems like he teases you so hard dropping that change out of the strike zone.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 13, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions