The Basepaths Are Hazardous

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 19, 2009 12:16 AM EDT

Remember how we talked about the offense and how, despite a decent OBP and good SLG, we weren't scoring anything more than AL average? Well, the baserunning gaffes might be the culprit.

The entire American League has made 48 outs on the basepaths this season. That doesn't include caught stealings, force plays, or pickoffs. Instead, we're talking someone trying to go home and being tagged out on a sac fly or attempting to take an extra base. Of those 48, the Rays have accounted for seven of them. That's about 15%. The Rays made 68 OOB last season in over 6,300 plate appearances, at this rate they would nearly double that total.

The guilty parties entering last night's game were the Gabes (with three each) and Carl Crawford. Add Carlos Pena to that total and it's getting ridiculous. Since the run value of an out is 0.8, that means the Rays have inadvertently cost themselves about 6 runs this season just through unnecessary baserunning errors. Look, some are inevitably going to occur, but there's no reason the Rays should account for nearly a fifth of the entire AL's outs on the paths.

Data from B-Ref

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Definitely a contributing factor

I would love to see a breakdown of the seven outs. Contextually, how many of them were the third out of the inning? I know at least two were.

That said, we could have easily made up those six runs, if the Rays had any semblance of place discipline… Tonight’s game was quite frustrating.

by plasticman on Apr 19, 2009 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

not all

Not all were third outs, but all are giving away outs.

by Doyouseeit? on Apr 19, 2009 1:39 AM EDT reply actions

Yes, I know that...

My point was that a third out would be more damaging to our scoring runs when OBP was constant. Make a mistake on the base paths with the first out in the inning… OK, move on. Make a mistake on the base paths with the third out, and whoever else is on base gets left there.

by plasticman on Apr 19, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions