The Bullpen Part Two
We've talked a lot about the bullpen lately. Mostly about how most of them aren't as bad as they were being labeled. Without much of a surprise, they aren't. Let's look at the four arms thriving in our pen.
J.P. Howell has a K/9 rate of 10.13 and BB/9 of 1.69 even with a BABIP over .420. For someone who averages nearly 40% balls, it's pretty outstanding that he's managed to limit his walks thus far. Hitters are whiffing on more than 10% of his pitches, a nudge higher than last year. If the Rays absolutely must have a designated closer as the only way to rid ourselves of Troy Percival, Howell might be the best choice. His stuff generates hacks and he's a lefty without overly discernable platoon splits.
Brian Shouse has faced 13 righties and 6 lefties. His raw stats are going to look rough because of his usage patterns thus far - which has been largely as the second mop-up guy. Shouse has allowed one lefty to reach base thus far this season, and that was on a single. Shouse's job is to get lefties out so expect that platoon rate to expand pari passu. Oh, and while you shouldn't expect nearly 80% grounders all year, Shouse is getting everyone to pound the ball into the ground at this time.
Joe Nelson is growing on me at a ridiculously quick rate. His silly Vulcan grip and desire to cannibalize Troy Percival (see Rays program) are residue in my cerebrum. Nelson is the perfect example of how someone with two pitches can succeed. His mid-to-high-80's fastball shows the strain of years and surgeries past, and yet he still uses it nearly 70% of the time. His ridiculous change-up sits about 10 miles per hour lower and keeps righties and lefties off balance all the same. Nelson has thrown a ninth of the total amount of innings he did in 2008 already, and he's thrown 123 pitches, the most he's thrown in a major league season is 931. Not sure how important either of those figures really are, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Finally, there's Lance Cormier. His BABIP is .401, that'll come to Earth soon enough. I hate to sound like a broken record, but Cormier is doing exactly what he did last season, only in an inflated run environment. That's absolutely perfect. A modest amount of swings and misses coupled with groundballs and nothing leaving the playing field is going to make Cormier valuable to any team with a defense as strong as ours.
No need to beat a dead horse on the others, although Grant Balfour's whiff rate is back around what we would expect. Now, to just throw more strikes overall.
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So, if we're looking at the middle of the Yankees order
in the 8th inning, are you going with Howell or Balfour, with the other to pick up the 9th?
If it's righty heavy I would lean toward Balf and lefty heavy I would bring in JP
I think there are significant advantages to using either one back to back. After seeing the heat hitting JP would be tough, and after seeing dancing baseballs I don’t think many guys could touch the heater. Either way YES PLEASE.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 20, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, you misread it.
I was asking who you’d go with to face the middle of the Yankees order in the 8th inning.
I think the answer is Howell, and you probably agree, with Balfour taking the 9th. I guess it’s kind of stating the obvious.
I think Howell is the definite choice
I am also more intrigued now by the thought of Niemann coming out of the bullpen and the stability he may provide for it overall (i.e. by rendering Dan Wheeler obsolete and causing him to disappear).
Blake
USF--Class of '09
I disagree with the notion that Niemann would be better out of the bullpen
however I can only back this up with observational data. If I could find a site which gives splits for first time through the order versus second or third time through (specifically in the minors) I would put together a fanpost on it. I feel like Niemann doesn’t get worse the second or third time through the order, which is the mark of a starter who needs to move to the BP. I really wish I could find something, but I hate the thought of Niemann in the BP just yet. He’s been groomed for years as a SP and he’s still pretty darned good at it. 3-4 starter not out of the question. The most compelling argument to me as to why he should move to the BP is his injury history, not that he would simply be better there. If there’s no room for him on this team as a SP (which appears to be the case) then move him for a BP arm and spect or something, but his value is wasted in the BP IMO.
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Apr 20, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
At the minimum, he's got 2-3 more starts to prove his value as a starter.
The idea that he’ll be better out of the pen is typically support by a lot of evidence suggesting the transition from starter to reliever leads to more success. It doesn’t always work out that way, but that’s just the way most relievers start out: as failed (or lesser starters).
Either way, he’s going there for David Price-involved reasons.
Check this post from Sky out from last year.
Very good look at what makes a starter a good candidate for a RP.
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/8/31/604873/jackson-v-sonny-bullpen-de
Not too bad.
He definitely does, though. Over 3 per game in the minors the last 3 years. Not too bad, but not great.
From the DRB Guide on Lance Cormier
His BABIP and LD% were in line with his career averages, so it seems that he is candidate to repeat his 2008 performance or even improve in 2009 with a better defense.
Ding!
www.draysbay.com
Jennings with another huge night!
3-3 with HR and 3B… Hellickson was pretty good too 5.1 inn 3h 2r 2bb 7k
Something tells me that .471 babip is unsustainable
Lets see him raise that walk rate first. Or at the very least knock a couple points off his k-rate
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 20, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
RJ, how tempted were you to try and put a dugout ripoff in that caption?
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 20, 2009 11:03 PM EDT reply actions
o_O
Even though I hate set closers, Howell as one would be straight dope.
by Top Gun Numba 1 on Apr 20, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The bullpen is very good
The problem is our worst two pitchers pitching in the highest of leverage. That really is it. I’m sure at the end of the year we took the weighted average of whatever pitching metric you wanted of our bullpen we would be in the top 10 at the absolute worst. But when the two pitchers that would be dragging that metric down the most are pitching in the toughest spost then that just creates our little issue.
I’m sure most if not every team has two pitchers on their staff that are nearly as bad as Wheeler and Percival. The difference is those are the guys throwing in the 10 to 2 games for those teams and not the 3 to 2 games like they do for us.
If we held leverage constant I really think we’d have one of the best pens in the league.
This is clearly a problem with Maddon. I know managers supposedly don’t impact games..but how is this not impacting games?
by matthan on Apr 21, 2009 8:42 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
He at least has to see if these guys can work it out
You don’t dump somebody after a couple of bad innings. I think they will have no problem getting rid of one or both of these guys by the end of the May if there is no progress.
Do what you love to do and give it your very best. Whether it's business or baseball, or the theater, or any field. If you don't love what you're doing and you can't give it your best, get out of it. Life is too short. You'll be an old man before you know it.
-Al Lopez
by Sandy Kazmir on Apr 21, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Generally you are right
But in those cases it is a matter of pitch control or a pitcher with good stuff that for some reason is getting hit. Dan Wheeler just does not have any stuff anymore. The quality of his pitches just aren’t suddenly going to get better.
What you are saying more or less applies to someone like Balfour. His stuff says he should be doing better than what he is. Heck I’m surprised Wheeler is doing as well as he is. How bad would Wheeler be in Durham or Montgomery? Would he best the worst pitcher on those staffs? Throwing 84-87MPH every single pitch belt high just doesn’t cut it in professional baseball. Let alone MLB.

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