Troy Percival Blows....The Game

by Erik Hahmann on Apr 16, 2009 9:34 AM EDT

Who wasn't extremely nervous last night when Troy Percival came into the game? If you have your hand up, you're a liar. When your closer is warming up in the bullpen and everyone bemoans the fact that he's about to enter the game...well that's not good. When Percival started to waddle in from the pen to begin the 9th inning I wrote "game over" to Tommy and RJ, and I can't believe I was alone in that sentiment.

Percival's Release Points:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Look at Percival's release points. They're scattered all over the place. Normally for a good pitcher, or even an average one, all the release points are clustered in the same spot, but Troy Percival doesn't roll like that. It's very difficult to be an effective major league pitcher when you're throwing the junk that Percival is while releasing it from 75 different positions. Not having a set release point is going to mess with your control, and that's exactly what happened last night. Look at the chart below. The balls range from nearly hitting the batter in the face to bouncing in the dirt so far off the plate that Hernandez had to jump two feet to his right to stop it.

Strikezone Plot:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

When he did manage to get the ball over the plate, it wasn't pretty. Cody Ransom laced a double, Jose Molina hit a hard line drive that was luckily right at Willy Aybar, then Jeter and his scrappiness came up with an RBI to put the Yankees ahead.

Percival didn't blow a save yesterday, but he may as well have. Last April, Percival somehow tricked his body into believing it was healthy for a month, then it woke up from its beer fueled coma, realized it was horribly out of shape, and broke down. There's no trickery this season, it's just broken down. At the end of the year the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees are most likely going to be separated by a couple of games at the most. How many more times can the Rays afford to let Percival cost the team wins? As R.J. noted yesterday, the Rays have taken sunk costs with relievers before and it may be time to do it again.

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Comments

I guess having cause for concern

about any other reliever but Percival is not welcome

Trying to be quantitative how much difference is there between a 3.84 FIP and a 3.67?

by Raymondo on Apr 16, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions

Because we could field a team of just draysbay posters and score runs of Percival

He is really that bad.

by matthan on Apr 16, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Howell and Balfour

Howell has had a lot more flyballs than normal, this should revert back to normal soon.

Balfour hasn’ t had as many swinging strikeouts. This is a command issue and could be worked on.

Wheeler and Percival, we’ve been saying this for months. They just aren’t that good. At least the others have hope.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Balfour and Howell have good to great stuff

Wheeler and Percival (mainly) have horrible stuff

Thats just what it comes down to. It doesn’t take a quant to figure that much out. When most of us can sit on the couch and think “wow I can hit that” when Percy or Wheeler groves a 87 or 89 mph meatball right down the middle belt high….then we have a problem. (granted I wouldn’t hit it well, but I wouldn’t even be able to follow Grant or JP, let alone hit them)

by matthan on Apr 16, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm more concerned about percy though...

If wheels can get his stuff back down, he could be OK( keep in mind, i’m saying OK). He has an entire arsenal but does not know how or when to use it, if he can get back to his usual old self.

Now, percy on the other hand- god save him

"Yeah, I am not the old annoying guy next door. Heck, I don't even know who i am"

by 4QB on Apr 16, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

ok, that i'll accept

they do have hope, but their track record of success isn’t that large

i’m hoping for the best

glad to see Izzy accepted a minor league assignment—he’ll help

by Raymondo on Apr 16, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

So does anyone besides me think he'll be released/DL'd in favor of Izzy here soon?

by Vin on Apr 16, 2009 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

Not that I'm convinced it'd be much of an improvement, but who knows?

I really wish we could get this Niemann in late innings experiment going.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2009 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions

There are options

Orvella, Thayer, Izzy and post ASB maybe Morlan

by Raymondo on Apr 16, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

If Jason Isringhausen is the answer

then we’re asking the wrong question

www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Apr 16, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

Al Reyes is available

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

I love that second graph

I lol’d when I saw that green square that almost didn’t even make it onto the image.

