Tampa Bay Rays' Attendance: Why Not to Worry, Part 1

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 19, 2009 8:00 AM EDT Comment 13 comments

Do they look worried about attendance?. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

So we only have a few home games worth of attendance figures to go with, but I'm anxious to do some analyzing. Here are our home attendance figures as of Friday morning:

Day	Opp.	Attendance
M	NYY	36,973
T	NYY	36,973
W	NYY	25,171
Th	CHW	13,803

What I'm sure jumps out to most people is the attendance for the Thursday night game. I'm sure everyone expected us to sell out the first two games of the season and Wednesday night's showing against the Yankees was actually quite promising (we drew very similarly against the Yankees on a Wednesday last September). However, last night looks quite scary at first glance. I'm here to tell you, though, don't worry and here's why:

There are three main reasons we shouldn't get too upset about last night's attendance figures: the day of the game, our opponent, and fluctuation around the mean. As I mentioned in my last article about attendance, Thursday are historically the Rays' worst day of the week in terms of attendance figures, coming in at (on average) 11% under the daily attendance figure for any given year. Like I said in that article, though, this number simply explains what has happened in the past and can't be used to make predictions. For example, if we tried using Thursday's game to make a prediction, then our average attendance per game this year would project to around 15,500, which we know is not going to be the case. But the fact the we typically see the lowest attendance figures of the week on Thursdays is something to keep in mind.

Also, for some reason, we've never drawn very well when playing the White Sox. Small sample size alert, but over the last three seasons, here's what our home attendance figures against the White Sox have been:

	CHW	Year	%
2006	15279	16,901	-14%
2007	11614	17,131	-32%
2008	19327	22,370	-10%

In the first column is our average daily attendance for the year when facing the White Sox, in the second column is the average daily attendance for that entire year, and the third column is how much lower than average our attendance against the White Sox was for that year. As you can see, we've always drawn rather poorly against them, which could partially be because most of those games happened in the middle of the week and we only play them at home for one or two series a year. Even if those variables play into it, though, they're not a team that tends to draw well.

Coming next, I'll delve into the third and most important reason why we should not be concerned. For a sneak preview, check out this.

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Last two...

Friday 28, 927 & Saturday 31, 916

The second and third levels looked to be pretty much sold out, the empty seats were the in the 126-133 sectionsdown the foul lines. So the cheaper seats are going for the weekend games, but the more expensive are not, which could at least partially be due to the economic downturn.

by Doyouseeit? on Apr 19, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good analysis...

My first thought watching Thursday’s game was “ugh!” But if it’s not off the norm then I guess it’s not too much to worry about.

Right on about the Thursday thing. I think about in terms of myself. If I could pick between that day and a Friday or Saturday game, I would never pick the Thursday game. Having work the next day and the fact that I have a pretty substantial drive to the Trop, means Thursday would almost always be out of the question.

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by The Bull Gator on Apr 19, 2009 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad the fans bounced back Friday and Saturday...

But the showing on Thursday was embarrassing. There is no staitistical analysis around it. A World Series team in it’s 4th home game of the year should not draw under 14,000….especially as inexpensive as these games are.

by td32 on Apr 19, 2009 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

13K is unacceptable in any MLB park

As Stu says, if the Rays are in the race in SEP, let that be the barometer

by Raymondo on Apr 19, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Shouldn’t be that low for ANY reason at ANY time. Not in this climate or even a good climate. I think the fans are front runners and the pennant race will be the ultimate barometer of how the Rays will finish, attendance-wise.

That was completely unacceptable attendance for Thursday. We’ll see what happens down the line here, but I am not going to buy that rationale, necessarily. When I go down to the Trop, I like to be down near the foulpoles too. In my estimation, some of the seats are too expensive, but that is just me talking. Its going to be give and take all year.

Put Tampa Bay back on our road uniforms!!

by joedobr on Apr 19, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In response to the three above comments,

Please read my Part 2 of this series tonight. 13K is going to happen and it’s going to happen a good amount of times this year, so if we set ourselves up expecting us to never draw that low, we’re setting up very unreasonable expectations. We could average 30,000 fans a game and still have a handful of games around the 13K mark (explanation coming tonight), so please, if we expect us to never draw that low then we’re going to come to the mistaken conclusion that the fans here suck, which is simply not the case.

We’re going to have to tolerate a handful of low attendance games this year, just like every team does….how low and how many of them, though, those are the questions I’ll answer tonight.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 19, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Slowinski is a tease, but yes part 2 is set for tonight.

www.draysbay.com

by Tommy Rancel on Apr 19, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If what you say is true

(many more 13K games) it’ll be very difficult to get to what Stu will accept ’average 2.5 mil attendance

If we sell out every game we’re under 3 mil

If we had a 45K capacity, then we could better supply the demand

by Raymondo on Apr 19, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In order to reach 2.5 mil overall attendance

We’ll need to average about 30.5K per game. We did that our innaugural year, but it’ll be very tough to do that this year because of the economic situation. Ideal world, I’d love for us to draw around 31K this year, but I think we do need to anticipate a bit of a hit because of the economy. And so far, that’s what our numbers are looking like. We’ll still draw well, but not 31K well.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Apr 19, 2009 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I miss our record when the crowd is 25k+

Blake
USF--Class of '09

by usfraysfan on Apr 19, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You guys are thinking very narrowly

If you expect robust attendance for every game in an area without stable industry. The Tampa Bay area is supported by the service and tourism sectors – discretionary spending – which is the first to be cut by consumers in a down economy. As of late March, the Bay Area’s unemployment rate is 10.2% (http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/article987738.ece). When your average Johnny Ballfan hears stuff like that, and its everywhere, he becomes extremely hesitant to spend.

That said – I was there last night and it was announced at 32k+ for a mid-April game against a very unsexy White Sox team. Not bad. The team store was pretty hard to maneuver around in, and, judging by where I was sitting in Sec 317, I don’t think the liquor concessions were hurting too much, either.

Perspective.

by PlayOnWords on Apr 19, 2009 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This.

Remember, Stu is a hell of a business man. I doubt he’d put himself in a position where he’d need an unprecedented support level to break even. That 2.5 million number will make him a heck of a profit if it’s met.

Take a 25K average for the season. You figure the average seat goes for 35 bucks. Keep in mind, that’s a conservative estimate, given how expensive some of the seats are, and the price increases for the Marquee/Prime games (Which comprise 34 of the 81 possible games).

Over 81 games (assuming the Rays miss the playoffs), that average brings in $70,875,000. That’s more than the payroll we’re handing out. Add in food sales, parking, merchandise, TV rights, radio rights, and proceeds from the MLB Luxury Tax (which isn’t unsubstantial).

Stu is not going to go broke running this team.

by ReasonableDoubt on Apr 19, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs