Andy Sonnanstine & Joe Nelson Pitch Well In Loss To Yankees
For the second straight night there was some really good pitching from the Rays starter. For the second straight night the offense failed to do much damage and a "trusted" "veteran" "proven" reliever flushed that good pitching down the drain. While Andy Sonnanstine wasn't as good as Matt Garza yesterday, he was good enough. And if you combine his effort with Joe Nelson's you can't really ask for more than what they gave you tonight.
Sonnanstine, like Shields before him, rebounded in his second start from just an awful 2009 debut. While Sonny was "hittable" in his first appearance (4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER), the biggest concern for me was his control. He walked four batters in his first start in Baltimore which is the most we've seen from Sonny since...ever. Tonight, we saw a much different pitcher from the start. Sonny retired the first inning side on 15 pitches (10 strikes) and had a much more Sonny like three strikeouts to one walk in five innings of work.
Unlike his first start which featured three main pitches: cutter, curveball, slider, Sonny used all five of his pitches this evening. While most of his work came off of the cutter, he used his secondary pitches in unison. Here is the breakdown with usage percentage and average velocity:
|
Pitch |
% |
MPH |
|
Cutter |
42 |
86 |
|
Curveball |
19 |
73 |
|
Slider |
14 |
82 |
|
FourSeam |
14 |
86.5 |
|
Changeup |
10 |
83.6 |
Those five pitches landed for a strike 51 of the 78 times Sonnantine threw a pitch or 65%. So why was Sonnanstine lifted after five innings with a 3-2 lead and just 78 pitches? At first, I didn't see why and even now while I understand the reasoning behind it, I'm still not sure it was the right move. However, we didn't know Troy Percival was going to suck either back in the fifth inning when the move was made (Ok, maybe we all did).
In a one run game, the Yankees were set to send three straight switch hitters to the plate in the sixth inning: Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada. Rather than putting Sonny out there against the three batting left handed, Maddon played the odds and summoned right hander Joe Nelson from the pen. Before we get into the results, I just want to talk about Nelson for a minute.
When the Rays signed Nelson this off-season, I was excited about adding a quality arm for below market value. Even while Nelson struggled during Spring Training and people were calling for his head, I still felt good about the signing and even had to defend Nelson in a few articles. Now we are two weeks into the season, and it's hard for me to name another Rays reliever I have more confidence in. Seriously, if you gave me a choice of one Rays reliever vs. the opposing team's three best hitters, I would probably pick Nelson over Balfour or Howell right now. But back to today's game.
Maddon knew that bringing in the right Nelson would keep all three hitters on the left side of the plate. Maddon also knows that while Nelson throws with his right hand, he is also a very effective loogy. Here are his career splits coming into today.
|
Career |
VSRHB |
VS LHB |
|
PA |
271 |
199 |
|
BA |
0.246 |
0.211 |
|
OBP |
0.341 |
0.310 |
|
SLG |
0.440 |
0.304 |
|
OPS |
0.780 |
0.614 |
The Skipper rolled with these odds and it worked out very well. Nelson retired the side on 17 pitches without giving up a hit or a walk. In each of the three at-bats, Nelson got the out using his Vulcan change-up. He would retire the first two batters of the seven innings before walking Hideki Matsui and handing the ball off to Grant Balfour. Small sample size alert, but Nelson has more strikeouts (7) than baserunners(6)in five innings of work.
While the last two days have been disappointing, the Rays at 4-5 are right on pace with the 2008 team that also started out 4-5. So far the Rays have dealt with a lot of inconsistencies that should iron themselves out. However, when you get a combined 12 innings and 4 ER given up by your starters over two nights and lost both games because your "most proven" relievers cough it up, maybe you should start trusting someone else and soon.
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Sonny
I admit should not have been pulled. First instinct says he should have stayed in. If Maddon continues to get pourous results from the leaky pen, then he will dance with devil by asking his starter to get outs he would normally ask his pen to get. You hate to already be counting outs with your bullpen this early in the season.
I am sure some of these guys, like Howell and Balfour to some extent will righten their ships. But its scary you can’t count on anyone to get a critical out. Sure, there will be bad days, but its scary we are 9 games in and the pen has been this ineffective so far.
Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!
I think the move might have been an inning too soon.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 15, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I left the room for a moment, and wondered if Sonny was hurt
4 IP is a lot to ask from any pen
TV Broadcast
said something along the lines of “With Sonny, when the wheels come off, they come off fast.”
Is there statistcal anyway of knowing if this is actually true? Could this be a reason why Maddon didn’t bring him back out for the 6th?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 16, 2009 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Well we all know Sonny has a few bad innings here and there
If you look at his OPS against splits, his worst innings are the fourth and fifth innings and he got through those fine. As for pitch count, his biggest struggles come between pitches 51-75 with his best stuff coming from 76 pitches+. I don’t think this had anything to do with Sonny and innings or pitches, but Maddon playing the matchup game and liking Nelson vs the three switch hitters. That part worked out, but it also made Maddon have to stretch 4 innings out of the pen which means Percival and that is bad.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I know he manager
is aware of some stats, but do you really feel his moves are automatically based on them, or more of a feel/pulse of what’s going on?
PS—i don’t hate on Balfour. I just hate the BB especially in late innings
I think it's both
I think Maddon is very aware of split stats and knows how well Nelson handles LHB. The move seemed to work until the eight inning when things started to fall apart.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
It would have been fine as you suggest one inning later
then you have only the 9th to figure out
Wills and Freed
Were openly critical of Sonny’s removal from the game. In a game like that, I don’t know what is to gain by asking your bullpen to keep the Yankees at bay for 4 innings in a tough game. It’s as almost as if Maddon doesn’t know what he has to work with, which is just as scary as not having personnel to matchup against? Which is worse?
Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!
Let's remember Betancourt and Reyes (Denys)
A bullpen is very fickle, even most GMs admit it to be true
Maddon's reasoning behind it was
That he didn’t want Sonny going through the heart of the Yankees lefty leaning lineup a 3rd time.
So...
He trusts Sonny less than he would another starter, i.e. Garza or Shields going through a lineup a 3rd time? To me, that suggests a lack of confidence, but again, I am not in the decision-making process. Keep on doing that and Maddon will have everyone nitpicking him and thinking his pitchers need to see shrinks!
Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!
Best thing in the whole game
Balfour threw an off-speed pitch for strike 1.
by Lurch's Lobbyists on Apr 15, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions
Note, though, that the 2009 Rays started off the season with a significantly stronger roster than the 2008 Rays did
But it’s silly to worry too much because it’s still only 9 games in. We could have swept this series if a couple things had gone our way (well, basically if our bullpen hadn’t sucked), so whatever…no need to get worried. It’s a long season. The trick is not to overreact…identify if there is a real problem and fix it (like Percy), but don’t go crazy and find problems that aren’t there (like Balfour and JP).
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Apr 15, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions
Yes, the roster is stronger, but everyone in our division has also shown improvement
Aggregate three game score of, what, 20 – 16? So depressing that we lost this series.
The Bullpen
Will decide the season. If Percival is the closer for the year, forget the playoffs. That is obvious, but Howell and Wheeler scare me at this point and I wasn’t expecting that. I have a bad feeling about JP this year. While only nine games into the season, this is a bad omen. Especially since the bullpen was such a strength last year.
uhm... no
If Percival doesn’t get injured and isn’t the closer, he will be a set-up man. Assuming the same production regardless of position in the bullpen then the difference in leverage isn’t going to cost us a playoff bid. So, in fact, it is not obvious. We shouldn’t have to keep harping on small sample size, but it seems that to keep everyone’s sanity we will. When considering the team’s future this year you couldn’t have realistically gone in expecting similar seasons from Howell and Balfour (although little in their numbers indicates regression), so the fact that Howell and Balfour might not combine for a 2.00 FIP shouldn’t be such a surprise. We’ll be fine, regardless.
by Navi's_Navy on Apr 15, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Point Taken
If you are depending on Percival to be even a setup man at this point, then we just disagree. If 2/3 of an inning with two hits and one earned run with the game on the line from your closer/setup man is what you want, then good. I don’t think it will win a championship, but what do I know. You can talk mathmatical equations about sample size until you are blue in the face. I will give you this sample size…Palelbon, Rivera, Percival. You do the math.
by Lithia Rays on Apr 15, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Really though
Percival anywhere in the pen is scary, In 2/3s inning- he gave up two hits and an earned run, demonstrating no control at all in his pitches.
"Yeah, I am not the old annoying guy next door. Heck, I don't even know who i am"
Percival is horrible
He is almost a lock to give up a run or damn close to it every single time out. That is horrible for a high leverage pitcher. Percival either needs to be pitching when we have an 10 run lead or down by 10 runs. He needs to be our Nick Swisher.
The pen
Specifically Percival and Maddon cost us 1 win out of these last 2 games. In the very tight race in the ALE that is significant. The ball will roll our way at some point, but 1 or 2 wins is going to make the difference this year. Why roll the dice with a bad pitcher?
I still don't understand why you pull Balfour...
with a man on second, no outs, and a righty up for the lefty. Balfour has a history of giving up walks, but a walk in that situation isn’t really THAT bad. If he does walk Jeter, then you bring in Howell to face the lefty. That game was just all-around pretty poorly managed.
managers don't win or lose games
players have to make plays
great payers (Jeter) make great plays
A managers job is to put the best players in for each given situation that gives the team the best shot at winning
Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you get unlucky. Over the long run if you consistently put a player in the wrong spot you will get burned and lose games. Percival is a prime example.
Great, i for one think he can help
Andrew knows the regession problem with pens
So nobody wants to hold the offense accountable?
We scored 3 runs yesterday. Last year, we score 3 or more 2/3 of the time. We scored 2 the day before. Last year, we score 2 or more 3/4 of the time. If our absolute advantage over the Yankees is defense with hitting and pitching roughly equal, then we are going to have score more runs. Since when is Brian “Kenny Power” Bruney a f’ing God?
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
Yea the offense sucked, but when Cody Ransom is smashing doubles off your "closer" in the 9th thats a bigger problem.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Clearly, Percy is not, nor will he get, good.
I’m just saying, it should not have been a run game for most of it considering it was 80 YO Pettitte on the mound. I mean shit we had another guy get out on the bases in Michel(le) yesterday. It seems like we have ran into at least one out every single game. That shit has got to stop if you plan on winning. Getting picked off first when you should have no intention of stealing a base is just as costly as giving up a double in the 9th.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
I was close
Run expectancy situation:
Ransom:
If he had got out:
000 1 out expectancy=.27854
With the double:
020 0 Out=1.14955
That double was worth 0.87101 runs over any sort of out
Michelle Tanner:
Getting picked off:
000 1 out = .27854
100 0 out = .90024
Getting picked off cost us 0.6217 runs over staying on that base.
So the double ended up being about a 1/4 of a run more important than being picked off of first, but this is very rudimentary.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
My my math Kapler has cost us 29 runs this season
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

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