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The Long Post About Gabe Gross

How can something so average be so valuable?(Photo by Dennis Adair)

Some people hate when I write about Gabe Gross because it seems like I'm making a big deal over a pretty mundane player. The funny thing is I'm the first one to admit he's average. Honestly, Gross is probably the type of player I should hate. Last year, during his ‘clutch' run he got more pub than he should have. I always root for the undervalued players, so naturally the hoopla died and I found myself a permanent fan of Gross.

Lately I've been thinking more and more about the Gross trade, and how beautiful it really was. Given that two days ago was the year anniversary, I figured I'd finally put those thoughts down.

 

Star-divide

Gross was designated for assignment by the Brewers, which seems oddly appropriate, prior to the deal which sent Josh Butler to Milwaukee. Butler was hardly an impressive pitching prospect. As a former second round pick (out of San Diego State University) Butler was entering his second full season in the organization, and had struggled previously at High-A ball, posting a 5.77 FIP. Three starts into the season, Butler was doing better, a 4.02 FIP, but his strikeout numbers had again dipped.

Sure, the Rays were basically admitting they missed on an early round picks, yet unflustered by draft status and completely trusting in their talent evaluation methods, Andrew Friedman pulled the trigger. In return, the Rays would get Gabe Gross (much to Dan Johnson’s dismay), a 29-year-old corner outfielder previously drafted in the first round of the 2001 draft. Gross had played in parts of four seasons prior to 2008, but was mostly resigned to being a reserve outfielder with platoon friendly splits.

Of course, guys with career lines of .245/.343/.410 can only amass a certain level of fanfare. It probably doesn’t help that Gross went 0-3 with a walk and a strikeout in his first game. Plus, Gross just doesn’t look like much of a player. This is the same organization that has seen guys who look like ballplayers by the masses. Gross had nothing on Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, or B.J. Upton. He wasn’t overly fast, or strong, or really anything. He was Gabe Gross, and unbeknownst to most, that would be exactly what the Rays wanted.

I remember writing about how Gross had power potential, despite his average on-base percentage (thanks to a lackluster batting average). This was still when I was oblivious to defense mattering so much. I would like to think Gross is the perfect litmus test for how much I’ve learned about the game within this calendar year. (By the way, people probably take admitting you’ve gained more knowledge as a bad thing, and frankly that’s pretty stupid.)

Then something happens that nobody anticipates. Gabe Gross becomes ridiculously prone to coming up in game-altering situations and succeeding. Gross did it once. Then again. Again. Once more. There was the homerun off of Eduardo Mujica that pulled the Rays to a 7-7 tie against the Indians. Perhaps the most unlikely homerun ever; Matt Thornton, the giant flamethrowing lefty, throwing a pitch to Gross who turned on it and put it into the stands while giving the Rays a win in extras. A hit off Mariano Rivera that scored Jonny Gomes and created one of the more memorable celebrations in Rays history. And so on.

The peak of Gross’ popularity was short lived. Eventually the ‘clutch’ hits stopped coming, and in the playoffs he slumped miserably, even defensively. We all know what’s gone on since then, so instead of rehashing the present, let’s focus on the moment of the trade again.

Previous to April 24, the Rays were using the three-headed “monster” of Nathan Haynes, Jonny Gomes, and Eric Hinske in right field. With Cliff Floyd out due to an injury, this allowed two of the three to play any given time. Friedman and the rest of the front office had obviously established that while Hinske and Gomes were offensively equal or superior to Gross, neither was close to Gross defensively. So they did the only thing logical; rotated Gomes and Hinske at DH while letting Gross get most of the starts in right field.

An outfield of Carl Crawford/B.J. Upton/Gabe Gross was the finest defensive unit the Rays could produce; giving their pitchers, especially flyball types like Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine, a much needed helping hand on nights when the balls hit were more than routine flyouts.

Why was Gross the target? What made him so desirable?

The key to building a good team is to amassing as many positive contributors as possible. Unless you’re the New York Yankees, you probably can’t buy too many players who will produce four or five wins on a consistent basis. (The Yankees are getting players who are usually past their prime anyways, but nobody ever really mentions that.) Given the financial restraints of the Rays compared to other teams, the need to draft, pick through waivers, trade, and sign minor league free agents becomes more relevant to success.

Since Gross is average, he’s a positive contributor – which is a bit of a mind tease. Growing up, we’re taught that average is bad. If you have a 2.0 GPA (basically all Cs) then you aren’t qualifying for the honor roll or Ivy League schools anytime soon. Average looks and average personality? Forget about it.

But in baseball, average is good. Average means that player is one of the best at his job in the world. The numbers of great and good players are smaller than the amount of average players, which is smaller than the amount of fringe and poor players.

So here’s average Gabe Gross, making next to nothing for a salary (relative to other baseball players) being pushed off a roster. Friedman scoops in and picks him up for essentially free.  Gross doesn’t exactly fit your prototypical American League corner outfielder, yet he’s still about as valuable of a player as a team would designate for assignment, and he’s the absolute perfect Friedman player.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->A)     <!--[endif]-->Underrated by the masses for the skillset he possesses.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->B)      <!--[endif]-->Easily attainable.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->C)      <!--[endif]-->Cheap.

<!--[if !supportLists]-->D)     <!--[endif]-->Fills a need

It’s simply a brilliant move. The type that goes unnoticed until you look back and realize that Gross should never have been available. Gross didn’t win us the AL East, or the AL itself, but he did play a role, and he played it about as well as you could ask someone to do it.

Really, it’s less about Gross – however talented and useful he is – and more about what Gross stands for. He’s the ultimate residue of a front office that knows how to manipulate the trade market to build a successful team. If you can’t appreciate Gabe for his play, appreciate him for the meaning.

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Gross

The ultimate thrill in Rays baseball is exploiting market inefficiencies to find success. That is what Gabe Gross ’08 represents. That is what Bartlett/Garza for Delmon Young represents.

Another part of Rays baseball is knowing when to cut bait. The development of Zobrist at the plate combined with his worst-case average raw outfield abilities should at least earn him the starting job. His outfield skills will improve, how much we do not know. Last night, BA commented that George Hendrick believes Zo was playing out of position ll this time and is a natural outfielder. We saw what happened to BJ with OF development. Lets test out what it can do for Zo and his Magic Bat.

I don’t see the harm in keeping the Gabes around for now. Though come post-seaosn time if we have the fortune of making it, I’d like to see Jennings to fill the Nando role of pinch-runner.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Is Zobrist really going to be 10 runs better offensively than the platoon?

Becuase its fair to say Gross/Kapler will be worth at least 7-12 runs this year in the field

by Navi's_Navy on Apr 23, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome post.

Is he really an average player though? Maybe my perception’s warped, but the decent slugging and obp rates (343 isn’t bad when you’re batting 240) with the awesome defense… doesn’t that make for a slightly above average player? Or are we just getting into semantics?

Oh, and yes, for God’s sake Gabriel, change your at bat song. Or atleast go all the way and make it Amazing Grace.

by Suttree on Apr 23, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Semantics.

He’s probably a touch above average when his arm is taken int account.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bingo

In 2009, an above average player, in a pre-Friedman world, average at best. Onto the next inefficiency!

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

My only question on the "average" thing is his splits

Aren’t you just taking into his accounts his number and slash line against righties? He rarely hits lefties. So he truly isn’t “average” if he was playing full time.

There would be a world of difference between a player that hits lefties and righties with Gross’ slash and defense and what Gross does just against righties.

I’m not against platoons. They have their benefits. Two players like Gross is still cheaper than someone that would do the same thing vs both hands. But it does take up a roster spot. Thats important also.

Basically I think we just have to make sure we compare apples to apples.

Gross against righties is average (or above average if you want to call it that). If he was playing full time he certainly would be nowhere near that. So it doesn’t make sense to compare him to players that play full time.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t know that its necessary to compare apples to apples. All teams have reserve otufielders. In a platoon, one of the reserves just happens to play regularly. As long as a team can secure a platoon complement its perfectly acceptable IMO to call an average platoon hitter with very good defense a more valuable commodity than an average full time hitter.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well it depends in what context

If you are trying to compare which player is a better baseball player, then you have to look at all their skills. That is independent of roster spots, salary, etc. Gabe Gross cannot hit lefties. To ignore that when making an analysis on his baseball skills is just absurd.

Thankfully in order to build a roster with a fair amount of roster spots you do not need each player to be well rounded.

You can take two lesser players with severe platoon splits and “create” a player that would produce better than one player who is individually better than both.

However you still cannot with a straight face say that one of those players is individually better than the player that can play decently full time.

There is just a huge difference between saying Gabe Gross + his other platoonmate = average to above average player and saying Gabe Gross individually is above average.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suppose

But baseball is not a one on one sport. B/c you must account for roster spots and being the architect of a team, I still maintain to the Rays Gross is a more valuable commodity. Its all relative.

