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Series Preview: 4/16-4/19 Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays

4/16/09 Jeff Niemann vs. John Danks 7:08(FS-F)

4/17/09 James Shields vs. Bartolo Colon 7:38(SS)

4/18/09 Scott Kazmir vs. Mark Buerhle 7:08(FS-F)

4/19/09 Matt Garza vs. Gavin Floyd 1:38(SS)

After dropping two of the first three at home, the Rays are 4-5 which mirrors the 2008 season. So far 2009 is not > than 2008, but =. The Rays will host the Chicago White Sox in a four game weekend set. Tampa Bay eliminated Chicago in four games in last years ALDS.

Star-divide

John Danks is one of the most underrated young lefties in the game. He just celebrated his 24th birthday and is looking to post back to back sub 3.5 FIP seasons. He doesn’t over power you, but uses all four of his pitches (fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup) and usually had good control of all four. This year due to an increase in curveballs, Danks had been pounding the ground ball (62.5%). If that continues, he will only become a better more valuable pitcher. It seems to me like the Danks is a younger version Mark Buerhle.

A former Cy Young Award winner, Colon is on his second tour of duty with the White Sox. Health has been the biggest concern for Colon over the past few seasons, however, if 100%, there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t be a league average number four starter or even better. He has lost a few ticks on his fastball and has completely scrapped his curveball. He uses a slider and a changeup now as his secondary pitches, but likes to throw the fastball a lot.

It’s hard to believe the Buerhle just turned 30 years old less than a month ago. Over the past eight seasons it's hard to find a pitcher more consistent and durable than Buehrle. He has pitched 1,797 innings since 2001. He has pitched more than 201 innings in each of his eight full big league seasons and has been able to maintain an above average ERA/FIP throughout. He continues to use the same combination of pitches(fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup) and gets a good number of ground balls. It seems the only thing that is going to stop him from pitching for the next 5-7 years is himself as he has already expressed some interest in early retirement. My only regret is his matchup won’t be against Andy Sonnanstine as the two have competed in some of the quickest matchups we’ve seen.

Rounding out the four game set is Gavin Floyd. I know Floyd won 17 games last year, but to me it was very similar to the 14 wins by Edwin Jackson. There was nothing in Floyd’s peripheral stats to suggest breakout and so far in 2009 we’ve seen the regression back to the Floyd of old. Like many of the other White Sox starters, Floyd has multiple pitches and uses them all. Living mainly of a fastball, slider and curveball, he will mix in a good number of changeups to keep the hitters off balance. Also similar to Jackson, Floyd has the ability to be great in any start, but also has the tendency to not follow through on that ability.

Lineup

C A.J. Pierzynski

1B Paul Konerko

2B Chris Getz

SS Alexei Ramirez

3B Josh Fields

LF Carlos Quentin

CF Brian Anderson

RF Jermaine Dye

DH Jim Thome

For the past couple of seasons there seems to be 4-5 names you could plug in the White Sox everyday lineup: Pierzynski, Konerko, Dye, Thome and now Carlos Quentin. Quentin was my favorite to win AL MVP before injury cut his season short. So far, Quentin is back on the MVP pace and has improved his batting eye(lower O-swing% and higher BB%). Alexei Ramirez finished second to Evan Longoria in the 2008 Rookie of the year and highlights a change in the Sox infield. Ramirez has now shifted full-time to shortstop with Chris Getz taking over at second base. Josh Fields finally has an opportunity at third base with Joe Crede in Minnesota. Centerfield is a mess: Brian Anderson, Dewayne Wise, Jerry Owens and now Scott Podsednik? Some where Jim Edmonds wonders what he has to do to get a job.

0 recs  |  Comment 20 comments |

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This Sox team is pretty bad.

I like the matchups for the most part, but Niemann gets stuck pitching against another team’s best pitcher. I don’t want to get greedy saying that we should take 3 out of 4, but we really should.

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thought the same.

Danks is really good and Buerhle is too, but I like the Kaz/Buerhle match up in our favor. Friday and Monday favor the Rays on paper. 2-2 is good, but at home I think 3 out of 4 should be the goal.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just visiting

“This Sox team is pretty bad.”

I always get a kick out of these type of posts. Please explain? I’m curious.

Its a decent review and I obviously don’t expect specifics as its not your team to cover but you are wrong about Floyd. Or shall I say extreme. Cheat at SSS did a pretty in depth review of Floyd’s final 24 starts that showed pretty good peripheral stats to end the season (past the extreme lucky beginning). This pretty much continued in the spring and his 1st start. He had very poor 2nd start in the dreadful weather on Detroit (no feel for his curve) but he will outperform all the projection systems . No he won’t be sub 4.00 (too many hrs), but he also won’t be regressing to any of the 5 plus eras I’ve seen.

The team will score runs. And they probably lucked out with the Wise injury because B Anderson is by far the teams best OF defender and needs to make up ground for the corners.

They aren’t sexy but far from “pretty bad”

The Sox issue will be as it is every year health. If healthy (something the medical staff does a good job with) they’ll easily compete in the Central. And with 4 plus throwers in the bullpen this season will probably shape up providing a certain amount of egg on the generic prediction – statements the team is used to hearing, especially in the saber community.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Floyd piece

If interested here it is.
http://www.southsidesox.com/2009/3/3/776970/building-a-better-projecti

By the way. I think your site does a pretty good job.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey thank you for making rational, backed up opinions

welcome, just don’t bait the savages aka if you’re going to say something ill informed, make sure you go way overboard i.e. Jim Thome once hit a ball that never landed, Mark Buerhle needs to speed up his pitches, Jermaine Dye is a helluva defender. Stop on by the GDT if you enjoy give and take and have a thick skin

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess old and in decline would be a better description.

That lineup doesn’t scare anyone at this point, they are bad defensively, and the starting pitching is pretty “meh” behind Danks and Buerhle. Granted they could win the AL Central, but I don’t really think that’s saying a whole lot.

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

6th in MLB in runs last year, 5th in AL.

every year we read about how thome, dye, etc. are going to fall off a cliff. maybe this is the year. gotta be right sometime.

by larry on Apr 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay you kind of illustrate my point

So they aren’t as good as the Yanks, Bosox and Rays. So what? That’s a long way from a statement they are pretty bad. You want to pin your assessment on health, well that’s logical but you still take a chance.

This notion of a bad offense, where does it come from? And if the lineup doesn’t scare you what does? Should everything be Texas, the Yanks or bust?

Defense we don’t know what to expect. Ramirez appears to be as good as advertised at short so far (his natural position and its early). Fields is a far cry from Crede but does seem to have improved a little and will make up a bit with a better bat. Getz is an avg to above avg defender at 2b. I spoke earlier about the OF and the blessing of the Wise injury. Dye is brutal in RF and Q should improve a bit but the one thing the Sox realized some time ago is by playing half the games in the Cell the overall effect is not as devastating.

The bullpen will rank towards the top.

Your definition of the team’s starting just described over half of MLB and that’s the pessimistic view. If the team gets a combined 34 starts from Contreras/Colon they are probably in good shape.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

Yeah I felt like it was the classic everyone is dumb compared to Einstein.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So where would you put them in the AL?

Closer to 5th best or closer to 10th? I’d put them a lot closer to 10 than 5. Granted a lot of that is my assumption that Konerko is done, and Thome and Dye aren’t long for this world. I could just be jaded (as larry says) by seeing too much Red Sox/Yanks/Rays.

Also, I think my original comment was related to their teams of the past. As in compared to recent 90+ win teams they are pretty bad.

by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They will finish closer to 5

Scoring runs will not be this team’s problem. They will hit a lot of homers as usual, especially when the weather warms up. Konerko will probably see an uptick. He battled an abdominal injury the first half but opsed .910 the 2nd half. Nothing out of this world but somewhere in the .840-.860 range.

There are legit questions on Q and his wrist but early on so far he’s answered them. Fields should counter one of the sluggers on the way down. How far down? Who knows? As Larry pointed out its been predicted a huge demise is coming for a little while now. The Sox medical staff is outstanding.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

About Floyd

I don’t think he’s bad, I just know a lot of of people see 17 wins and think OMG breakout. Floyd is a good middle of the rotation guy provided he can pitch like the second half of 2008 where his walks were down and his K’s were up. He just needs to show more consistency. The HR/9 are a problem, but I think the key for him will be the walks. Keep the walks down and you’re good.

Like Sandy said, good job of bringing some substance to the argument instead of just saying Gavin Floyd rocks!

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No I agree.

Personally I think he can and will be a good 3 that dominates on occasion. But again its all about the walks. He has to stay under 3 per 9. The homers aren’t going away especially in the cell.

I just wanted to point out some flaws in many of the cookie cutter predictions on Floyd and what’s expected.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Apr 16, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Rev is not amused

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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