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Series Preview: 4/6-4/9 Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Yep, Nick Green is on a major league roster.

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Yep, Nick Green is on a major league roster.

Fittingly, the last time the Rays played Boston, it marked the end of the Red Sox season, this go around marks the beginning of a new one. As far as opening series match-ups go, you cannot do much better than these two teams. Some of the most memorable moments for the Rays came against the Red Sox, including the clinching of the ALCS. That series is still sweet in memory, even if bitter in the face of advancement. 

Of course, the cost of excitement and good baseball is important games immediately. Head-to-records shouldn't matter too much assuming the Rays can take care of non-Sox/Yankee opponents on a routine basis. Still, remaining ~.500 versus both of those squads would go a long way in helping the Rays reach the post-season again.

It's Boston. It's Fenway. It's opening day. As much as I respect Theo Epstein and that front office, I would like nothing more than to obliterate their creation.

Woo, baseball!

Star-divide

4/6: James Shields vs. Josh Beckett (2:05, FSN FL)

4/8: Scott Kazmir vs. Jon Lester (7:10 ESPN2, Sun Sports)

4/9: Matt Garza vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka (1:35, FSN FL)

One of the common knocks on FIP is that good pitchers generally produce ERA that, when compared to their FIP, indicate over performance. Someone should let Josh Beckett know of this phenomenon. Over the last three years, Beckett has posted FIPs of 5.12, 3.08, 3.24 and ERAs of 5.01, 3.27, and 4.03. Throw in his 5.26, 2.95, and 3.55 tRA and you can see the casual fan likely underrates Beckett. As for arsenal, Beckett attacks primarily with his fastball that sits in the mid-90s but also features a curve and change. All combined, Beckett generates nearly 9% swinging strikes and ~40-45% groundballs.

Lester is a southpaw who saw his highest velocity average last year, hitting 92. Like Beckett, Lester relies on his fastball more than any other pitcher, but also throws a curve, a barely used change, and a cutter. Lester found far more success in the majors last year in part because of his ability to get first-pitch strikes nearly 60% of the time. Prior to 2008, Lester's career average was closer to 50%. By now I have a keyboard macro that features phrases like "improved" thanks to Lester, but here's another progression; Lester generated 48% groundballs last season, by far the most since at least 2006 including minor league stints. Lester was a pain in the Rays side most of last year thanks to his dexterity, we'll see if that continues.

Roughly 40% of Matsuzaka's plate appearances against ended in either strikeouts (22%), walks (13%), or homeruns (2%). That's not quite three true outcomes level, but it does tell you about all you need to know about Matsuzaka. He's a good pitcher, an above average one, but there is absolutely no chance in hell that he repeats that ERA given those peripherals. Matsuzaka throws a handful of pitches (92 MPH fastball, 82 slider, 89 cutter, 79 curve, 82 change, 83 split) but as we've seen, throwing a lot of pitches doesn't equal success. Sox fans can talk about how his pitches do not allow for solid contact, yet 2007 suggested anything but that, and how he's super-duper clutch with runners on*. We'll see this year, but frankly there's little reason for me to believe his strand rate is going to remain around 80%.

Starting Lineup:

C Jason Varitek

1B Kevin Youkilis

2B Dustin Pedroia

3B Mike Lowell

SS Jed Lowrie

LF Jason Bay

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

RF J.D. Drew

DH David Ortiz

Basically the same lineup we've become accustomed to. Pedroia and Youkilis are two of the best players in the league and both were re-signed to long-term extensions reeking of savvy thinking. Youkilis took less walks last season but saw his power shoot up, not surprisingly, he also saw less fastballs and more breaking pitches.  Ortiz will likely rebound, not many players go from five consecutive 30+ wRAA seasons to being a sub-20 wRAA hitter. Then again, I guess many hitters don't go from consecutive seasons of sub-15 wRAA to being one of the best hitters in the league either, so who knows. J.D. Drew is the Sox version of B.J. Upton, only without the awesomeness, defensive ability, and speed. I guess that makes him absolutely nothing like B.J., minus the fan base that accuses him of being apathetic and faking injuries.**

Defensively, the Sox will no longer have the ability to run out a defense of Ellsbury/Crisp, which is fantastic news for opponents. More balls should drop as a result. Given the shaky health of Mike Lowell, Drew, Jason Bay, Rocco Baldelli, and David Ortiz, there is a lot that could go wrong for the Sox. Like, Jonathan Van Every starting in the outfield wrong. This Jon Van Every:

Vanevery_medium

via sonsofsamhorn.net

Bullpen:

RH Jonathan Papelbon

RH Manny Delcarmen

LH Hideki Okajima

RH Takashi Saito

RH Ramon Ramirez

RH Justin Masterson

LH Javier Lopez

Do I really have to say anything here? Seeing Papelbon succeed is annoying, the only thing making it worthwhile is knowing he's not in the rotation. The amazing thing about Papelon is how well he pitched last year, and yet he barely topped Mariano Rivera -- 2.03 FIP to 2.01. Keep in mind, this is Papelbon with 10 strikeouts and 1.04 walks per nine. That's a 9.63 K/BB. Somehow, old man Rivera upped that with a 12.83 (!) K/BB ratio. RIvera had never topped 9 K/BB, not along 10, 11, or 12, yet he did last year and got zero attention for it. Both are amazing.

The rest of the group is solid-to-good, just as you would imagine. Basically, it's a staff of about four-to-five set-up types, a relief ace, and Lopez.

Bench:

C George Kottaras

UTL Nick Green

OF Rocco Baldelli

OF/1B Chris Carter

The bench looks okay. Kottaras figures to be Wakefield's personal catcher, given his experience with Charlie Zink. Carter has had a few nice offensive season in the minors. Green and Baldelli are former Rays, but really; how did Green get another gig? Well, apparently he's played the outfield and infield this spring. We need a name for these players who come up as middle infielders then play every position just to earn a spot. The super utility tag does them no justice and calling them out(field)casts is awful.

*Here's the amusing thing about this. I went in search of Edwin Jackson's double play rate in hopes that Daisuke would be higher***. Naturally, that didn't work out right. Daisuke had 138 double play opportunities last year and had 13 actually happen - or 9%. Edwin had 164 and 27 occur - 16% -- compared to their previous years Daisuke's DP% actually dropped by a percent. Edwin? Well, 166 chances in 2007, 12 double plays - 7%. Let's see how this progresses.

**If someone made me GM and told me to build an outfield consisting of stonefaces, these two would be automatics. Does Ichiro count? If so, him too. I would wonder who would change positions between Ichiro and Drew, but I'm guessing neither would care too much.

***Yes I'm comparing Jackson and Matsuzaka because of the walk rates. Unlike Jackson, Matsuzaka actually strikes people out. Another amusing tidbit that came from this, 2008 innings pitches per game started and pitches thrown per games started:

Jackson: 5.8 IP/GS, 97 P/GS

Matsuzaka: 5.8 IP/GS, 100 P/GS

Matsuzaka allowed 18 grand slam opportunities last year, 11 for Edwin. 34 plate appearances with a runner on third with less than 2 outs and only 38% of them scored. Edwin had 39 and 44%. So, a ton of baserunners and ridiculous success in run prevention. Hm. Ever wonder what "regression" looks like when written in Japanese?

退化

---

All statistics referenced come way of FanGraphs, StatCorner, or Baseball-Reference.

0 recs  |  Comment 98 comments |

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Seriously get your own stick (personally I use paretheses to shen light on my mind inner workings)

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Shen = shed (won't this day ever end)

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

dammit

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The real question is would the Sternfans and Rays4242's of the world actually use it?

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

.

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/8/12/592526/gdt-pt-2#8068495

I got to sighns for Aug 30, that wasn’t distgusting, it was gross/Aybar is a dildo
by LONGO4PREZ08 on Aug 13, 2008 12:51 AM EDT on GDT Pt. 2

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

That has got to win an award. This guy should be reinstated just to give people a reason to yell

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know my stats and I know that the exact conversation of Percy and James meeting.
"Hi, im Percival, but i go by Percy, anyways can you teach me your change up?"

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not much longer now

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Were you the guy that put all the gayman images in

That’s more immature than Pat Bat after telling some floozy it’s time to go

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They rule nothing

Their jurisdiction is no where, their tax basis is nil, and they have no infrastructure, if this was Civ IV I already would have driven them from the game.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jack Kerouac?

Just kidding. I remember who you’re talking about though. He always sounded so angry.

B Rad the Ray Fan

by B Ray on Apr 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I prefer how Hubert Selby does it

As the tempo accelerates he completely loses punctuation.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think what this team may be lacking is a true ginger this year

We all saw the boost that DanJo gave us last season. With that in mind I propose we go out and find one so that we can continue the streak. GINGERNOMICS BITCH.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It looks like D-Lee is giving him a shoulder to cry on.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THE CURSE OF NICK GREEN

I hate the red sox with the power of a thousand crashing cymbals. I hope we smoke Beckett.

by yeseggs on Apr 2, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FTFY

I hate the red sox with the power of a thousand crashing cymbals 50,000 didgeridoos, a whole army of didgeridoos.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only thing that worries me about our team is that we have very few assholes

Beckett
Youk
Pedroia
Papelfuck

The Sox are practically overflowing with assholes. Our team is just too nice.

by plasticman on Apr 2, 2009 5:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How often do fans of a team actually consider their players assholes?

I know OTM hates Shields, and I thought that was impossible.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 2, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's because he tried to turn their Cocoa into a Crisp

We have some of the nicest guys in the MLB.

Plus our asshole is not only exotic (from down under), but both comic and epic in his assholeness (Cabrera).

Their’s are just run of the mill assholes.

by plasticman on Apr 2, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dunno.

I could see other fans hating B.J., Pena, Evan, and maybe Garza/Price.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 2, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what's to hate?

BJ is quiet, carlos has a perpetually positive attitude, evan can be a bit cocky at times so i guess that’s MAYBE understandable…

by yeseggs on Apr 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here we go with what I have heard

B.J is lazy and just wants to get a paycheck. (I have called out people on this so hard at games. I stood up and told someone to STFU on giving B.J. trouble.
Evan is just a pretty boy punk who thinks he is better than everyone else.
Garza is this stupid nuthead who goes crazy.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Garza is directing his Crazy at anyone other than himself.

I could maybe understand a dislike of Balfour after that incident with that White Sock whose name escapes me. (It made me like him more, FWIW)

by yeseggs on Apr 2, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say or think any of these.

I hear it at games. It makes me really pissed as I said I have called many people out for hating on players.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 2, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Same

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 2, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree.

Flo-Rida’s new jam Right Round is where it’s at.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 2, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

Anything Flo-Rida. Someone needs to walk out to “I’m on a Boat”

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 2, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One time I just wanna hear BJ come out to James Brown's Payback

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

James Brown or nothing

Beej is the coolest Mofo since the funky prince

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DAMN I love me some Willy Aybar.

best bench player in the majors?……

by yeseggs on Apr 2, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Depends on the fan.

My friend who’s a huge Sawx fan hates Youks and Bay.

by rglass44 on Apr 2, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your friend sounds like a smart guy

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Youk whines all the time.

I choose to hate no one else so I can focus my red laser of hate on young Kevin.

Plus he looks about 20 years older than he is. What is up with that.

by davelrogers on Apr 2, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On Lester

apparently he has a new change

by plasticman on Apr 2, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

All those 1st pitch fastballs could use it.

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RJ

Can you extrapolate a bit on the dice K stuff at the bottom?

by plasticman on Apr 2, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Like this?

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Incidentally Ricky Oh is amazing

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 2, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only makes sense

We pick up where we left off…

RAYS BASEBALL: ALL YOUR BASES ARE BELONG TO US

by JMB on Apr 2, 2009 5:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Why is the series in Boston?

I’d think starting at the Trop would make more sense, no?

AL East 2009:

1. Rays
2. Sox
3. Yankees

by FloridaownsFSU on Apr 3, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is at least 3 years in a row we open on the road.

I have to think the big market teams get priority on having opening day because we never seem to have it. I cant think of another explanation. The car race should be cleaned up in time for a monday night game so I dont think that is the reason.

by Devil Ray on Apr 3, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dear Red Sox,

All you motherfreakers are gonna pay. You are the ones who are the ball-lickers. We’re gonna freak your mothers while you watch and cry like little babies. Once we get to Boston and find those Red Sawx freaks who are making that run at our division, we’re gonna make ‘em eat our poop, then poop out our poop, then eat their poop which is made up of our poop that we made ’em eat. Then you’re all you motherfreaks are next. Love, J[P] and Silent Beej.

by rglass44 on Apr 3, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ah a great movie.

Kevin Smith movies are great.

Swav or Die.

by SRQman on Apr 3, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Were great

Jersey Girl?

Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.

-Al Lopez

by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 3, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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