Even if I am assembling a team from scratch, I would go for a an average one-sided platoon player with a good glove knowing I can secure the second half later. Saves money and creates a superior synthetic “player”.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

You are looking at it from the context of the team

Which is fine. Andrew Friedman doesn’t care if Gross is a better player than some other teams everyday RFer. What Friedman cares about is the production of our RF compared to another teams production out of the RF spot.

However that does not mean you cannot compare players based upon their skills.

What you are saying is if the Rays only pitched Shields at home and the Stros only pitched Wandy at home that they’d be two of the greatest pitchers in the history of the world.

You can’t just ignore half of the potential playing time just because the player sucks so bad at it that he doesn’t get that playing time.

Gross is a below average baseball player that just so happens to do two things average to above average. Friedman and Maddon are able to maximize what he does well and ignore what he does very poorly. That doesn’t make Gross a good player, but rather it makes Friedman and Maddon smart.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we are agreeing

Its archaic to compare Player A vs Player B. Fine I’ll concede in a world where Gabe Gross is forced to bat every day, I’d probably take the alternative. However, thats not the way you construct a team. So in terms of relative value, Gabe Gross has more.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not always

There is finite amount of roster spots. You can only platoon so many spots. In a perfect setting you’d have unlimited roster spots and you could create the best “synthetic” player based upon specific player matchups, lefty/righty, ballpark dimensions, situations etc.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

For example

Given unlimited roster spots and a desire to find the best “synthetic” player and maximize relative value as you put it, the Rays would find a right handed contact first basemen to use in situations vs lefties where Carlos Pena would have a high strikeout rate.

obviously in the real world we don’t have the flexibility to have such a player on the roster. and of course the supply of such players is close to nil.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thats True

But again, the formula of Pena with a platoon in right is the correct formula for the Rays. IMO, the platoon days should be nearing an end anyhow thanks to the Magic Bat.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is easy enough to figure out.

Say he gets 600 PA (70% versus righties, 30% versus lefties) and that he’s around 15-20 runs defensively. All of this playing time is in the corner outfield.

-7.5 + 20 = 12.5 takes care of positional and playing time. Add 17 for defense and you have 29.5. Assuming league average wOBA around .330,

His sample size against lefties is ridiculously small, but even if you think he’s the worst hitter ever against them (.500 OPS) and a .750 OPS hitter against righties, you get -15 offensive runs. 29.5-15 = 14.5. That’s 1.5 wins. Just shy of average, and that’s assuming he’s truly an abomination against lefties.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he's closer to .600, let's say .550.

You get 1.7 wins. .600 gets you 2 wins.

Of course you could argue he’s not a true talent 15 < x <20 defender either and that his defensive skills will decline soon.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course its all a rough estimation

I wasn’t saying he was a bad player. I just don’t think its fair to compare a platoon player to a full time player using basic metrics.

But I do think he is really bad vs lefties. Possibly the worst ever haha.

In terms of “who is better” (assuming defense is the same) you have to say a guy that has a .750 OPS vs both lefties and righties is better than a .800 guy vs righties and a .550 guy vs lefties. The guy that can hit both hands is a superior player.

In the context of creating a team that isn’t always the player you want. It depends on roster flexibility and in this case supply of players that can hit left handed pitching and not right handed pitching. If there was zero roster flexibility Friedman would take the .750 OPS guy every single time and dump Gross. if there was infinite roster flexibility and supply Friedman would take Gross + find someone that hits lefties at better than a .750 OPS.

I just think when analyzing a baseball player you have to look at the whole picture. Analyzing how he fits into a team, as part of the larger puzzle, is something different entirely.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

And I just did that, and he's still average.

Your point about “You want the guy who hits lefties and righties if you have a choice.” is pretty silly. If you’re offering two players, both with .750 OPS, equal hands, defense, contracts, ages, and one hits .750/.750 and the other doesn’t, of course you take the .750/.750 one. But that’s not reality and really that’s the entire point here.

The Rays can’t afford to have 9 of those types at this time. That’s why we need players like Gabe Gross and eventually Matt Joyce.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is just not an endless supply of roster spots

On our squad we are platooning RF correctly and we are lucky enough not to have any other obvious candidates. But if you look around the league there are quite a few teams that should be platooning players that just cannot due to roster limitations. At some point you have to pick “who is the best overall player” due to roster limitations. The Rays aren’t pinned in the corner right now, but many teams are with some positions.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe they should manage their roster better then.

The Rays roster construction is ridiculous. Probably the best in the league. It’s none of my concern that other teams aren’t that good.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

And seriously.

If it comes down to a designated long-reliever or a player like Kapler/Gross, you should take the OFer over the guy pitching once a week in low leverage situations.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Comparing the overall value of two players can occur with any position. You just can’t look at the best of every player and try to mix and match. Every team at some point has to decide which player is ultimately better than another player.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

This really isn't the case.

Otherwise teams wouldn’t always carry 12 pitchers in place of an extra positional player.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

So Rays roster management is above average

Isn’t the average what’s being discussed?

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Apr 23, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

But different situations warrant different analysis

I mean, for the Rays this isn’t a big deal, but for another team it might be. To ask whether or not Gabe Gross is average is to ask how he would to contribute to the team which represents the mean. The average team doesn’t have a roster constructed with the elegance and balance of the Rays’

I could be wrong though

by staplemaniac on Apr 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

That is why it is definitely two separate things to analyze Gabe Gross as the overall baseball player and Gabe Gross how he meshes in with certain roster construction.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

We've done both.

He’s ~2 and ~3.

An average player.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well said

For a team that can afford a platoon Gross is the better option. For a team that can’t he’s going to frustrate fans. He was a very good fix for our 08 roster.

When you have a magnificent switch hitting utility man with a Magic bat like Zobrist you can create all sorts of fun platoon.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

The average team also has more money to spend on its players.

Meaning they should, in theory, have the ability to get more well-rounded talent.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we are in a way saying the same thing

You can’t make the best synthetic player with every position due to roster limitations. However it is just absurd to compare a portion of synthetic player (essentially ignoring his faults) and compare it to the output of an everyday player.

I see where you analyzed if Gross was playing full time. Like I was saying I think he is a below average player, which is pretty much what you showed. I do think you overestimate his defense and I think at best he is a .550 ops guy vs lefties.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

But he's also a .800 versus righties guy, which I underestimated.

So we’re talking about .050 OPS points that weren’t added, meaning he’s right around 2 wins. Oh look, average.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many major league corner outfielders are positive contributors?

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm just asking

How many major league corner outfielders would be at least ~2 wins?

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

because like you said the word average is a mind tease

I haven’t been saying Gross is a bad player. I just don’t like it when say someone ignores Gross talents hitting from the left side, but counts Shields’ problems pitching on the road. They both exist and they both should count when looking at the player. Of course teams can work around both deficiencies if they so choose.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Amen.

Hitting same-hand pitching is a far more difficult obstacle to overcome than pitching on the road. Shields will begin to pitch well on the road.

by FreeZorilla on Apr 23, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

I’m just pointing out his stats would like better if those road starts didn’t exist. It just seems illogical to ignore half the equation when dealing with the talent of a particular baseball player. I don’t doubt Shields will get it figured out. Gross will always suck against lefties (which is probably being kind) but he does fit our team perfectly. I definitely was not bashing him. He works for us.

by matthan on Apr 23, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is going in circles.

I’m going back to writing about Jeff Niemann and getting ready for today’s game.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

25 LFers

20 RFers

Gross was just above Vladimir Guerrero.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

You are both right.

There were 18 RF and 18 LF who had better WARs than Gross last year when he was usually platooned and had a WAR of 2.4. If he played everyday and that dropped to 2, he would be in the bottom third of corner outfielders in the league. Thus, he is a below average major league outfielder. This is, however, a valuable commodity.

by RaysTheRoof on Apr 23, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

How'd you use all those negative signs?

Did SBN change the strike-through thing?

Test test test

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 23, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right now.....

He’s refining the texture of the bench. I’ll admit that Gabe is probably a good teammate and good defender. But, we’re losing right now and he’s been placed in bench reserve. So it tells me, Joe sees hope the other players can come around and no real use for playing Gabe right now, either of them. I’m personally a big fan of giving a guy AB’s every day to me atleast when I played its the only way to have any kind of consistency ..(long-term or short-term) Guys like Gross and Kapler are good at showing up and one giving you good D and the other a little better athleticism. These stats we see on here are for stat people, Joe and Andy are in the business to win and keep their job. One or two wins a year by any player including the “stars” will not keep Joe as the general same for Andrew.

by RayGuy3 on Apr 23, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions  

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