It’s pretty sad that Hernandez made “web gems” yesterday.

by steve-o1285 on Apr 16, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

can someone start a petition to cut Percival?

i would love to see any of our minor league relievers in if it meant never having to see him again.

by davidsmarch on Apr 16, 2009 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

Screw petition - I want a Tea Party!

What's on my mind

by Jason Collette on Apr 16, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Tea Bag Percy!

and lower spending on old relievers…

Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/Davis/Hellickson-necessitate a drool cup or a 7 man rotation

by CubFanRaysaddict on Apr 16, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Nothing wrong with old relievers

As long as they’re good at what they do (Shouse).

by steve-o1285 on Apr 16, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

The time has come...

to STOP LETTING IZZY PITCH TO HIGH SCHOOLERS!

Let’s move Wheeler and get Izzy on board, that way if Percival continues to implode, we have options without taking Balfour out of roll.

Thomas E Gemkow
www.tampabayraysfan.com

by tscogemkow on Apr 16, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Wheeler's probably better than Isringhausen.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions

The ship has to be righted.

The BP is costing this team games. Percival cannot be trusted to pitch well because he throws meat. Ditto with Wheelers 88 MPH HR pitch. 2007 started the same way and it never ended. IMO, this is a situation in which the team has to cut ties with Percival. This can still be a championship calibere team, the BP cannot continue to cost this team games.

The time is now! DFA Percie to Puerta Vallarta and have Wheeler on a short leash with his one way ticket to Margaritaville to join him.

by ConnorManning on Apr 16, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

I know anytime I question Maddon and Friedman they make me look stupid

But … Did they even consider keeping EJax for the Bullpen this year?

I know that he would not be a closer but it would allow you to move Balfour to closer and Ejax to middle relief and Howell to high leverage situations.

I think we all can concede that Balfour has the closer mentality and I think he could be the eventual closer.

My feeling would be to give it two weeks to get the BP ironed out. If the problems remain. Then I would DFA/DL Percy and Bring up Price and Move JP to high leverage situations and Balfour to closer.

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions

Joyce is more valuable than Edwin the reliever.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Joyce is more valuable in the Longrun I agree

But … Edwin the Reliever would be more valuable in our pen now than Joyce is in Durham now.

Just my two pennies.

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

And his salary probably would've prevented us from adding Shouse/Cormier/Izzy/whoever.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Or you could just stop using Percy in high leverage situations and roll with

Balfour, Howell, Nelson, Shouse and even bump Cormier up. Use your best relievers when it counts.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't have any confidence in Isringhausen to do a better job than Percival

so to me, it’s six of one, a half-dozen of the other.

I just wonder how much longer the Percival experiment will continue. At what point is it past due?! I would reiterate that we only won the division by TWO games last year.

by yeseggs on Apr 16, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

I agree, people like Izzy because they have heard of him and he makes Bryant Gumbel look like Malcolm X

I would much prefer to wait 2 weeks with this current setup to see who gets back to their mean and who shows themselves out. I also want to see if Orvella can keep up his good start, same with Thayer.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Izzy is basically Percy at this point.

Maybe a few touches better, but yeah, he’s not really going to be the savior, plus he comes off like a douche.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

So you're saying we should think about turning our Percy effigy into an Izzy effigy?

I read you kemosabe

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

At this point I know Percy sucks

While I don’t think Izzy is much of an improvement, he hasn’t sucked yet. I’d rather give him a chance to suck first before putting Percy out there again. But all of this talk isn’t going to change anything. If the Rays have a one run lead tonight you will see Wheeler or Percival out there.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

He has two of the past three seasons.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

The closer role on the Rays will be much like the QB role with the Buccaneers

The most popular guy will always be the backup not the starter. Until the Bucs get a franchise QB and until the Rays get a Rivera,K-Rod,Flapplegums type closer.

I know we don’t have Rivera,K-Rod,Flapplegums type money to spend on a closer but. There is no reason Percy should be earning $4mil a year. That will free up some money after this year when his contract is gone to go get a more decent closer that is at least $4mil worth of closer.

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Not really.

The QB position is actually important, anyone can close as long as they aren’t the worst reliever in your pen. Unfortunately…

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I was only mentioning in terms of popularity amongst the fans lol

I thank Percy for the half season of good service that he gave to the Rays. He had about 28 saves last year.

4mil/28saves=$142,857 per save

Mariano Rivera 15mil/39saves=$384,615 per save

Jonathan Papelbon 750k/41saves=$31,775 per save

Francisco Rodriguez 10mil/62saves=$161,290 per save.

These numbers tell me that Percy was over paid for his production.

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Umm

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yeah?

What does this number tell you?

,,|,,

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 16, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

This doesn't work.

You’re assigning value to a metric with practically zero value in assessing player performance and further you’re assuming they’re all being paid on a scale because of those saves rather than FIP/tRA etc. That’s simply not how it works.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

further you’re assuming they’re all being paid on a scale because of those saves rather than FIP/tRA etc. That’s simply not how it works.

Not sure I totally agree with that RJ.

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Most teams aren't paying on a per-save scale.

The ones that are deserve to lose.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

And honestly I don't even believe this.

I honestly cannot imagine one team in baseball today sitting around and paying on a per save basis. It’s just incomprehensible.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

It is funny to thing about.

My comment was more “ZING!” and less “GOTCHA!”

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

And...

Drop the act, RJ.

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting Considering Pappelbon

2009 Salary $6.75 mil/41 saves from 2008 = $164,634 per save. I am sure the front offices are comparing it considering it is comprable with K-Rod type money.

Before you reply I know what you are gonna say lol…

Something about the Red Sox sucking or ultimately something about Dan Johnson or you pay for what you get. I was just illustrating that Percy was overpaid and underperforming as compared to other closers. And if Money per save isnt a valid stat then why is, money per win when you talk about over all franchise value? Or is one player too small of a sample size?

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

How are win values and saves at all comparable?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/

Go to the bottom and read up. We’re not talking about “Wins” as in “W-L” record. We’re talking about something that actually measures value.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Also teams might not pay per save but agents negotiate contracts that way.

So by proxy they are pretty much paying per/save basis when they agree to terms with a player and the agent.

by PewterPirate55 on Apr 16, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis to the rescue?

If Percy/Izzy combo does not work out, could we see Wade Davis make an appearance in the Rays bullpen prior to the All-Star game?

I am keeping my fingers crossed that Jake McGee will become the dominant closer we have been looking for in 2010 and we will no longer have to audition washed-up 40 somethings!

by Geisdorf on Apr 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

If he does

i want him to be converted back to a starter soon, too much talent to waste by being in the pen.

"Yeah, I am not the old annoying guy next door. Heck, I don't even know who i am"

by 4QB on Apr 16, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree, I was suggesting a temporary role similar to Price’s last year.

by Geisdorf on Apr 16, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

How much blame for this situation (Percy, Wheeler, and Izzy) should we place on the FO?

by plasticman on Apr 16, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

Depends on how long it lasts (unless of course someone improves)

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 16, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The same amount of blame they get for Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Garza, ect.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

This can all be solved very easily.

DFA Percival. DFA Wheeler. Let them fly and be free or whatever.

Bring up Price and Joyce. Move Niemann to the pen, Price as the #5. Move Gross to the pen. Right Fielders with four letters in their first name make excellent relievers. (See: Ankiel, Rick and Swisher, Nick) Move Joyce to the RF Platoon.

GENIUS! I’ll be waiting for your call so you can obtain my resume, RFO.

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 16, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

Izzy is definately not the answer

He should have been cut loose when he initially said he wouldn’t take a minor league assignment. Him and his agent must now realize that we’re the only suckers willing to put up with his crap and his rag arm.
DFA Percy. I cringe every time I see him warming up that flat, 80 mph fastball in the pen. He brings back bad memories of Roberto Hernandez. (at least RM threw harder)
Try to unload Wheeler for a dozen batting practice balls.
Put Niemann in the pen where he won’tt get all freaked out waiting for his next start and bring up Orvella and Thayer

by 13frain on Apr 16, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions