Scott Kazmir Is Good, Matt Garza is Great and The Rest of The Rays Rotation Through Two Turns

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 12:30 PM EDT

While it isn't a large sample size, we can take a quick look at some trends over the first 10 games or two starts per starter.

Scott Kazmir is back. Or at least it looks like Kaz is back. He is throwing the slider 23.1% of the time which is the highest since 2006. With slider now back, Kaz has become more of a groundball pitcher. After experiencing a huge jump to 48.9% flyballs (sans slider) in 2008, Kaz is now back to normal with 40.5% groundballs and 37.8% flyballs. Also he is throwing more first pitch strikes than ever which have led to two effectively efficient outings.

James Shields is getting better. After a disaster in the opener, Shields was much better in his seven innings of shutout baseball in Baltimore. Shields still doesn't have his good control yet as you can see with his poor 1.25 K/BB. While the walks were down in the second start, the strikeouts haven't been there yet. He has just five on the season and is going to need to get that up to have the same success of past seasons. One explanation could be an increase in breaking balls. Shields is throwing more sliders than ever and has increased his curveball usage. It's helping in the ground ball area and could help in the K/BB and K/9 once he gets a better feel for them.

Matt Garza. THIS IS GARZA or at least what I expected from Garza; lots of strikeouts. In fact one per inning (14 K in 14 IP) this makes for a nice round 9.0 K/9. His walks are slightly up, but the increase in K's makes up for the increase in free passes. Usage wise, he's actually throwing less fastballs with more sliders and a lot more curveballs. I pegged Garza as a breakout candidate in 2009 and so far so good.

Andy Sonnanstine is a lot like James Shields. They need control more than their stuff and like Shields, Sonny improved from start to start. He has almost gone exclusively to a cut fastball and is throwing more curves and less sliders than normal. This has made him more of a flyball pitcher which is not really a good thing for him. As the control comes back, he will need to have command of his pitches low in the zone to induce more grounders. As for the changeup we all heard about during the spring? Sonny has definitely used it more; 0.6% more to be correct. Big change.

Not going to get much into Jeff Niemann as I broke his stuff down earlier this morning, but Niemann has been a normal fifth starter. As for the future, a 95 mph heater with a good curve out of the bullpen may seriously be the answer for Niemann long term and the Rays early season bullpen woes.

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One thing to note:

Kaz’s Ks are down so far from good Kaz, but that could be part of a concerted effort to throw less pitches and rely more on the defense. If Kaz could maintain his current control and revert to K’ing guys left and right we may have a CY candidate on our hands.

by rglass44 on Apr 17, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

His swinging strike rates is sub-6%.

That’ll perk back up soon enough I think.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

He should almost double that soon which will make him even better

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I love the 7/10 QS

(should be 8-Maddon)

this will save the bullpen and end up as a positive

by Raymondo on Apr 17, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

Kazmir and Garza, then off come the wheels?

AC/DC + Tampa Bay Rays = Big Balls on a Budget

by Orlando Rays on Apr 17, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

Not at all. They've just had two great starts a piece. In fact the second go-round of the rotation was fantastic.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

sucks we only went 2-3

by Sveet on Apr 17, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

31 innings from the starters in last five starts and only nine earned runs given up

and yet like you said 2-3.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yes, we all know what the problem is.

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

More cowbell

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

and the main reason why I can't stand it is because its so obvious.

yes dropping Percival and Wheeler wastes money, but keeping them is costing us more. If we miss out on the playoffs by 1 or 2 games, I’m looking at the FO. and flipping the bird, and asking if it was worth keeping the fatasses because of their contracts, which are the FO’s fault in the first place. It’s one thing to make a mistake, and it becomes another thing to keep running with the mistake

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Percival's only been worth -0.2 wins thus far.

Of course that will change with time, but last year he was worth -0.7 wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

so are you saying we've been "unlucky"

or that you want to keep percival til we can get something for him?

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

No he's saying he sucks now and will continue to suck

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

What?

I just said this two days ago:

And then there’s Percival. I’ve been fine with giving him another shot. The injuries, it was probably the injuries last year. Well, either he’s still hurt and lying to everyone, or he’s just toast. The sample size is still too small to say with any certainty, but yet again he showed next to no control over any of his pitches. Two of his three curveballs land up and in to righties, the other was fielded by Michel Hernandez after a bounce. His low-90s fastball was thrown mostly down the middle. The thing is, his fastball still has some movement, in to righties, so if he’s trying to run it in to righties – despite being what the break indicates he should be doing – then he’s lost control of the pitch, that or he can’t aim for the outer corner.

Honestly, the upside here is limited. Percival’s been over replacement level two of his last five seasons. Projecting a 4.9 FIP going forward puts him above replacement level, and honestly we have the talent in the Triple-A bullpen to replace Percival’s performance and even upgrade it. Percival seems entrenched in the closer role despite being Todd Jones at this point, and that’s reason enough to want a replacement reliever. At least if it’s a non-Jason Istringhausen type, he can be pushed and pulled to the extent of his performance and not to the extent of his relationship with the manager.

Percival should not be in the game during high leverage situations but that seems unfeasible given the circumstances. That means either he needs to go on the DL, out the door, or to the back of the pen. The organization has shown a willingness to accept sunk costs in the past, with Dan Miceli, Shinji Mori, and Chad Harville. It may be time to eat another one.

If you’re looking for someone to replace, it’s Percival. If you’re looking for a way to replace them, do not look towards trading an asset like one of the young starters. Relievers are highly fungible. Odds are, who we have the same odds of working out as those in other organizations. Also don’t consider moving David Price or Wade Davis to the pen. Both are far to valuable to the franchise’s future to consider advancing (and shifting them to the bullpen) for minimal gains this season.

This is a matter of construction as much as personnel. The Rays seem to have five relievers who will be fine, Wheeler who could be useful when avoiding high-leverage situations, and Percival. Ultimately people are going to freak out because of those two, but honestly the situation is far from being that dire. This is the problem with establishing roles and signing players with those roles emphasized. Percival is the weakest pitcher on staff and yet has the highest leveraged job. That’s not a good combination, and it needs to be fixed.

You can play the results based analysis game all you want concerning Percival’s save success rate, but eventually the processes are going to bite the team in the ass.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

so none of you has Friedman on speed dial?

i just want this addressed .

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I am confused here.

What’s with the “only.” He has literally cost us one game as well, which is far more important.

by rglass44 on Apr 17, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

It's called sarcasm.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

ok

by daveh33 on Apr 17, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh

That’s what confused me.

by rglass44 on Apr 17, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Apparently italics do not work in headers.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not too concerned about what a formula says...

We would have won at least 1 of the 2 games on Tuesday/Wednesday on average if we had thrown a competent pitcher out there instead of Wheeler and Percival. It most definitely cost us 1 win on average. Maybe a tad bit less but very close to 1 win.

So keeping Wheeler/Percy has already been costly in terms of wins and losses and its been a week and a half. How many losses do they have to cause?

by matthan on Apr 17, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm glad you have a crystal ball.

Aren’t you the same person who said managers can affect teams by 10+ wins a year? Because if so, I think I’ll side with the formula.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Did you really not watch the games on Tuesday/Wednesday?

by matthan on Apr 17, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Your excel sheet must be wrong....

Tuesday:

Top of the 9th. Yankees up by 1. Both teams have 3 outs remaining

Wednesday:

Top of the 9th. Tied game. Yankees have 2 outs remaining, Rays have 3 outs remaining.

Rays are at home both games…

You are absolutely DREAMING if you do not think the Rays should win at least something extremely close to 1 of those games. That just defies all sorts of logic.

Unless of course you think the Yankees are that much better than the Rays to make up for the relative evenness of both scenarios.

by matthan on Apr 17, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

As much as I hate Percy right now

There has to be some blame put on the offense for scoring a combined five runs in those two games.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

He doesn't have any more losses to hand out, Percy ate them all.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Excel sheet jokes, nice.

How much of a “loss” did Howell get on those days? What about Aki? Crawford? Navarro? Seriously, you’re giving an entire loss for an inning of work? How many losses did Niemann get for his Baltimore start? What about Balfour for his Baltimore outing? Or do you only credit wins/losses when the team wins/loses in the same game? If the Rays win that game Percy blows in, does he still get a loss?

Look, you can do this and give your opinion on it and I’m probably not going to say anything because debating this stuff non-stop is a waste of your and my time, but starting a comment off with “I don’t really care what a formula says” when the reply wasn’t to you, nor was it a shot at anyone, on this site of all places, is pretty silly.

I’m going to stick with something that is constant and unbiased in its product.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

And holy crap you actually have me defending Percival.

Goddammit.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Well to be fair I am bunching in Wheeler also

And of course other players deserve some blame.

Also you are looking at the whole game while I am looking at the point where the pitchers entered. The way I see it in this scenario is that our team (the good and the bad) got us to a point where we should have won one of those two games. Of course our other guys could have played better. But Wheeler entering in the 9th and Percival with 1 out in the 9th both had a very good opportunity to lead us to victory. They didn’t. On Wednesday I see it as nearly every other person in our bullpen and in AAA would have gotten us to at least the 10th inning. To me that is costing the Rays a win.

Obviously your formula is measuring something totally different while from my pointo of view the game essentially became just 2 outs instead of 27…so I probably shouldn’t have even commented.

by matthan on Apr 17, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Nobody should argue that Wheeler/Percy should be in those spots.

But arguing that the loss is entirely on them is harsh. They obviously contributed to the loss in a huge way though.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 17, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

So

if it’s the 8th inning and CC, Los and Evan K with the base loaded, but we go into the 9th tied at 3-3 and the other team scores a run, then it’s the pitchers fault we lost? I mean yes he did give up the run and that sucks, but we just forget everything up to that point and say here this one’s on you?

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 17, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course not

That wasn’t what I was saying either. In a way we are just arguing semantics. For any win/loss metric that you is quantifiable you obviously have to account for all 9 innings.

Obviously you guys are looking at all 9 innings with your metric. That is fine and extremely valuable. I use it also. I’m looking more at the specific moment where the game is on the line and whether the team wins or losses is on your shoulders. Well what happens? Does the team win or lose? If the team wins that doesn’t mean you assign the whole “win” to the player and the same if the team losses.

To me it is similar to taking the last shot in basketball with your team down 1. Of course many other things contributed to that score at that given moment. But it is still up to that player to deliver.

Hopefully that makes sense. We really are talking about two different things.

by matthan on Apr 17, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions