High Leverage, Low Velocity; Is Dan Wheeler DL Bound?
by Erik Hahmann on Apr 15, 2009 12:00 PM EDT
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Last night's game presented Dan Wheeler with his first true test of the 2009 season. He did not pass. In fact, he failed miserably. He failed worse than I did in my high school calculus class. He failed worse than Sonny Bono on the ski slopes. He failed worse...ok ok you get the point. For all the guff we give Wheeler he actually been surprisingly good in high leverage situations, considering his nickname is 'Cardiac Dan'. He put up a .193/.258/.403 slash line in 132 PA's last season, although he did give up six of his 10 home runs in those spots.
He came into last night's game in the 9th inning of a one run ball game, which certainly qualifies as high leverage. It all went downhill from there. Wheeler promptly gave up three line drive singles, to sluggers like Ramiro Pena and Jose Molina no less, and then proceeded to pump the strike zone with fastballs until Derek Jeter hit a 420 foot home run to deep right-center field. However, the home run wasn't the big news. Wheeler’s fastball topped out at 87MPH and was sitting at around 85MPH the whole inning, which is a significant drop off from his usual 89-91MPH. As Jonah Keri said to me "It's not hard to hit a straight 85mph fastball a long way." A big drop off in velocity is normally the sign of an injury so I wouldn't be surprised if Wheeler landed on the DL in the coming days.
Vs. Jeter
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Way to name drop...
Mid-80 fastballs down the middle and up in the zone is a bad combination.
We knew the balls in play regression was coming, but I didn’t see a collapse in velocity. Concerning, wonder if it’ll continue.
85MPH fastballs, down in the middle of the plate and up in the zone.
He was pitching batting practice to Jeter. I’ve still had enough of his home runs.
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Release Points
About an inch difference from his first appearance to last night. With that is a 2-3 MPH dip in velocity. He was averaging 88 on 4/8/09, but maxing out at 87 last night with most pitches around 85.
www.draysbay.com
Inch-difference down?
He dropped his release point? Uh oh…
Maybe a DL stint would be the best thing, though.
Actually higher. We're working on some world famous DRB graphs to compare.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Are all these pitches released from the same plane on the third dimension of this plot (in and out of the image)? I would love to get these into a 3D matlab volume for you guys sometime.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 15, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, yes.
How else would I complement a potentially sexy plot like that?
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 15, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I think so.
I’d have to send you the data though.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting.
Seems like an assumption that every pitch is released from the same distance. Feel free to email the data as would be fun to play with: andyf@email.arizona.edu
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 15, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It is.
Do you just want Wheeler’s data? I have complete data from every game thus far including from our hitters.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure send me all the stuff
I’ll play with the Wheeler stuff, and maybe a couple players at first.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 15, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless his velocity has picked up, he'd be just as bad.
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As I'm looking through the roster, the only suitible short-term replacement I see is Price.
I’m really pulling for Orvella right now, he basically hasn’t pitched in 2 years but if he can get a couple of months in and manage to do well he should be ready to go as a reliever.
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This. On 40 man already, has options.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Based on what?
He’s getting more swinging strikes than any of us knew he could and his tRAs have been off the charts.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes to both.
Plus guys like Day, Choate, Childers, etc. those aren’t sexy names, but we’re just looking for a league average reliever who ISN’T going to be put in high leverage situations.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't agree on Hernandez
Guy needs to get some work in at Durham. I was only looking at players who were doing relief in Durham, and Price since he did a bit of relief last year. But yeah I completely wiffed on Thayer. He’d be a decent choice too.
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Balfour wasn't a sexy name when he came up last year
He was a better alternative that SCOTT DOHBERMANNNNNN, but we didn’t know what to expect.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 15, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
OMG BRING UP HIS FAT OFT INJURED ASS RIGHT NOW
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I said to my buddy after we tied the game up
that if this game turns into a bullpen game we’ll win no question.
Then Wheeler poops all over himself on the mound.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 15, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions
Keep a very close eye on Chad Orvella
the Balfour of 2009
Good analogy!
2 years of injury, poor results in limited majors action in prior few years, cleared waivers prior to season.
Lot of coincidences – but they’re still coincidences until he delivers.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
This really would be more appropriate with a 'buttsecks?' caption.
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His line looked very good last night.
I’d be interested to see his velocity readings. He hasn’t been the same since Maddon and Butcher changed his mechanics. Maybe he’s figured something out.
Tools Whore
The bullpen has been a concern
I for one don’t excuse a reliever, Balfour and Cormier, who come into blow out game sand still can’t throw a strike
That drives me crazy
It seems like the gun in Tampa might also be an issue
MLB Tonight made a comment that Burnett’s readings seemed lower than the batters responses indicated. I don’t recall his average FB velo on Gameday last night – Garza seemed to be 92-93 average, but clearly was also throwing bullets. But a 1-2 mph gun variation would explain a good chunk of the difference being discussed.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions
Gameday has Garza/Burnett sitting around 93/94 and topping out around 95/96.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 15, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
That sounds reasonably accurate
though Burnett topped out at 97 in his prior start.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way
X-Man Nady may have a significant elbow injury – hence his early removal yesterday. MRI today.He had TJ surgery early in career.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
That's bad for everyone else
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 15, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
He has a tear in elbow
Surgery likely, season possibly over.
I know the consensus is Swish is the better saber choice for play based on D and projections, and his play is reinforcing that right now. But the loss of a solid depth piece is a blow nonetheless. Probably gives Melky more chance to redeem himself. Could mean the return of Shelly Duncan as RHBB. Guess we’ll see – but I’d prefer Nady to Shelly any day. Also looks like Ramiro Pena will get some more opportunities at Ransom’s expense – he’s starting today.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Made me chuckle
It’s bad karma to wish injury on your own players, even if they’re sucking.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But Percy has a spine made of Legos
A DL case waiting to happen
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think anybody is wishing injury on Wheeler
It’s speculation that he might be injured because of the drop in his velocity. I personally don’t see anything odd, in his delivery so it might be a strength/conditioning thing; but his velocity dropped quite a bit last year and to see him lobbing fastballs in at 85MPH this year is something quite noteworthy.
I really don’t care either way, after what I saw out of him the 2nd half of last year, I don’t have much tolerance for his failings.
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
Right - wishing isn't exactly the right word.
It was more a suggestion based on some data. Though it doesn’t appear a lot of remorse or sadness would attend such a result, which I can understand after last night and a few others of his more recent outings.
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps his extension
is a blot on the sparkling genius reputation of the Rays FO?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 15, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
At the time he was one of the best relievers on the team
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Apr 15, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait
am I thinking of a different time?
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Apr 15, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He was one of the best relievers in 2007
But that’s because the bullpen was just that bad.
Check out my blog on web development at kericr.wordpress.com
At the time it was well under the going rate for a reliever of his caliber.
This was before the economy collapsed.
Tools Whore
Though it doesn’t appear a lot of remorse or sadness would attend such a result
I’d rather he be hurt than just generally ineffective. I’m sure he feels the same.
This. If he just sucks just because then that's really bad for the team
because he has another year under contract. If it is an injury then hopefully it can be corrected and he can be effective.
I’ve asked around about what type of injury could cause you to have your release go up and velocity go down and it looks like it points back to an elbow injury. Again we’re just speculating and it could be nothing, but either way if he’s throwing 85 hurt or 85 healthy that’s not good.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we please...
Send Wheeler away? He costs too much, he is over rated, he has trade value, and we have young replacements in the wings down on the farm.
This makes sense! When will it happen?
Thomas E Gemkow
www.tampabayraysfan.com
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