Who Is This Guy?
by rglass44 on Apr 16, 2009 2:09 PM EDT
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via mlb.mlb.com
That, my friends, is Dale Thayer. The career minor league closer is looking more and more like a possible solution to some of our bullpen woes. The RHP has been a closer for the majority of his professional career. He has been a reliever the entire time having never started a game. He has had success at every level.
After signing as an undrafted free-agent out of Chico State by the Padres in 2003, Thayer started at the Padres A-ball affiliate in the Midwest league. He began racking the saves up there (25). He went to pitch in A+ and AA in 2004 and collected 23 more saves (all at A+). Since then he has continued to have success using a low-nineties fastball, slider, curve, and change to some impressive totals. Here are some key statistics by level:
| Year | Seasons | W | L | G | SV | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | FIP |
| Total | 6 | 26 | 15 | 325 | 132 | 373.1 | 2.34 | 1.173 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 3 | 9.4 | 3.16 | 2.66 |
| AA | 4 | 20 | 10 | 168 | 75 | 189.2 | 2.42 | 1.244 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 8.4 | 2.57 | 3.22 |
| AAA | 3 | 3 | 1 | 62 | 9 | 80.2 | 2.79 | 1.351 | 8.9 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 9.9 | 3.07 | 2.51 |
| A | 1 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 25 | 48 | 2.06 | 0.958 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 13.5 | 4.8 | 1.62 |
| A+ | 1 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 23 | 55 | 1.64 | 0.855 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 8.8 | 4.91 | 1.84 |
Last year in Durham, Thayer had a spectacular year. His FIP was slightly lower than his ERA (2.56 to 2.77) likely due to a high BABIP (.353). The following table shows what he has done in some important metrics since joining the Rays in 2006.
| Year | Level | IP | FIP | tRA | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | FB% | LD% | SwSt% |
| 2006 (total) | AA/AAA | 69.6 | 3.41 | - | 7.88 | 2.97 | 45.0% | 38.0% | 16.0% | - |
|
2007 |
AA | 62.3 | 3.56 | 3.57 | 8.09 | 2.89 | 40.0% | 43.6% | 16.4% | - |
|
2007 |
AAA | 11.6 | 2.83 | 1.28 | 6.94 | 3.09 | 45.9% | 37.8% | 16.2% | 8.4% |
|
2008 |
AAA | 68.3 | 2.56 | 2.82 | 9.75 | 3.16 | 44.6% | 36.9% | 16.9% | 11.5% |
| Since 06 | AA/AAA | 271 | 3.27 | - | 8.6 | 3.19 | 44.7% | 38.9% | 15.5% | - |
Lastly, what does Thayer project to do in the Rays bullpen this year? Let's take a look at his MLEs from the last two years courtesy of minorleaguesplits.com.
| MLE | IP | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 |
| 2007 | 73.3 | 4.57 | 6.01 | 4.3 | 0.74 |
| 2008 | 67.7 | 3.57 | 8.24 | 4.26 | 0.4 |
Looking at his year last year, his FIP would have been good for 4th best on the team behind Balfour, Niemann, and Miller. If he can come close to that, say a 4 FIP, then he could be around the fifth or sixth best arm in the bullpen. While he may not be the closer of the future, Dale Thayer could certainly offer some additional bullpen help and would almost certainly be an upgrade over Wheeler and Percival.
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Look at that beard, that grin, the way his eyes shimmer
This guy could be Peter King’s favorite reliever. Future land baron, IMO.
My buddy was once driven to the airport by Gabe Kapler and said
It was one of the all time most hectic experiences of his life.
Also, the coffee at Ferg’s is more like coffee-flavored water.
Fergs – you need to step it up.
This leads to the question of:
Why the hell are you drinking coffee at Ferg’s in the first place?
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base."
~Dave Barry
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 16, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I've never been all that impressed with Fergs
I was especially unhappy last year for the beginning of the year series they had a Rays watch party with a reserved room. Good, except when they decided they needed to change one of the tv’s to the Red Sox game to appease one of the fans sitting there, rather than asking him to choose a non-reserved room.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 16, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
He looks like a 1/2 Zobrist 1/2 Percival
That way he can be a warrior and love Jesus.
by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 16, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
said this last year,
i still have no idea why he hasn’t gotten a serious look…
RJ, i’m waiting to hear “he has mediocre stuff…”
David, I'm waiting to hear "R.J. has since taken this back since seeing his swinging strike rates."
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry buddy,
i must have missed that post. unfortunately i don’t get around to reading everything that is said on this site, if you’ve said that, i apologize.
Call him up
Put Wheels or Percy on the DL. If neither will go on the DL with an “injury” then DFA Percy.
I can not tell you how long I looked for a decent scouting report.
I found one from like 4 years ago talking about his “power fastball” and his need to develop his slider.
I was just hoping for something.
Nobody every talks about this guy.
Lemme see if I can’t dig someone up for info.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I emailed a guy that I know through the WF message board.
That happens work for the Bulls grounds crew for info. Hopefully he’ll get back to me soon.
Texts/emails sent. We'll see what this nets.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember watching Thayer at a spring exhibition at the Trop
Fastball was 88-91, but I don’t remember much about secondary stuff. Like R.J., I’ve sent out a few feelers to get more info on his stuff.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
IIRC
He was higher than that at the AAA all-star game last year. I remember being surprised when people told me how high his gun readings were, because I’d always thought he was a high 80’s/low 90’s guy.
Whatever he does, it seems to work though. I’d be all for giving him a shot, should the opportunity arise. Obviously the FO sees something in him, or they wouldn’t have put a late-20’s career minor leaguer on the 40-man roster.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Ok just talked to someone with a respected opinion in the world of prospects
Said Thayer’s slider is “a true plus pitch” but the the fastball velocity is “fringy.”
Nobody is expecting Thayer to come up here and be the bullpen savior, but the more we talk about it and the more I hear from others, it seems like it’s worth a shot at least. Worst case scenario is he’s as effective as Percival which puts us back in this situation.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Im assuming thats about right.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
same results as percival
but at a lower cost. do it
At least with Thayer there's no ego or demands to worry about.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
less weight on team plane
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really a lower cost
We have to pay Percival either way. But the fact that we would need to pay Thayer an extra $280k shouldn’t be the deciding factor either.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Yeah but is he hittable?
I’m all for this
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
So you're saying that Dale Thayer could have 13 wins before the year is over
DO THIS NAO
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
16% LD rate isn’t anything special, career BABIP is above average (but he has had a couple where it’s well below average, so could just be luck), seems to have gotten lucky with his HR/F% last year at least. Good news though is no significant split between righties and lefties.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Let's just put it this way
I wouldn’t bank on him having major league stuff until he actually gets an extended shot in the majors. Very easily could be a AAAA type.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
So could have been Lou Gehrig if Wally Pipp didn't take himself out of the lineup for being hungover.
I like the 3BB/9, because frankly, I’m sick of seeing our one guy that can throw over 90 miss the plate constantly. If he gets hit, that’s why we have some good defenders out there.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
obtw don't call me out for comparing thayer to gehrig
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 16, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said, extended shot
I mean larger than SSS. But it will take some convincing to tell me there isn’t such thing as a AAAA type. There are way too many guys who are successful in the minors who don’t have success in the majors, and what almost all of those pitchers have in common is low velocity and what almost all of those hitters have in common is slow batspeed. Sure, there are guys with low velocity or slow batspeed who still succeed in the majors, but it’s just less likely than someone who has minor league success but had a mid-90’s fastball or good batspeed.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
OT, What about Orvella
He’s healthy again pitching in Durham. At one point he was considered our future closer. Any idea if he could get added to the 40 man roster and make his way up to the majors this year?
I'd rather give Thayer a first shot at the majors then give Orvella a 5th or 6th chance.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Orvella has always had good stuff
he just has never been able to keep it together mentally at the ML level. Guy has one of the better change-ups I’ve seen of guys that have come through Durham.
thursday avo prose
finally a win for Cliff Lee,
yanks pen can suck my d
by daveh33 on Apr 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Trading for Marte and Nady...not looking so good now.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on Apr 16, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I plan on going to the three game set
Durham begins tomorrow in Charlotte. I’ll drop a note on here with my thoughts regarding how he looks. Should get to see Davis start tomorrow night as well.
THAYERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRr
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
I've been on the Thayer band wagon since last season
I’ve seen him pitch a bunch of times in Durham and while he doesn’t have electric stuff he has good movement and works the corners really well. Not to mention he can grow the handlebars with the best of them. If I remember right (haven’t seen him this year) but last year he could touch 93-95 but sat around 91. He also has a real good slider that is nearly impossible to hit from the right side if he is locating it.
Spring Training
Thayer’s fastball is low 90’s, but lacks much movement at top speed.and the slider is his best pitch.
In Spring Training he got a couple looks in Rays games and was less than impressive, in some of the minor league games he looked better. Last year the Durham Bulls had Scott Dohman as a closer ahead of Thayer, if that tells anything. Maybe a AAA ceiling…
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